Projecting November’s U.S. Presidential Election Results

Yesterday, a conservative friend asked me what I thought was going to happen in November.

I responded that I don’t have any insight into this that isn’t available to the rest of the world, but, if we’re simply extrapolating the future from the present, i.e., barring anything unforeseeable, it looks like a Biden victory.

I base this on:

• A starting point: Biden’s 7 million vote win in 2020.

• The president’s accomplishments, albeit not well publicized.

• The 91 felony charges against Trump, and the likely path of progress in the criminal trials between now and November.

• The probable effect of public perception of Biden’s advancing age.

• The results of the GOP primaries, in which an average of about 40% of Republicans voted against Trump.

It seems that Trump has hit a hard limit in terms of his appeal to angry, easily persuaded, uneducated people.  There are tens of millions of them, but their numbers can’t grow much further.

Let me ask this about the meme above.  Yes, there are some voters who regard this garbage as a fair and meaningful representation of the issue at the southern border, but, if we were guessing at a percentage of their numbers, what would we estimate? It really couldn’t be more than about 25%.

Most people understand that illegal immigration is a serious, though complicated issue.  There are laws, both domestic and international, that must be complied with.  This is seen as the ultimate political football to some; as we all know, Republicans have no interest in resolving the issue prior to the November elections.  But there are people on both sides of the aisle who are working to resolve the situation with intelligence and compassion.