Tech Maven Fritz Maffry Focuses on Electric Transportation
Here are a few words on the adoption of electric vehicles from my Kansas City, MO-based colleague Fritz Maffry. – Craig
PICKUP TRUCKS RACING TO ELECTRIC BIG TIME
GM and Ford are on crash programs to get electric pickup trucks ready. To be clear, their hands were forced by Tesla, and their reacting to defend their cash cow. The timing and importance to their existing business models makes this imperative. It’s still hard to imagine their outplaying Tesla in this regard. This has major implications for St. Louis and Kansas City, as both are large scale centers of production for pickup trucks.
Nissan and Mercedes are close behind, and VW is partnering with Ford to enter the game. This will have huge implications, and further demonstrates that the tipping point has already happened; now it is just a matter of where we are on the continuum.
GREAT ELECTRICS WAY BEYOND EXPECTATIONS TO LAUNCH
Probably three dozen are near launch; there are rapidly expanding great options. The coming releases from Audi, Porsche, and Nissan in the near-term are such a step up from where we are now. For example, Porsche is doubling production plans, based on the reception to their apparently pretty outstanding market offering. Audi also has a great design. Nissan has completely gone for “fantastic!” with their next generation electric. How good these are, and the collection of benefits, from quiet cabin, to low maintenance, to incredible performance are all nearing the point where near parity costs and overwhelming advantages change the game at scale.
THINK TRACKLESS STREETCARS, WITH AMAZING ORCHESTRATION
Regionally the discourse about streetcar extensions is running out of believers. There are much cheaper, more flexible ways to accomplish what needs to be done on the forward path of revolutions coming from the tech companies through autonomous shuttles. This has to be fully examined and compared; fresh review will almost certainly arrive at the conclusion that strategy and plans should change. The smartest companies in technology are way past that conclusion now. It is time for the regional bubble to get that too.
ALL KINDS OF FORMATS OF PODS
Coming are big shuttles, small shuttles, passenger shuttles, delivery shuttles, dedicated shuttles, private shuttles, public shuttles, optimized shuttles for the disabled and special requirements groups, including the aging. The Consumer Electronics Show affirmed this in spades. How come the regional entities have not gotten ahead of this curve and figured out a proper road map to harness the best forward approach of technology?
More here.
TESLA’S GAME
Elon is leading again in battery cost, software, market channel efficiencies, and integrated renewables strategies. He’s driving development cycles that are incredibly awkward for his competitors in terms of keeping up. He’s is driving costs down towards realizing or getting so close to parity that costs are not a factor going forward. To be sure, there are business uncertainties in the game. There are still the three key areas he is rushing to accomplish great things in: the $35K price target, the pickup truck, and autonomous transit surprises.
Handicapping the probabilities, we like his approach. Of course he routinely walks a tightrope, but guess what: so do Ford and GM now.
Craig and Fritz,
“THINK TRACKLESS STREETCARS” Ah, you do realize these exist and have for more than a century? They’re called Buses or trolley buses. Tracks were developed to save energy when moving very large heavy vehicles overcoming friction and inertia.
The economics of autonomous shuttles, (sort of free taxis) would be difficult to assess.
As for the announcement by Ford and GM of BEV pick up trucks, like Tesla, the are more of a token concept than a reality.
Toyota, the worlds largest manufacturer of Pick-up vehicles believes that such vehicles would prove uneconomic with the present battery technology, and Tesla agrees.
A pick up truck, is a poor choice of platform for a BEV. BEV performance is not deigned to cope with extreme gradients, speed over difficult terrain, variances in load or climate.
These conditions all reduce battery range and lead to excessive battery wear.
Tesla estimates the Tesla Pick up price to be higher than $87,000 which is a lot for a tradesman, when a fully loaded Ford F100 can be less that half that price, and with gasoline at under $3 per gallon there isn’t much incentive.
The 160 kWh battery pack envisioned for the Tesla pick-up is double that of a Model X, giving a range of around 350 to 500 miles when empty.
The difference between a car and a pick-up becomes evident when exposed to real world trials.
Tesla’s prototypes reveled unreliability issues and ranges of between 50-90 miles when operating in real world conditions, with 5 adults, a full load, high gradients, uneven surfaces and hot/cold weather requiring heating/cooling.
It’s true most pick-ups, like SUV’s, never leave suburban streets or use the capacities for which they were designed, but that sort of owner isn’t attracted to a BEV.
Toyota may be correct when they point out Ford and GM are simply paying a token gesture to Californian politicians.
Enthusiasm is great, but a little realism is also required.