Could Climate Change Be a Randomly Occurring Event?
As noted on the Windfuels website, “no year (from 1880 when records began) before 1973 was hotter than 1973. Every year since 1978 was hotter than 1978.”
Could this have happened by chance? Of course. If global temperatures are randomly occurring, each of those years would have a 50-50 chance of being hotter or colder than the reference year. Thus the probability of the 93 years before 1973 and the 40 years since 1978 falling in line would be 1 out of 2 raised to the power of 93+40=133, which is just over 10^40. By reference, there are about 10^25 drops of water in Earth’s oceans.
Craig,
I hope you will forgive my cynicism when I fail to be impressed by your reliance on an obscure little blog selling a dubious wind energy concept as reliable,authoritative source material !
Where you manage to find these obscure references always amazes me, but I especially liked the Old Testament quote from Isaiah 2:4. Now the prophet Isaiah lived around 2700 years ago and none of his predictions has yet occurred, but than again maybe he just hasn’t been given enough time !
Much the same with the predictions and surmises of your modern day David Doty. ” ol’ Dave aappears to be fairly well meaning, harmless individual, but not someone to be regarded with any degree of gravitas.
Even a soundly based technology must be able to prove itself valuable without having to create artificially constructed economic environment.
I live mostly in the State of Victoria, Australia. Toward the end of a historically long and sever drought, (happens ever hundred years or so) a burst of very hyped “green” advocacy occured.
Highly respected scientists, academics and activists announced that due to CC/GW these weather conditions would now become the normal state of the climate.
In response the leftist state government borrowed a vast sum of money and built a large desalination plant. The same year the drought broke and for the next 10 years the plant has remained an expensive white elephant.
Water is still produced,(albeit uneconomically) by the plant to prevent the facility from deteriorating from lack of use. As water rates keep increasing the people of Victoria are beginning to wonder why all the natural water infrastructure ( including waste water management, reclamation and storage) is being neglected.
(The cost of the loans and desalination losses have eaten up the budget)
Just this weeks, the sunny state of South Australia’s long awaited solar power facility promised to the industrial city of Port Augusta.
Port Augusta’s economic existence used to rely on a large coal fired power facility, suppling not only the City with cheap power, but the entire State.
Again, a newly elected leftist government relying on “green’ party coalition partners to win government decide to end the coal facility, and rely on a huge investment in a state of the art Solar facility.
The facility was lauded by every scientist, expert, activist, and those suggesting it may cost too much, be uneconomic or just not prove adequate were derided, called ‘deniers’ and became the butt of every comedian’s wit.
Alas, this week saw the end of what has been a very expensive folly. Not only could the plant never have competed with the far more economic alternative of simply buying surplus power from NSW And Victoria, both coal powered state.
The ambitious Aurora Solar Thermal Power Project, received a budget of $650 million for construction and commissioning.
This was to be a showcase for solar technology, in a perfect location.
The Aurora Solar Thermal Power Project would have been the world’s biggest solar tower and molten salt storage plant.
Today the half-finished project lies derelict after the builder, US-based SolarReserve company behind the project, announced it was unable to raise any more finance for the vastly over budget project.
Since the project first ran into trouble, the government has scoured the world trying to interest anyone to finish the project, offering an additional grant of $110 million taxpayer funds to help.
Even the Chinese turned down the offer.
The Project backers originally claimed the to be able to economically deliver electricity at no more than $78/MWh (including a government subsidy).
Despite this figure being below the actual cost of operating the plant, it was considered to be worthwhile and the government approved construction despite rival bids from Gas fired plant operators. (South Australia has abundant natural gas reserves)
Confidence in the technology hasn’t been helped by the problems and failures bedeviling a sister project in the US, the is fated Crescent Dunes facility.
The technology still has fans, but like all technologies the dynamics have to be right for the project to economic.
All South Australian’s can do is watch sadly as ships laden with South Australian LPG sail for Port Augusta to provide cheap clean power for the people, and industries, of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China etc.
.