Electric Vehicle Predictions for 2020, 2050
EV buff Dick Schoen argues: “EVs, the 110 models coming into the US from forty or so manufacturers worldwide, cannot successfully commercialize without free public solar charging.”
I reply:
Dick: Thanks for writing. I have a great deal of respect for you and your thinking, and I would love to live in a world in which EVs are commercialized with free public solar charging. But personally, I don’t see it. In fact, though I’m not happy about this, I see the grid-mix as being pretty much incidental to the success of EVs in the marketplace. I’m betting that we’ll see something like this:
2020: 10% penetration of EVs
Early adopters, corporate fleets
Charging mainly at private or semi-private locations: home, workplace, corporate facilities
A few “opportunity-charging” locations, mostly Level 2, and even fewer (far from ubiquitous) fast-charging (Level 3) locations
Slightly cleaner grid-mix brought about largely by state RPSs (renewable portfolio standards).
2050 – near 100% penetration of EVs in every class of land vehicle except the largest trucks
Battery packs completely affordable, as we experience scale and incremental improvement in performance over a 50-year period (currently 8% per year, compounded; this adds up mightily of 50 years)
Design standards for batteries that are optimized for fast (Level 3) charging
Thousands of such stations deployed in all “developed” countries
A much cleaner grid-mix, as old coal plants are decommissioned and the cost of renewable energy continues to fall
As I’m fond of saying, the issue isn’t “Will it happen?” It’s “Who’s going to make a buck in the process?” I aspire to be one of them, and I’m rooting for you too! Thanks for writing.
Craig, My comment was not meant to be “blue-sky”. A major utlity here in southern Callifornia heavily advertises, “let us plug you in.” However, by one estimate, fewer than 46% of current passenger car owners have private parking spaces / garages. Moreover, we need to “look out for what we wish for”. That is, the smart meters we want will allow time-of-day rates for EV charging as well.. later if not sooner… except if you are charging on the sun. During the time of CARB’s short-lived ZEV mandate that helped commercialize the EV-1 and RAV4 Electric, there were several hundred, grid-connected charging stations throughout southern California, in places like Old Pasadena.. and at several big box stores.. as well as not just a few gas stations! Yes, gas stations. ‘Seems that proprietors make a better profit margain in their convenience stores than on the gasoline they pump. Custmers waiting around for a 20 to 40 minute charge “in order to get home” spent more than the charge cost the propprietor! HIstory has begun to repeat itself, with several Wholefoods stores have already created preferred parking spots for EV’s with free charging. Incidentally,amongst those 110 models anticipated by forty manufacturers (not just a few not yet commercially in business) may be a model originally planned for import by Exxon Mobil! Will their larger stations become EV dealerships… creating an instant dealer network? (Without an established dealer network, the first very small Japanese-made cars brought into southern California after WWII were.. for a short time, sold in May Comapny department stores!)
Finally, there will be a series of socio-instituitonal as well as economic forcing functions encouraging unexpected rapid commercilaization, such as congestion pricing proposed for mdi-town Manhattan (defeated by the NY legisature) a few years ago and car-free days in the center of large metropolitain cites in Europe, Asia, and the US.. where – in both examples, ZEV vehicles may be excluded. Others include – here in California, a recent proposal to reinstate for EV’s, the HOV lane accesss by single occupants as was the case for the first 75,000 hybrids sold in the state, in ’04-’05. A salesperson at a local Toyota dealership once approached my wife while she waited for scheduled service on our ’04 Prius and told her he could get her $1500 to $2000 more for the car with those HOV stickers on the lower rear body panels! There are others.. the continually oscillating price of gasoline not being the least.
‘Just some thoughts.
Dick Schoen