Take a Cool Guess—The Fun Quiz on Renewable Energy and Environmental Sustainability. Today’s Topic: Is the European Heat Wave an Example of Anthropogenic Global Warming In Action?
Question: The five hottest summers in Europe’s 600-year history of record keeping have all occurred in the last 20 years. What is the probability that this is a random occurrence, and thus that the theory of AGW (anthropogenic global warming) is not at work here? How would one calculate that?
Answer: Can be found at Clean Energy Answers.
Relevance: Still June, it was 111 degrees F in France today. Temperature records are being smashed all over the Continent.
Craig,
These media reports are of very dubious authenticity. Reports are often confused and selective combining all sorts of misinformation with some facts to create a sensationalist story.
The “records” being”smashed are often for one day, or week with information gathered from a very narrow group of measuring stations, sometimes just a single dubious report. Because of the media attention, all sorts of strange behavior is reported which is media driven.
In addition, many reports are which are simply expectations are not real but “estimations’ or “expectations” which are then recorded as real events.
How reliable or genuine are the sources ? In Germany a recording station that once recorded the temperature in 1947 reported a sensational “smashed” record of 38.6C ! The media reported this was consistent with Climate Change records showing dramatic increases over the last 20 years.
Perhaps so, but could there be another explanation ? In 1947 the same reporting station recorded a temperature of 38.4C degrees. At that time the station was located on a three story public building in a quiet suburb with lots of trees lined streets and low rise buildings. Since unification, not only has the technology become more sophisticated, but the stations is now surrounded by Hi Rise glass building, a very traffic intensive thoroughfare and a heat trap caused by heavy air-conditioning discharge !
O.2C difference doesn’t seem much of a record, unless you are desperate to prove the sensationalist media report as being correct.
The methodology just doesn’t match the wave of media stories, which thanks to the internet are basically the same story rehashed over and over.
Being repeated doesn’t make the stories anymore accurate, just repeated until myth becomes accepted fact.
The German Government and two Universities withdrew funding and facilities from a group of researchers into climate methodology after complaints from green activists against funding “climate deniers”. Fortunately, the Swiss offered facilities for the research to continue, although the EU issued a directive for no EU member to provide access to records or assist the researchers.
To deny human industry, population growth and land use must have some impact on the environment and climate is absurd. But it’s equally ridiculous to assume every change in the planet’s constantly changing climate is the result of human activity.
Creating an hysterical panic due to wild media speculation, may sell papers and busy social media, but it’s irresponsible to cruelly and cynically exploit public fear for political purpose.
Here’s an excellent example of dishonest and disingenuous reporting by CNN.
“Mounting heatwaves are exactly what climate scientists predicted because of rising global temperatures caused by increases in greenhouse gas emissions from burning coal, oil and gas, according to Stefan Rahmstorf, co-chairman of Earth system analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and professor at Potsdam University in Germany.
“Heat waves are on the rise,” Rahmstorf said in a statement earlier this week, comparing recent extreme heat with 500 years of records. “The hottest summers in Europe since the year 1500 AD all occurred since the last turn of the century: 2018, 2010, 2003, 2016, 2002.”
The “records’ Stefan Ramestorf refers to, don’t actually exist in any scientific form. Nor is his methodology anything more than a hodgepodge of assumptions, distortions, misquotes and conjecture passed off as “fact”.
To say his work contains highly selective, unverifiable material would be putting it very kindly. Sadly, any attempt to objectively analyze his work is met with a barrage of politically motivated fury by a devoted army of followers, encouraged by such media outlets as CNN.
What is true, is between about 1300 and 1870 Europe and North America were subjected to “The Little Ice Age”. A period of much colder winters and milder summers than during the 20th century.
The end of the “little ice age” coincided with the rise of industrialization, a fact Stefan Ramestorf claims is conclusive evidence of the effect of human industry on climate.
His arguments supporting this supposition have no scientific basis but have become entrenched in the public media as “established fact”. To their credit the University of Potsdam was skeptical of his claims, but seemed to change their mind of learning of the enormous funding and student popularity his lectures generated.
It’s time for a more “scientific” more objective, less political or ideological analysis to take place, free of extraneous influences. (But I don’t hold out much hope).