Progress in Renewable Energy

Someone asked me the other day what level of progress we’re making in phasing out fossil fuels in favor of renewable energy.  My response to this question hasn’t changed much in the 15 years I’ve been studying this subject: as shown in the graph here, we’re definitely making progress in terms of decarbonizing the grid and the light-duty transportation sector.

A more important question is this: If this trend is extrapolated, and eventually takes on the more difficult-to-address sectors, e.g.,  commercial aviation and ocean-going cargo freight, will this be sufficient to avert the worst consequences of climate change?

The answer is that no-one knows.  Personally, I doubt it, in the absence of some major technological breakthrough.

Our civilization consists of 200+ sovereign nation-states, that have shown essentially zero interest in coming together to address this existential threat.