Now, please provide a few sentences — or more if you wish — that express your overall reaction to the idea that population growth and energy resource depletion will have dire consequences over the coming years.
The fact that China has discovered the 21st century and is in the midst of an industrial doom with the largest population in the world,(ie) they plan to manufacture 1.7 million cars over the next 3 years should come as a warning to all of us, the sleeping dragon is awake and very hungry, be careful or you’ll be lunch.
The time for a real surge in green energy solutions is at hand, tnose of us who are trying to make a difference need all the help and support we can get, we can’t change the world over night but given a little more help maybe we could give it a chance at survival.
Thomas Friedman had done an excellent job of summarizing the interrelated needs, phenomena and possible solutions in “Hot, Flat and Crowded”, where he builds a case on the five big problems: energy and natural resource supply and demand, petro-dictatorships, climate change, energy poverty and biodiversity loss.
If the type of multi-tiered approach he proposes can be deployed it time, the planet at worst should be able to sustain status quo with the predicted population growth and energy /food per capita consumption. The energy is available but we need a new business model and policies to manage it.
The time must be now to deploy change through stronger, more comprehensive and sustained policies to spread use of available technologies and advance new solutions allowing the world to manage the energy within a sustainable climate, and extricate ourselves from off-shore fossil fuel dependencies. We need to honestly cost the externalities in the price of fossil fuels when comparing, including climate change, impact on biodiversity, air quality and the full cost of getting our fuel from the Middle East (we are over $1.2 trillion and counting for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars).
This needs to encompass not one solution, but the entire spectrum (solar, wind, biofuel, geothermal…) – plus fossil fuels Technology is perhaps the easiest part- the current failings are in policy and leadership and the ease with which votes and policy are purchased – not for any altruistic goals, but rather for greed and profit. We need domestic and global policies that focus on energy conservation and aggressive improvements in CAFE standards, long-term- reliable incentives for renewable technologies, and especially promoting alternatives to fossil fuels that provide energy into renewable solutions (e.g. renewable power generation to manufacture solar panels).
Although the numbers are against us in global population growth, I do believe we can still make a difference. If we can instill in each and every generation to be better stewards of the earth than the generation before, then we have a great shot at turning things around, albeit slowly. Having a child has helped instill the philosophy in me that we must act now and make this world better for future generations. In the near future, I see dwindling water resources being the biggest concern.
We need a huge push for alternative energy now! Wind & solar and more progress on hydrogen. The government should lead the way w/solar panels on all government buildings and hybrid/electric fleets. That would create many thousands of jobs and dramatically lessen our dependence on foreign oil. Educate people on the environmental and health benefits of vegetarian diets.
The economic principles that built the US economy in the 20th century are detrimental to both the economy and the environment in the 21st. China will eat our lunch for some years, but their centralized control will eventually fail them as well. My question is whether people will ultimately decide to act in the interest of the planet and future generations without having to be coerced. My feeling is that the answer is no, and for that reason, I am not optimistic about the long-term future of humanity. Big brains may turn out to be an evolutionary failure.
Unfortunately all the rhetoric we hear, see, listen to is “good” but seems that we are pursuing too many avenues at the same time which retards progress in any one technology. The resources would be better taken advantage of if we “focused” our energy on fewer technologies, develop them to their “MAX” and once achieved, go to another promising technology.
Another area where we are being compromised, as if we didn´t know already, “Big Money” as usual still has too big a hand in the mix of things which may compromise everybody in the long run foe the economic benefit of just a few. When will the public in general, wake-up and demeand that either governments intervene, or the genarl public take the rigns away from this concentrated few and go forward to benefit the whole of mankind?
When will we wake up and make the demands on governments and science to do the “right-thing”?
To Jonathan Friedman; As Geo Carlin said, “The planet will be fine, you moron! It’s us that’ll be dead.”
Otherwise, I agree with you. Our learning curve, as well as ability to “deny” reality, is a prevailing mind orienting factor in the U.S. The politicians, as well as comerce in general, have learned to pander to this and expand it. But,”The ego’s tolerance for pain is high, but not without limit.”, and we will all reach the point of awakening. The only real choice is “when”.
The world is but a reflection of our own separate mind. What we see in “it” is what we believe is really there.
The global situation has been compared to WW II as far as threatening humanity as we know it. A solution has been suggested using WWII tactics to ramp up industry with the several sustainable options: solar, wind and geothermal. This is in my opinion at this time a very possible path to minimize what most scientists believe is a dire future for most of life on earth if we do not pursue them. I have, however serious doubts given the political atmosphere driven by our oligarch cal special interest groups that has persuaded the masses to succumb to the political strategies of the rulers which favor business as usual. So I think that the necessary changes will be delayed to the point that much of humanity will be forced to endure catastrophic consequences.
Consumption is still very much king, it slowed down but only because of the economic downturn. Here is Britain we saw the ‘ buy one get one free’ change into a buy 2 get one free’ with the same disastrous effect, ie over consumption. New electronic gadgets have an enormous embedded energy, and in their life time are particularly energy hungry. Where does it leave us: disoriented with conflicting messages flying around. How can we prepare ourselves for radical behaviour change if what we hear and see is cornucopia.
World energy demand will grow by 50% by 2025, along with a growth in population that will increase pressure on farmers to increse crop yields.However,wheat is already under attack by UG99, stem rust, diminishing food supplies globally. Climate change is altering insect and disease patterns, weather patterns,and many people across the Planet are simply in a state of denial, much akin to the Titanic debacle.The crisis is here, and now,and crop yields will not be enough to feen an ever growing population.
We will need a Food Ark to save seeds and breeds to ensure our future survival.
Politics seems to trump Science, thus I see no real solutions in the near future, as we close to the tipping point of human extinction; afterall, Nature does not need us !
The Key is always Energy. When renewables make renewables, long-term costs will drop and keep dropping. That’s good for the economy, that’s good for the habitable biosphere, so that’s got to be good for people. Eradication of poverty and resource depletion will occur as a result of near to zero running costs. Meantime we have to collectively pay for the investment into this positive future, that is individuals, business and government alike, which will be expensive upfront, but less expensive than continuing not to use clean energy. At the same time, as we tend towards a low energy future, we have to look at local sustainable community growth which is necessarily part of that future: localised food and water schemes, leading to healthier people and healthier thinking. It’s a big challenge, but one we all have to engage in. The Key is Energy!
cheap solar- paintable wide spectrum is the horse we should be feeding. We have more than enough solar energy for our needs but must not use fossil fuels for that purpose.
I believe mankind has the ability to adjust to the situation. There are still untapped source of energy that can be utilized for future generation. Man will find ways to remedy the problem on hand and find solution if needed.
“population growth and energy resource depletion will have dire consequences over the coming years”. It’s a good question, however common sense. As a nation we will do nothing until it reaches catastrophic proportion.
Solar & Wind power systems at the individual level are what is needed, large systems are nice but how can people get excited about sending the same check to a different address.
Holding America back to let poluting 3rd world countries make things, & sending them money as in cap & trade will only make things worse.
We have so many regulations & costs here in the US that it is far cheaper to send businesses over seas, generating many times the polution & under paying labor.
America needs to set the example, we can make things, own things, recycle & reuse things better than anyplace else, if we unhinder business & investors with “regulations” & reward them with praise & profit.
Green has become a marketing tool, & with more praise & less put downs we can do more. Environmentalist are putting down improvements by saying its not enough. It is not yet, but let em know they are on the right track.
Renewables are very important but certainly in the UK they can not be the whole answer, we dont have enough land so we will have to use Nukes – Lets make it Thorium not Uranium though – you can’t make bombs out of Thorium and if the cooling system fails it fails safe and just sits there without the risk of going critical & killing people.
Saying we will have to use “nukes” is just a belief, and is only one way to see things. I do not favor ‘”centralized energy” as the only provision, but only “one way to see it”. “Distributed energy” is the bane of banks and wall street because it will disrupt their margin capture immensly. It may also be an insult to the “military-industrial-congressional” comples that has a choke hold on the US and the world. Just imagine for one moment a world that has no experience of lack or security and you may have an idea of what the world could be in the future with abundant distributed solar energy. Even now, most large corporations have abundant capital because is is believed by them that “taking” instead of “sharing” is the way to happiness. All of us will learn that this cannot possibly be the way and the purpose of the world will change in a seeming instant. The world will be let go of in an instant of forgiveness, and the fear of “not having enough” will be seen as the distant illusion that it is.
I completely agree that ever growing polulation and insatiable desire to extract current enery sources will have dire consequences on day to day life of every human being. The growing population will demand the higher yield from the limited rather reducing farm land and force us to use more chemicals to get higher yeild. The gowing population will cause the more consumption of energy sources and further depleting at the faster rate.
Going gree, natural and organic, using clean renewal enery is the way to go forward.
The solutions are available if we, as a nation (and world), are honest with ourselves. The problems of greed and short term thinking must be overcome. Our planet cannot survive if we do not switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy. We need to put our resources into reducing carbon dioxide now or the very nature of our lives on this planet will change dramatically. This isn’t something that may happen in the future. Climate change is happening now. We must support those who believe in science, not superstition. We must take our planet back from those who divide our world with self serving mythology. We must have the strength to face reality and the courage to do the right thing.
I do not invest in stocks directly – my IRA is in mutual funds. The point is there is no one single solution that we should be concentrating on with the exception of smart energy grids. Let oil, coal, and gas contribute as much as possible, because as solar, wind, wave, etc reaches and then passes price parity with fossil fuels the market will close them down. In the USA alone I predict a few million consumers will switch to electric cars in the next few years, and a high percentage of those will opt for some kind of auxilliary power (solar, etc). The ability of countries like Iran and Venezuela to depend on oil exports while thumbing their nose internationally will end quickly.Once the era of plentiful, cheap energy takes hold then many other problems can be dealt with easier, desalination or purification of water is very energy intensive. If we could do it cheaper then suddenly millions of acres of farmland are now usable whereas before it was desert or waste land.
The problem is not lack of new technical solutions.
The problem is the powerful forces that do not want new cheap energy and environmental solutions.
Incompetent politicians let themselves be ruled by the lobbies, which are well paid in order to maintain control over future development.
What should this group use their capital to, when our common planet can no longer provide its population clean water, air and food.
Where has this team going to live?
Most trades people see infinity machines, in any technique that they believe does not match their indoctrinated theories. How can a human construct and build an infinity machine?
If we use techniques that already exist today, but not publicly accepted, we will be able to stop population growth in fatige land and produce food and clean water to the world’s population.
Every generation has been concerned with using up all the resources of this world before their grandchildren live a full life. But so far we still populate the only habitable planet in our knowledge. About 50 years ago I first heard the problm stated that the intellegent couples usually had only one child but the lowest intelegence and lowest financially capable had the largest number of children. Before 1940 farmers needed children to work the farm then in the 50’s and up to today, we reward unwed mothers and multiple bastard children with public assistance. We reward them for “Screwing Around” Orphanage-sweatshops were successful prior to 1925, Both the cities and the churches sponsored them for a profit. Why do we neuter our pets but not our daughters and sons?
THIS IS NOT THE REPLY YOU WERE EXPECTING…
Although I’m hesitant to jump on the neuter bandwagon…. Dennis’s point is well taken. Why do we continue to give assistance to large families when doing so helps to subsidize population growth? It’s not one problem here folks: It’s all of them and it’s going to take every solution we’ve got to even have a hope of a successful future.
James Kunstler’s ‘The Long Emergency’ comes to mind, as well as Jared Dimond’s ‘Collapse’. The writing is on the wall, and we have to find a way to avert the ‘tragedy of the commons’. I agree with the overall proposition that without significant change the combination of population (growth is a problem, but the existing number is possibly already higher than we can carry without cheap oil) and depleting energy resources there will be dire consequences. I think the planet itself has a bright future, it will spin around the sun for millions if not billions more years. But survival of humans in the sort of numbers we now have in the world? I doubt it.
I see the price of energy rising, resulting in rising food costs and probably declining food production. The result of this will be terrible levels of human misery and possibly mass starvation, resulting in population reduction.
It looks as if this will happen even as we transition to a greater proportion of renewables, because prices will be so much higher, and by nature the alternatives are never going to have the compact efficiency of gasoline.
The wild-card for me is climate change, and whether the concentration of CO2 in the air will bring physical disasters before the dwindling supplies bring further economic disaster.
Even China will not progress if the economies that buy its output are crippled.
There may be many symptoms of energy and oxygen starvation and toxicity from the many and varried toxins invented and ex-vented my man. The first may well be the in-ability to think deeply and peacefully about the future and ones needs in general. Observing the paranoia of any strongly hooked “junky” makes this obvious. Even the junkies we see outside ourselves are healed by understanding that the essence of their existence is not brought about by their bodies, but by the mind, and they may choose again to live as their True Minds’ Creator has provided.
Unfortunitely as long as Goverment & big business march to there separate drumers the progress will be slow. Big business purchases research to protect there investment . Not to advance the research. Goverment controlls the dollar to suit reelection thus protecting there continued survival not the publics survival.
It really is not about population growth. We are so deeply entrenched in a consumerist society, we often are not aware of the consequences – we need society & lifestyle changes to carry us into the future or we are truly doomed. We will destroy this planet if we do not become aware of what we are doing, the way we are depleting it’s natural resources. Alternative, renewable energies is part of the answer and this is something that everybody can become involved in. The lifestyle changes can begin right now – how we use our electricity at home and work, how we drive our cars (if we still do that), what and how we eat, can we grow some of our own food – it’s all about commitment and leaving a legacy future generations can be proud of – not having to clean up afterwards.
Turn that light off if you don’t need it!
Can’t add too much to what has been said so far. But what scares me almost more than climate change, Peak Oil, collapsing eco-systems, poverty, exploitation and wars in the world is that by and large people do a lot less than they could actually do to make a difference, kind of like “As long as I’m/my family is OK and after me/us the deluge”. We need a lot more folks that walk the walk and not just talk the talk!
I believe that we will overcome our oil dependency and move towards a future with less pollution, more recycling and way more renewable energy. It won’t be easy and much R&D is still needed. What we can do is to allocate more money into R&D, as well as to roll out existing technologies at an even greater pace. We also need to continue to spread awareness to the general public about what they can do to help(recycling wasted food to produce biogas/fuel, leave the car behind, invest in solar panels, buy an electric car and for God’s sake! Turn that light/TV off when you leave the room!).
As for population growth, I am worried. In an ideal world, everyone would be able to enjoy the western standard of life but I do sadly think that it won’t happen, at least least not in it’s current form.
As demand for oil outstrips supply by even greater numbers the oil prices will climb. Food prices will climb even more and might cause riots in poor countries.
The best thing to do is to continue to help women take control of of their own lives and combine that with promoting education and birth control. After all, if we look at current birth rates in the western world it seems to work quite well. Obvious back draw is of course all the material wealth that’s required.
What really worries me is that the renewable energy- and green transportation sector probably took off too late. I have the impression(backed up by data I’ve seen on the subject) that there’s a gap too big to fill between current renewable output(electricity and fuel) and what we need to sustain our level of comfort… and that almost no matter what we do, there will be a turbulent period of adapting to the reality in the next 20-30 years. I suspect that this initial period of the “post-oil era” will be quite nasty but that we will eventually come out on top 🙂
For better or worse, we live in interesting times.
Humans will experience population crash due to our shortsightedness. If we are careful, it need not lead to demise of humans as a species but rather a “wake up call” to reform our economies and technologies to be more respectful of reality. We’ve been living a fantasy that we control everything and nothing can get in our way. That has to stop.
No doubt that reality of present day population growth versus use and abuse of resources will continue and get worse in years to come. On the other hand we as a race are on the edge of accepting that things must change in order to survive. If education, research, development, along with the proper allocation of funding does not go in the right direction, nature itself will (as it appears to be starting) rectify all aspects of our existence from overpopulation to pollution and resource extraction. My belief is that we must decentralize power production and diversify to the many different technologies available and constricted only by geography and climate. Just as we must all contribute to the food we eat either on an individual basis or with community based gardens, etc. Low cost loans and/or grants should be available not to corporations but to individuals in order that locally produced power is a reality on every building and every home. Roof top small windmills, solar, energy recovery from discarded grey water, rain water usage, community sewer heat recovery through geothermal systems, small hydro shoreline production from rivers and larger tide and wave generators are all within our grasp. With less centralized power production as long as distribution is maintained or rebuilt, no catastrophy will affect as many people as we have seen in the past. We can all feed off each other in terms of power, food, jobs, education, and so on. Maybe it is only a dream I am writing about, is it?
There’s much to be done in conservation, renewable energy, safe 4th generation nuclear, but the key to all of these is government action which we simply cannot get as the system is presently configured. The answer is federally financed elections. The cost of hundreds of millions to do this can save scores of billions in special interest giveaways and influence. Take away the pull of monied interests (read oil companies, for example) and we can get common sense rules and research.
I feel that with the world’s exploding population and diminishing arable farmland we, as a population, are soon to find ourselves in a situation where the majority of the people on this planet will be without an adequate food supply. We need to stop urban areas from paving over prime farm lands and shift our reliance on other countries to provide our food when they could have been grown locally.
I think that we need to further tap into renewable resources, like solar and wind, which leave a smaller carbon footprint to help reduce the damage that fossil fuels have done to our planet. We need to further develop small wind and solar panels to reduce the cost of manufacturing and supplying these products so that every household will be generating their own power for consumption. We need to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and lessen the impact that the lobbyists have on our governments and inform our people of the benefits of clean power.
Maybe once we have pulled our heads out of the sand and see what is going on all around us we will stop believing what the big oil corporations are telling (selling) us. We need to shift our focus from what is in the ground to what is happening above the ground. Every one of us has the ability to produce our own power we just need the tools and incentive to do so.
Good Morning All,
The population growth is mainly in CHINA and INDIA
Malthusian theory in Economics has proved right in my lifetime that food supply shall be taken care of by the demands. Returning to India,my home country after over 25 years of service abroad I see food supply in abundance.The public distribution system is in shambles . Iam struck with awe for we were 300 M+ WHEN WE GOT INDEPENDENCE 60 years back and today our population is 1200 M
Nature along with human toil has produced plenty for all!!!Thanks to Dr. Barlough for his hybrid wheat strian which he came personaly to India 5 decades back to teach us its advantages
Regarding the renewable Energy issue Iam of the opinion that Fossil Fuel days are at its fag end.Science is on the job and Iam confident we shall solve the problem in due course if we can correctly define the problem Many even in the scientific world are not aware of the implications to Climate change that Fossil Fuel has. Thanks to web sites like yours who are doing a pioneering work in improving this awareness shall slowly and steadily give sufficient impetus for a Sustainable Energy Technology,I am directly involved in Mini Hydel, Solar Photovoltaic, Solar Thermal . Which of of this technology shall solve our problems remains to be seen.
Thanks and Regards
shrinivas
Population growth is a part of the problem with health, but in the USA the pollution per capita is still higher than in poorer countries, and the, well, really ignorant thing, is we have the resources to change our energy production to distributed energy here, right now, but we arrogantly refuse. We, as self appointed leaders of world economies, have lost the ability to teach truth, and it will be assumed by others. The US would rather discover “things” that we can sell to further leverage other countries to our profit because of this insane belief that capitalism is god.
Craig, you had indicated there would be a place for suggesting where we should look for prospective solutions. This is the only place available. First, we should look for systems-based solutions, not just isolated technologies, though some of these may well be crafted into a systems solution. Second, we should develop exclusionary principles and web-documented, peer-reviewed argument that can steer us away from wasting investment funds on non-economically-viable technologies such as CO2 (as opposed to biochar) storage underground and energy crops using artificial light. Third, we should web-document each of the prospective renewable energy systems solutions, linking the perceived problems at each process step with prospective solutions, their recent and expected future quantification (costs, inputs and outputs), until the best systems to pursue become obvious.
Is this something that 2greenenergy might promote to those in a position to fund or manage it as both an investor and a public service?
There are many intellegent solutions. There are many profiteering companies and industries who are making obscene profits but not with a good solutions for our world, only for their bottom line, We need to stop them. both food marketing and energy marketing include many of these profiteers. as do other industries. Like the Pirates of 200 years ago they need to be put out of business.. Perhaps you have forgotten, Communism didn’t work. we need to vote with our purchasses, buy clean and green technology and that segment of thr economy will grow. avoid purchasing from the Pirates only make purchasses from merchants who are sensitive to out world and sell products which are not going to harm our future.
People don’t realize that the size of our renewable resources are truly enormous. Population growth will mainly affect our natural resources as humans occupy greater and greater parts of the land to feed, house, work, school etc. However, if we industrialize using renewable, sustainable and green ways, we can make our existence on the planet a pleasurable one. Industrialized nations typically have sharply falling populations as opposed to 3rd world nations that typically have exploding populations. Emerging growth economies take a few generations to reach slow growth populations numbers such as found in fully industrialized nations. Green, sustainable and renewable industrialized economies will have that and a greater quality of life as well.
Just look at WWII. In the history of mankind, when the pressure for a solution gets dire enough, innovation and public drive come to mankind’s salvation. In the garages and dorm rooms of America, (including mine) those solutions to energy and food are being developed. We were first under pressure from clients, HUD and DOE to develop solutions. Because we now have some of the answers you and they are seeking, we are now under pressure from HUD, ARPA-E, DOE and FEMA to submit for funding. This past week, we were honored to be selected as semifinalists in the Clean Tech Open where professionals will help us bring them to fruition.
For example, in our ‘garage’ are solar roofs with the option of all 6 forms of solar which will cost less than new non-solar roofs and retrofit solar at less than 40% per watt of current products. We have leading-edge, green, sustainable construction systems that can withstand the worst that Mother Nature can throw at it. They will be composed of over 60% waste materials yet be more attractive than what we have today. Your dream home is projected to cost less than 1/3rd that of a current equivalent non-solar home. O-DOE studies show it will consume 24% of the energy of an equivalent Model Energy Code home BEFORE the addition of our solar roof and inexpensive electricity storage system. And the utility company will send you a nice check every month instead of the other way around. Clean Fuel will be close to $1 per gallon. For those of you worried about food for the masses, we have designs and worldwide experience for commercial greenhouses to be placed on currently non-productive land and pay for themselves in less than 5 years just from the excess electricity they will generate.
So, keep your chin up ~ there is hope for our future.
technotard
P.S. As for China, I was honored to be one of America’s delegates to the World Focus on Housing Conference held in China and have visited there as a tourist many times. What we saw was 180 degrees from what you read in the American press. Beijing does not control China, warlords do. Counter to Beijing and 11 other entities, a warlord 872 miles up river determined the height of the largest dam in the world. They are the most entrepreneurial people I have met in the world and each district goes their own way.
As the saying goes; “The stone age did not end because we ran out of stones!” the same applies to hydrocarbons. I am confident we will replace it with a bunch of alternative sources – but it’s clear the US will not be at the forefront of many of these as we allow the hydrocarbon special interest to control policy – but then again, it will be at their own demise – just look at the railroads and their navel gazing!
The 9th question: “All this is malarkey perpetuated by alarmists and political radicals. At most, the concerns are over-hyped.” Is too vague and I couldn’t figure any to correctly interpret it. Is the malarkey the climate change deniers’ nonsense? The national debt alarmists? The population alarmists? The food alarmists? The climate change alarmists? I’m afraid my malarkey may not be your malarkey.
It seems that the more we exploit the environment the closer we come toward some sort of pandemic; if we are unsuccessful in attaining some form of renewable energy program as a nation and development is slowed by indecision on the governments level we may see the population reduced anyway. I think there is a limit as to how far we can progress toward some form of sustainable renewable energy system if action isn’t taken by those within the energy industry – in spite of the government. I also don’t think we can depend on incentives to drive progress; again if we wait on government we’ll lose what ever advantage we have now and progress will slow to a standstill.
About 20 years ago the Rocky Mountain Institute established that the then current efficiency technology would allow to reduce energy consumption by 75 percent through efficiency measures. Efficiency technology has improved in the meantime. The passivehaus technology requires 90% less heating than conventional buildings, LED emergency exit lights of 1 Watt compared to the original 30 W incandescent ones are available in Germany to give just 2 examples. Exit lights previously required to provide about 10 lx at the floor level for exit lights. By waving this requirement the low wattage became legally possible.
Lighting levels claimed to be necessary have been pushed upwards since the invention of fluorescent lighting and are now 4 to 15 times higher than during the incandescent era and have led to an increase in the use of spectacles because of the generally lower quality of the more intense lighting sources. With full spectrum lighting the lighting level could be reduced by 1/3rd for the same reading acuity as proven by the Berkely National Laboratory. A review of lighting intensities by excluding the lighting industry would achieve miracles.
I agree that the problem of energy availability is getting worse by the minute, the polititians compound the problem with their selfish view. The green technologies being developed now are a good start and should be phased in until all the energy produced is renewable energy.
The cost of the transition will have to be taken into account but it is unavoidable. No one mentions the cost of importing all that oil and the cost to every customer in the world as all that wealth is tansfered to other countries while renewable energy is mostly a job creator in every country, a clean source of energy, and most importantly: the wealth stays home, contributing taxes, jobs, wealth, development, pride.
Non-polluting devices hidden by all governments to protect their billionnaire friends
On French TV they talk about electric cars but never do I hear about Tesla and his electric car, built about 100 years ago ! Nor about these many inventions we can see on internet: electric motors, cold fusion (fantastic when it will be refined). I gathered a lot of informations which I compiled in Word files, available for those who want them. It means that all western governments who know about these – and they all know – are a real worldwide maffia acting against all humanity for their own profit. I wish I would have a few million dollars – or Euros – to finance those people who published their inventon on internet, as the governments – mainly in USA – do all they can to stop them, with the complicity of CIA and other secret services (how many Americans have been killed to prevent them to reveal their invention?).
I hope the people will revolt against those criminals.
It is the unpredictability of the future that is most difficult for humans to accept. Science is a rational response to what may be fundamental uncertainties. Most people do not want to see huge and rapid changes to their lifestles when the need for them is justified by cautious but incomplete analyses. It may be that as a species we have evolved to react brilliantly to near and present danger of whatever kind and yet we lack a hard wiring to repsond to possible dangers beyond the immediate horizon. In the end I fear that human life is fragile and so some future scenarios could result in massive, uncontrolled and catastrophic population decline. Yet this outcome could still be more acceptable than any attempt to moderate overall population in a controlled and preemptive way.
Market forces are already at work, and transforming quickly our world. Most of our predictions tend to be based in linear estimations. But actually, oil price is already exerting a lot of pressure on development of alternatives to current ICEs vehicles. So, peak oil may result in ours burning out a lot of coal, therefore increasing a lot our global warming problem; or it may result in quicker and broader adoption of other energies/technologies developed for transportation, but more effective (and clean -probably as a by product). Whether future will be one way or another surely is impossible to predict. I hope we put our weight, and it is enough, to tilt it on the more convenient side … for us!
Innovation – the creation of more from less – is, and always has been, the key to growth. (Schumpeter was right!) As we exit the cheap energy era, we operate hugely wasteful systems. The potential for efficiency gains – particularly in the United States – is huge. Changing a landscape designed for fossil fuels will be difficult and painful for many. It will reduce the resource needs – and therefore increase the wealth – of more. The difficult bit will be spotting the innovations that will deliver the change.
The world population is growing mostly in the ‘third world’ countries. Most of these people are living at a low income level. They all aspire to live a western type of lifestyle. This means that as their economies grow and their incomes grow to match, more and more people will be adopting an energy hungry western living standard. Even if the population remains stable and the living standard increases this will still result in an incredible increase in the world’s energy consumption. I see the solution as being twofold. On the one hand we need to become as energy efficient as possible (develop new processes, change to cfl lighting etc) and on the other hand we need to find and develop beter ways of generating energy.
The human mind has succeeded in providing all the required technology to utilise the current resource opportunities to allow a sustainable strategy to be successfully followed for the foreseeable future (7 generations).
However, we have been unable to decouple our nature from our intellect and so are doomed to fail. Our nature requires an immediate threat for significant “step change” strategies and unfortunately the “bottlenecks” our species face only manifest themselves as a threat when a response (at BEST) can do little to mitigate the problems and so the changes we face will require us to adapt to the new (changing?) environment.
This is a common problem in natural systems, which far from the naive traditional view of ecosystems they are at best in some kind of dynamic equilibrium or regularly result in huge “blooms” in population followed by catastrophic crashes (admittedly at very small scales – not globally). This population/food availability dynamic often results in localised extinctions, when the remaining populations after a dieback event drop below viable replacement levels.
The good news is that our ingenuity, current technology and adaptability make our ability to adapt to a changing world almost a certainty. I just feel a little sorry for the majority of our species over the next 100 years as we have already almost certainly overshot our sustainable population levels at current quality of life/lifestyle choice.
Population growth will be lower the next century, but food will be the biggest problem as large areas are (and will be) exploited for bio-fuel.
Until it is internationally forbidden (the market can’t regulate this, i’m afraid) to grow any bio-fuel whatsoever, hunger will influence the stability of a large part of our world.
We have to spent our money the best way possible: Renewable energy, as it is named, won’t be gone after 100 years, it’s only a matter of sense, and even right at this moment of economics, to use it. The problem is the mind-set which is all about oil. There’s money enough!
If the United States spent there money on renewable energy in stead of the Iraqi war, the whole problem would now have been history! But that’s an if-story …
The Lawyer’s ruined this country. Until your address the take over of lawyer’s by tort reform. I don’t have much hope for this country. As a people of this great country. Why don’t we start voting for politician who have the people best interest. Don’t forget, politician are the lawyer’s most anyway. They created the pollinization of this country to benifit only themselves. I heard a rumor by a farmer who land was drilled on that 9% of his royality’s of gas will be going to the politician who was the last speaker of the house. And last night on a TV program. Nancy Puloski had a 62% increase in her wealth. Why don’t we all wake up and vote only for the politician’s who are honest wether they are from the Democratic or Republican or Independant party. This is the only way this country going to get back on tract for our children future. It’s our generation duty to vote the politcian out and vote for the one’s who truly care. I would like to go solar and wind and Geo- Thermal. Price tag for all three $ 100,000 which sadly I don’t have. We need to protect our water in this country. This should be our first priorty now.
The issues of population growth and resource depletion are related, but cannot be resolved through direct interaction. Population growth remains mainly an educational and poverty relief problem mainly in developing countries, whereas resources depletion is predominently a developed country phenonemon. Changes to resource use need to occur in developed countries so that as the transition takes place from under-developed to developing to developed, they are able to adopt best practice rather than rely on the wasteful society we currently have.
We don’t have a population problem or a fossil fuels shortage. We simply need to drill for oil, use natural gas, use nuclear. If “alternative” energy technologies are ever economical then let them win in the free market place. Government should never pick winners and losers. Also Global Warming is a hoax and all about power and control to destroy capitalism and support radical environmentalists…the same ones that warning of global cooling in the 70’s and said we would run out fossil fuels by the year 2000. Focus on TRUTH and not opinion and on free markets and then energy issues will solve themselves. The use of FORCE through government is morally corrupt and wrong. Thos environmental radicals who have a good idea should start and company and innovate and compete.
Considering that within my father’s lifetime cars went from essentially nonexistent to ubiquitous and airplanes from completely nonexistent to ubiquitous, and in my lifetime semiconductors were born, as were computers and televisions, it would be hubristic to think we WON’T have a major advance like cold fusion or something else totally unimaginable to us now.
But even the most optimistic scientists offer forecasts for commercial viability on the order of one generation or more for many developments. Yes, the rate of technology improvement and invention is faster, but some of the more revolutionary developments take time. The rate of incremental change in existing technology has accelerated constantly in the past 40 years, or so. Add to that the natural impediment of regulation and risk reduction, and significant change in a generation, or less, is a huge challenge. (By the way, I’m not suggesting regulation and risk reduction is bad on its face.)
You might want to check the timeline on the ubiquity of the automobile, for example, also. The data suggests it was a little more gradual and required a number of “generations” to arrive at ubiquity from initial introduction.
The missing piece in most analyses is that how bad things get will vary enormously by region. Most of Africa is a basket case (most countries are already net calorie importers) and the world will not be rich enough or motivated enough to save them. The western US and Canada in combination are relatively rich in renewable energy resources; as a region they could be reasonably well off, but not if they have to export heavily to the more populous parts of those countries.
Solar-wind-geothermal-all are heading down to $i.00 per watt. This must be matched by fuel cells and electrolyzers. Then the solar hydrogen economy can take off and provide jobs for the next fifty years. Concurrently fossil fuel depletion primarily oil-Rating 800 world wide sources of oil – is 7% per year. After 2012 the only limitation to the price of oil will be the rate of collapse of the weaker parts of the world economy. Higher oil prices and lower alternative prices will finally start to change things in a big way.
Yes, waiting for tomorrow is always seeming better……… We have distributed solar thermal now, for aproximately 60 cents a watt. AND, there is more heat energy available from the sun, than electrical, by a factor of four or five……… But let’s wait for tomorrow to produce cheap electricity for us, because that is what we prefer..
I believe that dire consequences “could result” from our current patterns of energy use, particularly our use of fossil fuels in our homes and cars. Individuals can shift to more sustainable technologies but it’s not technology or even economics that is in the the way of that shift. The “perception” of loss of luxury, status and or freedom of movement seem to be what prevents the transition to home solar, energy efficient appliances, electric vehicles, wind power….. among those with whom I’ve discussed these issues, people who I know could afford such lifestyle enhancing changes.
Only those who wish to believe or are foolish enough to believe see China as a leader in non-fossil energy growth. From a country famous for “look at my other hand” kind of distractions, one need only look at the real numbers to see it is and will be deeply dependent on fossil-fueled energy for generations to come.
Every time I read or hear unrealistic expectations for renewable energy, I am saddened at how the natural progress will likely be interrupted. Add to that political force via regulations and huge subsidy, and the cocktail for resistance gets stronger.
We cannot continue to beat the climate change drum exclusively just as we cannot continue to ignore the economic aspects of “the dream.” When only trillions of dollars will push us towards whatever goal some imagine, skepticism and scrutiny are natural responses. There is a plentiful supply of sun-driven energy, for sure. The challenge is to find a way to economically harness it and convert it without breaking the bank and alienating all but the most ardent climate catastrophe believers. We are not succeeding by a long shot.
Growth, even a modest 7%, will soon deplete our oil and gas reserves and make the argument of whether alternatives are practicle or affordable moot. See http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=6A1FD147A45EF50D for more info.
There is no doubt that strong population growth accompanied with a lack of accountability relative to responsibly managing the environment will ultimatley create an irreversable course in the decay in the quality of human life. However, it is equally irresponsible of those who wish to prevent such an inevitability to look to the government to shoulder the cost of this. Policies need to be put into place that provide incentives to develop as opposed to add to an already excessively burdened taxpayer.
It seems with the advent of collaboration via the internet/smartphones …… problems, both the acknowledgment and potential solutions, are being seen and interacted upon by a vast number of people. It appears that we are in the midst of dramatic changes in how we manufacture, educate, generate electricity, transport goods/people, share information, etc. Before a system/organism can evolve to its next level of complexity it goes through a period of chaos. Two things that I have read about lately are: physicists have made an object large enough to see with the naked eye that exhibits properties of quantum physics …. being in two places simultaneously …. and observation of an object changes its temperature and moves the object. What are the ramifications of that for the future? Keith Schwab ….. changing temp & moving object, Andrew Cleland & John Martinis ….. macro object two places simultaneously.
There can be dire consquencies to population growth and energy resources depletion if there is not a conscious effort by human inhabitants to live in harmony with planet earth. We are depleting earth’s natural resources at an excelerated rate. “global warming” -destroying our wetlands, rainforest, forestry, rivers and streams, rurual and urban communities-our eco-system using existing ernergy sources, i.e. oil, nuclear, coal, etc.). These energy sources that have been and continue to be catastrophical and unpredictable to human existance whether man-made disasters/errors or mother nature will have a major impact on population growth. We continue to development land mass in large quantities that’s deteriorating and depleting earth’s greenspaces and wildlife sanctuaries. If we are conscious of our environment, our lifestyles, reduction in human consumption and waste, use eco-freindly products, organic foods, and the conservation of earth’s natural resources, population growth, which is inefidable, will have the greatest impact and ability to influence a positive attitude towards transitioning to sustainable communities, renewable energy resources and reverse energy resource depletion.
Its a “perfect storm” of economic, environmental and sociological influences: (1) Just after oil production peaked, the demand for oil is set to skyrocket. (2) Just when our ecosystem (that we rely on for survival) has been pushed beyond the breaking point, energy demand is ramping up sharply in developing societies. (3) Just after Americans begin to realize they are living a ‘seven planet lifestyle’, the burgeoning populations in developing nations decide they want what we have, in terms of “lifestyle”. (4) Just as 1 through 3 are happening, our gamble-on-greed bubble bursts, and we suddenly believe we can’t afford to invest in anything. You couldn’t make this stuff up. We have a transformation at our doorstep. Will we finally develop the will to think strategically? Or, do we go over the cliff?
Yes the world is facing big problems, but hundreds of people and organizations have issued reports which provide a blueprint to a better future. The main thing is for people to unite and remain optimistic that a major initiative targeting energy efficiency will get us by until renewable energy sources can be ramped up. We need to start at the community level — making each town and city as energy self-sufficient and efficient as possible. We need to learn to rely on centralized systems as little as possible. All this will shift our economy away from consumption to a more service oriented one where we look after one another and the planet. It is time for humanity to evolve to the next step!
I am quite optimistic of a sustainable future base on the amounts being invest on R&D of Biofuels. For me the two most promised lines on second generation Biofuels are algae and the conversion of Solid Municipal Waste. My best expectations are looking into a 5 to 10 years horizon.
Outside Biofuels; PV Solar and Wind generation applied on the right geography locations, like Argentine Patagonia for electricity wind generation, will be a big help.
Whether or not humans contribute substantially to climate disruption, the population is already beyond the biosphere’s sustainable carrying capacity under the current infrastructure, and the global population is swelling further and further beyond that break point every day – that is a plain fact that’s highly demonstratable from a number of observable data sets, and is not up for rational debate.
We therefore have a pair of simple sets of immediate choices to make before us:
A) First, we must remove and preclude the dominance of money within the political sphere in order to enable the agents for the following necessary changes to overcome the power of bribery (legal and otherwise)… Secondly, act collectively now to rapidly move our infrastructure off of ancient sunlight in the form of fossil fuels, and onto modern sunlight in the form of concentrated solar power (CSP), wind power, hydrokinetics, photovoltaic, passive solar – and perhaps the lowest hanging fruit, known available efficiencies, biomimicry, and symbiosis (like mixed crops and pest control using insect predators, etc.)… This will enable us to – thirdly – harvest the current energy input our planet receives daily (about 6000 times the current use) and manage our resources and product streams for a growing population in a sustainable way… Fourth, we must also quickly address population growth by a massive effort in birth control availability and education and the empowerment of women – worldwide.
B) First, deny there’s any problem… Second, admit there’s a problem, but deny we have any control… Third, admit we have control but claim the matter isn’t a top priority… Fourth, just sit back and trust that greed will use technology in time to resolve the problem before the infrastructure waste and decay and the resource depletion pull the solutions from our reach… Fifth, admit the extreme necessity of rapid action now, but fail to act in a coordinated and effective manner to remove obstacles and proceed on multiple fronts… Sixth, watch the wrenchingly cruel and unnecessary demise of human societies collapsing under their own weight and devolving into a terminally vicious insanity that makes the law of the jungle look like kindergarten – with permanently wretched consequences for the biosphere that supports us, and a vast unending parade of forever missed opportunities for all humankind.
None of us can determine our collective path alone, but each of us must determine which path we take – and contribute to – individually.
Germany is heading in the self sufficiency direction with homes becoming solar generating stations. That has reduced the need for nuclear power significantly. Why wouldn’t it work in the US? It would IMO but fossil fuel is so well entrenched that big business doesn’t want to loose its grip on the people that they will fight tooth and nail to prevent self sufficiency and freedom from foreign oil. Also conservation needs to be practiced and preached more vehemently to drown out the cries of conservative party who profit from the selling of fossil fuel energy. We the people who see the folly of the use of fossil power need to voice our concern now for the switch to renewable power sources and systems. It won’t be cheap or easy but better than no power at all when the fossil fuels are depleted or so expensive that only the rich will have power.
Whether we feel optimistic or pessimistic is really beside the point. Our mission is to each sacrifice a little bit to pollute less – and to make steady progress toward living a life that does not pollute. I pay a little extra for my electricity so it comes from renewables not dirty coal. And now, thanks to GM’s Volt, I am driving most of my miles pollution free. Everyone can do something regardless of how we feel.
Solutions – a moratorium on immigration would be a start. If the concerned and thoughtful people who have commented herein were put to the task of solving these problems I would feel better about the future. So what is the solution – the plan? Many renewable & sustainable strategies have been offered and some have been implemented, on a limited basis, in a few countries, with compromises, and then judged as an isolated sucess or failure. As you all know we need a comprehensive plan that includes all strategies. We in the US react only to real crisis but not until the 11th hour; and, seldom do our political leaders as a group, anticipate the crisis.
So why start with Immigration? It is a hot buttom political issue and often used by the right as a (albeit a red herring) cause for our social problems. But immigration can be halted by some basic legislation and such an act would put pressure on all the interested parties including agri-business, higher education institutions, high tech industry, foregn nations and their population, and first generation immigrants. The pressure on these groups should bring the interested parties to the table for a meaningful dialog toward immigration policy that would include world population growth and the limited world-wide resources that we must address. If the US is to remain a leader in matters other than military might it must include issues like the movement of populations around the world. Our own immigration policy could become a model for the world and solve the domestic political issues at the same time.
Friedman’s book, “Hot Flat and Crowded” does contain a good discussion of this topic, however technology, energy and material availability vis a vis population is only part of the problem of sustainability. A fundamental and often ignored aspect is our mindset. In this question: “We’re past the peak of oil production, thus prices can only rise as demand outstrips supply.” There is an underlying assumption that our view of supply and demand dictates prices. This assumption may be sophomoric in the petrochemical world of sacrificing life of an oil well for immediate production (flat peak oil and then sharp decline), managed (artificially limited) introduction of transportation alternatives (70% of petrochemical’s refined products are for transportation) and many hidden subsidies.
Thinking “outside the box” seems to be very difficult for most humans. We depend upon “market forces” in the petrochemical world where 5 major players are anything but a real market. Not only our transportation energy but our food and water production is heavily dependent upon petrochemicals. These world resources are, in turn, dependent upon the decisions made by a very few individuals with corporate rather than social goals. Such corporations may not be intentionally malicious forces but our social, political, and economic structures can nevertheless force choices that are disastrously divergent from sustainability.
Resource depletion is only one potential disaster that can affect the world’s population. A collapse of the world’s fiat currencies is inevitable, but no one wants to be the first to attempt a correction. Drug resistant disease, super volcanoes, climate change, solar activity, radioactivity, super tidal waves, war, genetic engineering, and mass extinctions are also suggested as possible disasters for the population. It is illegal to yell “fire” in a crowded theater without cause, but are we so blind that we can’t see that 10 billion people in a room (Earth) with no exits is inherently unsafe? We might not predict and prepare for a population incident but should infer that the likely hood of danger increases with more people and increasing signs of structural failure. Yet we try to continue and change the world and ignore how we react with it. We are the problem.
Time is on our slide. In the long run humanity has always found a solution; we will here too. We need to adopt longer time windows to make discussion rational and logical. We may not need cap and trade today, but we need to think about it. We may not be able to eliminate all nuclear plants but we need a plan.
The issue of population growth is pointless. Simply, ranting on with doomsday predictions about overpopulation, with no practical idea of how any reduction can be accomplished, without inflicting a great deal of human misery is, well, just pointless ranting. Increased third world wealth and higher levels of education for females have proven effective in reducing birthrates, but also creates social and economic problems with ageing populations.
Mankind’s saviour, is, and always will be, an ability to provide increasingly innovative technology to solve problems, while createing vast new opportunities. As the Age of OIL drawers to a close, we are already developing technologies capable of not only replacing fossil fuels oi, but providing unprecedented energy yields.
The future will always challenge our adventurous, aggressive and expansionist species. Even as the remarkable Age of Oil ends, the stars beckon. The speed of our advancement is only limited by our imagination and willingness to grasp future challenges as wondrous new opportunities.
The problem is not energy resource depletion. Traditional energy companies have been finding more ways to extract oil and gas, and there are enough proven coal reserves for decades to come. The problem is that it took millions of years for the planet to store up all that carbon underground, and releasing it all into the atmosphere in a few hundred years is just not a wise thing to do. Nor is the problem population growth. I have a hard time seeing human lives in the aggregate and saying that too many individuals share this planet with me. You are just not going to be successful convincing people to sacrifice their fossil fueled lifestyle or their cherished desire for children for what they see as a nebulous future benefit. The solution lies in creating compelling vision of a new energy economy that offers people lower cost, abundant, sustainable energy that is used to power sustainably designed buildings and vehicles that use less of it to provide more enjoyment for more people. Sustainability is a relatively new concept. Give it a few decades to catch on and the future will be bright again.
The elementary math and phys makes possible to calculate the Limits To Growth, as was done 40 years ago. Some of predictions not proves yet, but it will in the near future. Simply the Earth is limited planet, it obtains limited amounts of energy from the Sun, and life on it depends on freshwater, wchich results from evaporation-condensation of seawater. Those are limits to our life and growth.
We obtain energy from burning fossil fuels and oxygen. Both of them resulted from photosynthesis. When our use exceeds the amount of newly formed fuels and oxygen, our life is not sustainable.
There is a progress in science and technology, but until now this progress depletes Earth from usable resources. Until now the problem is not overpopulation but our everyday decisions not accounting for it. But it can easily change to worse and any change of thinking could not overwhelm the Malthusian reality – if we come into them.
We must stop subsidizing all forms of energy, Brown and Green. Then we must have full cost accounting for the ‘Costs’ of energy, including the health and social costs. Thew we must let consumers vote with their wallets and let the winners win and losers lose, and stop making applying for government grants a way of life and reward innovation instead.
Humanity can not continue exploiting natural resources endlessly, simply because they are limited. Economic growth is based on money, unfortunately money is an invention, not a natural resource, but in order to have more money, it is necessary to exploit natural resources and people. Everybody, even animals, wishes to reach happiness and get free from trouble So, we must ask ourselves: How much money do we need to be happy? Our “civilization” must shift to a new paradigm based upon well being and happiness for every living species, without disrupting ecosystems, because only preserving biodiversity, plus clean air, water and soil, we will be able to survive.
Look to Tesla, focus on the free energy surrounding us, use the water, the wind and the sun. I am hopeful simply because some countries are already demonstrating the triumph of wise navigation away from the icebergs. The USA will have to compete or sink.
AS I AM FROM INDIA, THE SECOND MOST POPULOUS NATION, I CAN SAY THESE THINGS WITH EXPERIENCE. MY SOCIETY HAS REALLY BECOME GLOBAL PRICE DECIDER FOR MANY COMMODITIES BECAUSE OF BEING LARGEST CONSUMER, WHICH IS BOON AND BANE BOTH. THAT TOO WHEN WE ARE ONE OF THE LOWEST PER CAPITA CONSUMERS. I SHUDDER AT THE THOUGHT OF OUR CONSUMPTION RATE REACHING AMERICAN LEVEL.
I think that politicians have agravated everything by interfering with the reality that we are facing. The growing population is a burden to a limited supply of water, food and energy, the only solution is to seriously embrace new renewable energy development because it not only helps reduce global warming causes but it will provide with jobs all around the world, as the new demand for manufacturing, transport, deployment and maintainance of every new machine needs. The new grids, fill up stations, etc. are needed all over the world.
Since the last Presidential administration 25% of this nations wealth is now concentrated into the top 1% of the U.S. population which is very lopsided. The “Great Depression” in the 30’s was the last time there has been this kind of wealth concentration.
I am afraid of these people (the top 1%) profiteering on our global overpopulation and they are making sure we have oil shortages, food shortages–and soon water shortages. They will be driving up the prices on all the basic necessities of life and they will be getting richer.
As a nation we are handing this power over to these people on a silver platter and this “great recession” we are in is just the beginning. Our middle class is fast disappearing and when this happens our bargaining clout will be gone.
If we can get to the point of not depending on oil and quit using our water to pump out shale oil and tar sand oil–these two processes use huge quantities of water. Grow our food at home and quit shipping our tomatoes from half-way around the world.
Renewable energy is the key to keeping a stable world and taking away the power from the oil profiteering.
Tidal energy generation, solar, wind, energy conservation–all these will have a huge impact on getting the world off the oil fix and keeping us out of the hands of the profiteers. Electric cars are just going to get better and better and this is just the beginning. Our ships will have computerized sails which will take advantage of every wind direction–our imaginations are our only limitation.
Go Green!
Dave
It matters little whether you believe in global warming,peak oil,etc. What matters is that the world is changing and the resources to fuel that change, whether it be fossil fuels or food, are both essentially finite commodities. There is really no more land on which to grow food,except what is called marginal land. What land there is, is gradually being overrun buy our expanding Human population. Studies have apparently been done on fossil fuel production which suggests it is in decline.
I would suggest that we all start acting now, even in small, seemingly insignificant ways, to use less of everything. It’s no good waiting for our ever-paternal governments to come up with some magic solution, we’ll be dead or in dire straits before that happens. Just think of something and do it – do it now!
Our future populations are in trouble and we’re the problem; not because of what we’re doing but because of what we’re NOT doing. The government is not helping, nor are the extremists on either end of the spectrum. Those in the energy industry must continue to do what they can and quit squabbling among themselves, rather they should embrace any improvement even though it might take a bit out of their own niche.
Energy is the most important issue. I would assume that we need a coherent plan before we start the awareness campaign. However, there is not yet a cheap clean solution (other than some closed cycle nuclear like the IFR and LFTR, but “nobody” will accept those). Therefore, the awareness must come first. Something like:
What’s it take to power planetary civilizations with clean energy? It will take a lot more than just rooftop solar and a few wind turbines! Why, because they are still too expensive to STORE. As the price of solar comes down and as more wind turbines are built, we will need a way to store that energy, BIG TIME!
It will not be cheap, but it will be much better than the options we have today ONLY IF there is a global determination to mass produce energy storage technology in robotic factories. Graphine, the “unrolled carbon nanotube” could be part of the solution.
The decline in CFC’s (and the lessening of the ozone hole) proves that there is hope in global collaboration! Certainly, if TEN TIMES the money was put into pure research, we would be able to store intermittent renewable energy much sooner and on an unlimited scale.
DEMAND ALL CLEAN ENERGY RESEARCH!
Increased population will put extreme pressures on civilzation but energy is need to grow and process both food and water. We in US are a little isolated but with a World of 6Billion we are very out numbered. Lots of leadership is required, but Washington DC has none!
I think that technology has a good chance of solving the problem in the long run, but if it takes 20+ years to switch away from dirty energy, the world will be much different. In 10 years dirty coal and oil will not be profitable for electrical generation.
Unschooled in overpoulation debate, its facts, its projections, I refrain from commenting here.
Regarding pollution awareness as it relates to global warning however, I offer my 2 cents: global warming has been caused, since the ’70’s, by political gridlock which in turn has been caused (in the US) by the inability of any majority of legislators to pass “impactful (sic)” laws regarding CO2 emissions.
My early ’70’s hopes for the Clean Air Act (CAA) to be enforced were long ago dashed when the personal automobile mileage requirements for 1978 were not enforced.
Legislators “across the board” took energy (coal/nuclear), oil and auto lobbyist $’s in order to remain in office; and in repayment for the lobbyists’ $, reduced in 1978 the ambitious CAA mileage requirements to meaningless – levels effectively gutting the CAA
In 1982, Al Gore was right; but he was ignored by the know-it-all, but nonetheless ignorant, Republicans.
Is it too late, 29 years after Al Gore’s appeals to Congress in 1982, perhaps? But whether it is too late, or it isn’t, commencing the mandatory enforcement of “going green” energy projects today, though quite overdue (at least since 1982 – or when the CAA was passed (was that 1970, ’71, ’72?), will each year, month, day, get us closer to surviving – all of us.
China’s needlessly polluting the air like it was 1916 (WWI) or 1942 (WWII) when the technology (electrostatic precipitators) has loooonggg existed to reduce carbon and co2 emissions from factories and energy plants at 1940’s technolgy plants by 99%.
Polluters around the globe and here in the US may either be fools or greedy (here and now profits and screw the particulates volume) or they are both – greedy fools.
big industry around the globe are the “haves” and they are poisoning the havenots with nary a thought.
Wall Street firms became profitable again last year, each broker, trader, analyst and advisor (sic) upgrading their old computer systems to new, yet they pay not $ one to recycle their old computer hardware.
For some reason the cost of recycling old CRT’s and computer parts is still, today, not included in the purchase price; and these parts are shipped to the Western pacific ring for dismantling by the ultra poor – at great health risk to the disassemblers (sic).
China is “our polluter”…
They are also streamlined like we need to be.
Environmental activists are a major setback… I say this because they block every large scale RE project (and thus use stupid litigation to drive up costs because they are paid by the existing energy companies to do so)!
We shall make a new law… NO MORE LAWS CONCERNING RE!
The fact that China has discovered the 21st century and is in the midst of an industrial doom with the largest population in the world,(ie) they plan to manufacture 1.7 million cars over the next 3 years should come as a warning to all of us, the sleeping dragon is awake and very hungry, be careful or you’ll be lunch.
The time for a real surge in green energy solutions is at hand, tnose of us who are trying to make a difference need all the help and support we can get, we can’t change the world over night but given a little more help maybe we could give it a chance at survival.
Thomas Friedman had done an excellent job of summarizing the interrelated needs, phenomena and possible solutions in “Hot, Flat and Crowded”, where he builds a case on the five big problems: energy and natural resource supply and demand, petro-dictatorships, climate change, energy poverty and biodiversity loss.
If the type of multi-tiered approach he proposes can be deployed it time, the planet at worst should be able to sustain status quo with the predicted population growth and energy /food per capita consumption. The energy is available but we need a new business model and policies to manage it.
The time must be now to deploy change through stronger, more comprehensive and sustained policies to spread use of available technologies and advance new solutions allowing the world to manage the energy within a sustainable climate, and extricate ourselves from off-shore fossil fuel dependencies. We need to honestly cost the externalities in the price of fossil fuels when comparing, including climate change, impact on biodiversity, air quality and the full cost of getting our fuel from the Middle East (we are over $1.2 trillion and counting for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars).
This needs to encompass not one solution, but the entire spectrum (solar, wind, biofuel, geothermal…) – plus fossil fuels Technology is perhaps the easiest part- the current failings are in policy and leadership and the ease with which votes and policy are purchased – not for any altruistic goals, but rather for greed and profit. We need domestic and global policies that focus on energy conservation and aggressive improvements in CAFE standards, long-term- reliable incentives for renewable technologies, and especially promoting alternatives to fossil fuels that provide energy into renewable solutions (e.g. renewable power generation to manufacture solar panels).
Although the numbers are against us in global population growth, I do believe we can still make a difference. If we can instill in each and every generation to be better stewards of the earth than the generation before, then we have a great shot at turning things around, albeit slowly. Having a child has helped instill the philosophy in me that we must act now and make this world better for future generations. In the near future, I see dwindling water resources being the biggest concern.
We need a huge push for alternative energy now! Wind & solar and more progress on hydrogen. The government should lead the way w/solar panels on all government buildings and hybrid/electric fleets. That would create many thousands of jobs and dramatically lessen our dependence on foreign oil. Educate people on the environmental and health benefits of vegetarian diets.
The economic principles that built the US economy in the 20th century are detrimental to both the economy and the environment in the 21st. China will eat our lunch for some years, but their centralized control will eventually fail them as well. My question is whether people will ultimately decide to act in the interest of the planet and future generations without having to be coerced. My feeling is that the answer is no, and for that reason, I am not optimistic about the long-term future of humanity. Big brains may turn out to be an evolutionary failure.
Unfortunately all the rhetoric we hear, see, listen to is “good” but seems that we are pursuing too many avenues at the same time which retards progress in any one technology. The resources would be better taken advantage of if we “focused” our energy on fewer technologies, develop them to their “MAX” and once achieved, go to another promising technology.
Another area where we are being compromised, as if we didn´t know already, “Big Money” as usual still has too big a hand in the mix of things which may compromise everybody in the long run foe the economic benefit of just a few. When will the public in general, wake-up and demeand that either governments intervene, or the genarl public take the rigns away from this concentrated few and go forward to benefit the whole of mankind?
When will we wake up and make the demands on governments and science to do the “right-thing”?
To Jonathan Friedman; As Geo Carlin said, “The planet will be fine, you moron! It’s us that’ll be dead.”
Otherwise, I agree with you. Our learning curve, as well as ability to “deny” reality, is a prevailing mind orienting factor in the U.S. The politicians, as well as comerce in general, have learned to pander to this and expand it. But,”The ego’s tolerance for pain is high, but not without limit.”, and we will all reach the point of awakening. The only real choice is “when”.
The world is but a reflection of our own separate mind. What we see in “it” is what we believe is really there.
The global situation has been compared to WW II as far as threatening humanity as we know it. A solution has been suggested using WWII tactics to ramp up industry with the several sustainable options: solar, wind and geothermal. This is in my opinion at this time a very possible path to minimize what most scientists believe is a dire future for most of life on earth if we do not pursue them. I have, however serious doubts given the political atmosphere driven by our oligarch cal special interest groups that has persuaded the masses to succumb to the political strategies of the rulers which favor business as usual. So I think that the necessary changes will be delayed to the point that much of humanity will be forced to endure catastrophic consequences.
Consumption is still very much king, it slowed down but only because of the economic downturn. Here is Britain we saw the ‘ buy one get one free’ change into a buy 2 get one free’ with the same disastrous effect, ie over consumption. New electronic gadgets have an enormous embedded energy, and in their life time are particularly energy hungry. Where does it leave us: disoriented with conflicting messages flying around. How can we prepare ourselves for radical behaviour change if what we hear and see is cornucopia.
World energy demand will grow by 50% by 2025, along with a growth in population that will increase pressure on farmers to increse crop yields.However,wheat is already under attack by UG99, stem rust, diminishing food supplies globally. Climate change is altering insect and disease patterns, weather patterns,and many people across the Planet are simply in a state of denial, much akin to the Titanic debacle.The crisis is here, and now,and crop yields will not be enough to feen an ever growing population.
We will need a Food Ark to save seeds and breeds to ensure our future survival.
Politics seems to trump Science, thus I see no real solutions in the near future, as we close to the tipping point of human extinction; afterall, Nature does not need us !
The Key is always Energy. When renewables make renewables, long-term costs will drop and keep dropping. That’s good for the economy, that’s good for the habitable biosphere, so that’s got to be good for people. Eradication of poverty and resource depletion will occur as a result of near to zero running costs. Meantime we have to collectively pay for the investment into this positive future, that is individuals, business and government alike, which will be expensive upfront, but less expensive than continuing not to use clean energy. At the same time, as we tend towards a low energy future, we have to look at local sustainable community growth which is necessarily part of that future: localised food and water schemes, leading to healthier people and healthier thinking. It’s a big challenge, but one we all have to engage in. The Key is Energy!
cheap solar- paintable wide spectrum is the horse we should be feeding. We have more than enough solar energy for our needs but must not use fossil fuels for that purpose.
I believe mankind has the ability to adjust to the situation. There are still untapped source of energy that can be utilized for future generation. Man will find ways to remedy the problem on hand and find solution if needed.
“population growth and energy resource depletion will have dire consequences over the coming years”. It’s a good question, however common sense. As a nation we will do nothing until it reaches catastrophic proportion.
Solar & Wind power systems at the individual level are what is needed, large systems are nice but how can people get excited about sending the same check to a different address.
Holding America back to let poluting 3rd world countries make things, & sending them money as in cap & trade will only make things worse.
We have so many regulations & costs here in the US that it is far cheaper to send businesses over seas, generating many times the polution & under paying labor.
America needs to set the example, we can make things, own things, recycle & reuse things better than anyplace else, if we unhinder business & investors with “regulations” & reward them with praise & profit.
Green has become a marketing tool, & with more praise & less put downs we can do more. Environmentalist are putting down improvements by saying its not enough. It is not yet, but let em know they are on the right track.
Renewables are very important but certainly in the UK they can not be the whole answer, we dont have enough land so we will have to use Nukes – Lets make it Thorium not Uranium though – you can’t make bombs out of Thorium and if the cooling system fails it fails safe and just sits there without the risk of going critical & killing people.
Saying we will have to use “nukes” is just a belief, and is only one way to see things. I do not favor ‘”centralized energy” as the only provision, but only “one way to see it”. “Distributed energy” is the bane of banks and wall street because it will disrupt their margin capture immensly. It may also be an insult to the “military-industrial-congressional” comples that has a choke hold on the US and the world. Just imagine for one moment a world that has no experience of lack or security and you may have an idea of what the world could be in the future with abundant distributed solar energy. Even now, most large corporations have abundant capital because is is believed by them that “taking” instead of “sharing” is the way to happiness. All of us will learn that this cannot possibly be the way and the purpose of the world will change in a seeming instant. The world will be let go of in an instant of forgiveness, and the fear of “not having enough” will be seen as the distant illusion that it is.
Correction=That is “military-industrial-compleX”, and the other typo is “INsecurity”
I completely agree that ever growing polulation and insatiable desire to extract current enery sources will have dire consequences on day to day life of every human being. The growing population will demand the higher yield from the limited rather reducing farm land and force us to use more chemicals to get higher yeild. The gowing population will cause the more consumption of energy sources and further depleting at the faster rate.
Going gree, natural and organic, using clean renewal enery is the way to go forward.
The solutions are available if we, as a nation (and world), are honest with ourselves. The problems of greed and short term thinking must be overcome. Our planet cannot survive if we do not switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy. We need to put our resources into reducing carbon dioxide now or the very nature of our lives on this planet will change dramatically. This isn’t something that may happen in the future. Climate change is happening now. We must support those who believe in science, not superstition. We must take our planet back from those who divide our world with self serving mythology. We must have the strength to face reality and the courage to do the right thing.
I do not invest in stocks directly – my IRA is in mutual funds. The point is there is no one single solution that we should be concentrating on with the exception of smart energy grids. Let oil, coal, and gas contribute as much as possible, because as solar, wind, wave, etc reaches and then passes price parity with fossil fuels the market will close them down. In the USA alone I predict a few million consumers will switch to electric cars in the next few years, and a high percentage of those will opt for some kind of auxilliary power (solar, etc). The ability of countries like Iran and Venezuela to depend on oil exports while thumbing their nose internationally will end quickly.Once the era of plentiful, cheap energy takes hold then many other problems can be dealt with easier, desalination or purification of water is very energy intensive. If we could do it cheaper then suddenly millions of acres of farmland are now usable whereas before it was desert or waste land.
The problem is not lack of new technical solutions.
The problem is the powerful forces that do not want new cheap energy and environmental solutions.
Incompetent politicians let themselves be ruled by the lobbies, which are well paid in order to maintain control over future development.
What should this group use their capital to, when our common planet can no longer provide its population clean water, air and food.
Where has this team going to live?
Most trades people see infinity machines, in any technique that they believe does not match their indoctrinated theories. How can a human construct and build an infinity machine?
If we use techniques that already exist today, but not publicly accepted, we will be able to stop population growth in fatige land and produce food and clean water to the world’s population.
Every generation has been concerned with using up all the resources of this world before their grandchildren live a full life. But so far we still populate the only habitable planet in our knowledge. About 50 years ago I first heard the problm stated that the intellegent couples usually had only one child but the lowest intelegence and lowest financially capable had the largest number of children. Before 1940 farmers needed children to work the farm then in the 50’s and up to today, we reward unwed mothers and multiple bastard children with public assistance. We reward them for “Screwing Around” Orphanage-sweatshops were successful prior to 1925, Both the cities and the churches sponsored them for a profit. Why do we neuter our pets but not our daughters and sons?
THIS IS NOT THE REPLY YOU WERE EXPECTING…
Although I’m hesitant to jump on the neuter bandwagon…. Dennis’s point is well taken. Why do we continue to give assistance to large families when doing so helps to subsidize population growth? It’s not one problem here folks: It’s all of them and it’s going to take every solution we’ve got to even have a hope of a successful future.
It’s time to start cutting our losses and luxury.
James Kunstler’s ‘The Long Emergency’ comes to mind, as well as Jared Dimond’s ‘Collapse’. The writing is on the wall, and we have to find a way to avert the ‘tragedy of the commons’. I agree with the overall proposition that without significant change the combination of population (growth is a problem, but the existing number is possibly already higher than we can carry without cheap oil) and depleting energy resources there will be dire consequences. I think the planet itself has a bright future, it will spin around the sun for millions if not billions more years. But survival of humans in the sort of numbers we now have in the world? I doubt it.
I see the price of energy rising, resulting in rising food costs and probably declining food production. The result of this will be terrible levels of human misery and possibly mass starvation, resulting in population reduction.
It looks as if this will happen even as we transition to a greater proportion of renewables, because prices will be so much higher, and by nature the alternatives are never going to have the compact efficiency of gasoline.
The wild-card for me is climate change, and whether the concentration of CO2 in the air will bring physical disasters before the dwindling supplies bring further economic disaster.
Even China will not progress if the economies that buy its output are crippled.
There may be many symptoms of energy and oxygen starvation and toxicity from the many and varried toxins invented and ex-vented my man. The first may well be the in-ability to think deeply and peacefully about the future and ones needs in general. Observing the paranoia of any strongly hooked “junky” makes this obvious. Even the junkies we see outside ourselves are healed by understanding that the essence of their existence is not brought about by their bodies, but by the mind, and they may choose again to live as their True Minds’ Creator has provided.
Unfortunitely as long as Goverment & big business march to there separate drumers the progress will be slow. Big business purchases research to protect there investment . Not to advance the research. Goverment controlls the dollar to suit reelection thus protecting there continued survival not the publics survival.
It really is not about population growth. We are so deeply entrenched in a consumerist society, we often are not aware of the consequences – we need society & lifestyle changes to carry us into the future or we are truly doomed. We will destroy this planet if we do not become aware of what we are doing, the way we are depleting it’s natural resources. Alternative, renewable energies is part of the answer and this is something that everybody can become involved in. The lifestyle changes can begin right now – how we use our electricity at home and work, how we drive our cars (if we still do that), what and how we eat, can we grow some of our own food – it’s all about commitment and leaving a legacy future generations can be proud of – not having to clean up afterwards.
Turn that light off if you don’t need it!
Can’t add too much to what has been said so far. But what scares me almost more than climate change, Peak Oil, collapsing eco-systems, poverty, exploitation and wars in the world is that by and large people do a lot less than they could actually do to make a difference, kind of like “As long as I’m/my family is OK and after me/us the deluge”. We need a lot more folks that walk the walk and not just talk the talk!
I believe that we will overcome our oil dependency and move towards a future with less pollution, more recycling and way more renewable energy. It won’t be easy and much R&D is still needed. What we can do is to allocate more money into R&D, as well as to roll out existing technologies at an even greater pace. We also need to continue to spread awareness to the general public about what they can do to help(recycling wasted food to produce biogas/fuel, leave the car behind, invest in solar panels, buy an electric car and for God’s sake! Turn that light/TV off when you leave the room!).
As for population growth, I am worried. In an ideal world, everyone would be able to enjoy the western standard of life but I do sadly think that it won’t happen, at least least not in it’s current form.
As demand for oil outstrips supply by even greater numbers the oil prices will climb. Food prices will climb even more and might cause riots in poor countries.
The best thing to do is to continue to help women take control of of their own lives and combine that with promoting education and birth control. After all, if we look at current birth rates in the western world it seems to work quite well. Obvious back draw is of course all the material wealth that’s required.
What really worries me is that the renewable energy- and green transportation sector probably took off too late. I have the impression(backed up by data I’ve seen on the subject) that there’s a gap too big to fill between current renewable output(electricity and fuel) and what we need to sustain our level of comfort… and that almost no matter what we do, there will be a turbulent period of adapting to the reality in the next 20-30 years. I suspect that this initial period of the “post-oil era” will be quite nasty but that we will eventually come out on top 🙂
For better or worse, we live in interesting times.
Humans will experience population crash due to our shortsightedness. If we are careful, it need not lead to demise of humans as a species but rather a “wake up call” to reform our economies and technologies to be more respectful of reality. We’ve been living a fantasy that we control everything and nothing can get in our way. That has to stop.
With sufficient funding for research and development, and removing subsidies for oil and coal, great progress can be made
No doubt that reality of present day population growth versus use and abuse of resources will continue and get worse in years to come. On the other hand we as a race are on the edge of accepting that things must change in order to survive. If education, research, development, along with the proper allocation of funding does not go in the right direction, nature itself will (as it appears to be starting) rectify all aspects of our existence from overpopulation to pollution and resource extraction. My belief is that we must decentralize power production and diversify to the many different technologies available and constricted only by geography and climate. Just as we must all contribute to the food we eat either on an individual basis or with community based gardens, etc. Low cost loans and/or grants should be available not to corporations but to individuals in order that locally produced power is a reality on every building and every home. Roof top small windmills, solar, energy recovery from discarded grey water, rain water usage, community sewer heat recovery through geothermal systems, small hydro shoreline production from rivers and larger tide and wave generators are all within our grasp. With less centralized power production as long as distribution is maintained or rebuilt, no catastrophy will affect as many people as we have seen in the past. We can all feed off each other in terms of power, food, jobs, education, and so on. Maybe it is only a dream I am writing about, is it?
There’s much to be done in conservation, renewable energy, safe 4th generation nuclear, but the key to all of these is government action which we simply cannot get as the system is presently configured. The answer is federally financed elections. The cost of hundreds of millions to do this can save scores of billions in special interest giveaways and influence. Take away the pull of monied interests (read oil companies, for example) and we can get common sense rules and research.
I feel that with the world’s exploding population and diminishing arable farmland we, as a population, are soon to find ourselves in a situation where the majority of the people on this planet will be without an adequate food supply. We need to stop urban areas from paving over prime farm lands and shift our reliance on other countries to provide our food when they could have been grown locally.
I think that we need to further tap into renewable resources, like solar and wind, which leave a smaller carbon footprint to help reduce the damage that fossil fuels have done to our planet. We need to further develop small wind and solar panels to reduce the cost of manufacturing and supplying these products so that every household will be generating their own power for consumption. We need to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and lessen the impact that the lobbyists have on our governments and inform our people of the benefits of clean power.
Maybe once we have pulled our heads out of the sand and see what is going on all around us we will stop believing what the big oil corporations are telling (selling) us. We need to shift our focus from what is in the ground to what is happening above the ground. Every one of us has the ability to produce our own power we just need the tools and incentive to do so.
Good Morning All,
The population growth is mainly in CHINA and INDIA
Malthusian theory in Economics has proved right in my lifetime that food supply shall be taken care of by the demands. Returning to India,my home country after over 25 years of service abroad I see food supply in abundance.The public distribution system is in shambles . Iam struck with awe for we were 300 M+ WHEN WE GOT INDEPENDENCE 60 years back and today our population is 1200 M
Nature along with human toil has produced plenty for all!!!Thanks to Dr. Barlough for his hybrid wheat strian which he came personaly to India 5 decades back to teach us its advantages
Regarding the renewable Energy issue Iam of the opinion that Fossil Fuel days are at its fag end.Science is on the job and Iam confident we shall solve the problem in due course if we can correctly define the problem Many even in the scientific world are not aware of the implications to Climate change that Fossil Fuel has. Thanks to web sites like yours who are doing a pioneering work in improving this awareness shall slowly and steadily give sufficient impetus for a Sustainable Energy Technology,I am directly involved in Mini Hydel, Solar Photovoltaic, Solar Thermal . Which of of this technology shall solve our problems remains to be seen.
Thanks and Regards
shrinivas
Population growth is a part of the problem with health, but in the USA the pollution per capita is still higher than in poorer countries, and the, well, really ignorant thing, is we have the resources to change our energy production to distributed energy here, right now, but we arrogantly refuse. We, as self appointed leaders of world economies, have lost the ability to teach truth, and it will be assumed by others. The US would rather discover “things” that we can sell to further leverage other countries to our profit because of this insane belief that capitalism is god.
Craig, you had indicated there would be a place for suggesting where we should look for prospective solutions. This is the only place available. First, we should look for systems-based solutions, not just isolated technologies, though some of these may well be crafted into a systems solution. Second, we should develop exclusionary principles and web-documented, peer-reviewed argument that can steer us away from wasting investment funds on non-economically-viable technologies such as CO2 (as opposed to biochar) storage underground and energy crops using artificial light. Third, we should web-document each of the prospective renewable energy systems solutions, linking the perceived problems at each process step with prospective solutions, their recent and expected future quantification (costs, inputs and outputs), until the best systems to pursue become obvious.
Is this something that 2greenenergy might promote to those in a position to fund or manage it as both an investor and a public service?
There are many intellegent solutions. There are many profiteering companies and industries who are making obscene profits but not with a good solutions for our world, only for their bottom line, We need to stop them. both food marketing and energy marketing include many of these profiteers. as do other industries. Like the Pirates of 200 years ago they need to be put out of business.. Perhaps you have forgotten, Communism didn’t work. we need to vote with our purchasses, buy clean and green technology and that segment of thr economy will grow. avoid purchasing from the Pirates only make purchasses from merchants who are sensitive to out world and sell products which are not going to harm our future.
People don’t realize that the size of our renewable resources are truly enormous. Population growth will mainly affect our natural resources as humans occupy greater and greater parts of the land to feed, house, work, school etc. However, if we industrialize using renewable, sustainable and green ways, we can make our existence on the planet a pleasurable one. Industrialized nations typically have sharply falling populations as opposed to 3rd world nations that typically have exploding populations. Emerging growth economies take a few generations to reach slow growth populations numbers such as found in fully industrialized nations. Green, sustainable and renewable industrialized economies will have that and a greater quality of life as well.
Just look at WWII. In the history of mankind, when the pressure for a solution gets dire enough, innovation and public drive come to mankind’s salvation. In the garages and dorm rooms of America, (including mine) those solutions to energy and food are being developed. We were first under pressure from clients, HUD and DOE to develop solutions. Because we now have some of the answers you and they are seeking, we are now under pressure from HUD, ARPA-E, DOE and FEMA to submit for funding. This past week, we were honored to be selected as semifinalists in the Clean Tech Open where professionals will help us bring them to fruition.
For example, in our ‘garage’ are solar roofs with the option of all 6 forms of solar which will cost less than new non-solar roofs and retrofit solar at less than 40% per watt of current products. We have leading-edge, green, sustainable construction systems that can withstand the worst that Mother Nature can throw at it. They will be composed of over 60% waste materials yet be more attractive than what we have today. Your dream home is projected to cost less than 1/3rd that of a current equivalent non-solar home. O-DOE studies show it will consume 24% of the energy of an equivalent Model Energy Code home BEFORE the addition of our solar roof and inexpensive electricity storage system. And the utility company will send you a nice check every month instead of the other way around. Clean Fuel will be close to $1 per gallon. For those of you worried about food for the masses, we have designs and worldwide experience for commercial greenhouses to be placed on currently non-productive land and pay for themselves in less than 5 years just from the excess electricity they will generate.
So, keep your chin up ~ there is hope for our future.
technotard
P.S. As for China, I was honored to be one of America’s delegates to the World Focus on Housing Conference held in China and have visited there as a tourist many times. What we saw was 180 degrees from what you read in the American press. Beijing does not control China, warlords do. Counter to Beijing and 11 other entities, a warlord 872 miles up river determined the height of the largest dam in the world. They are the most entrepreneurial people I have met in the world and each district goes their own way.
As the saying goes; “The stone age did not end because we ran out of stones!” the same applies to hydrocarbons. I am confident we will replace it with a bunch of alternative sources – but it’s clear the US will not be at the forefront of many of these as we allow the hydrocarbon special interest to control policy – but then again, it will be at their own demise – just look at the railroads and their navel gazing!
The 9th question: “All this is malarkey perpetuated by alarmists and political radicals. At most, the concerns are over-hyped.” Is too vague and I couldn’t figure any to correctly interpret it. Is the malarkey the climate change deniers’ nonsense? The national debt alarmists? The population alarmists? The food alarmists? The climate change alarmists? I’m afraid my malarkey may not be your malarkey.
It seems that the more we exploit the environment the closer we come toward some sort of pandemic; if we are unsuccessful in attaining some form of renewable energy program as a nation and development is slowed by indecision on the governments level we may see the population reduced anyway. I think there is a limit as to how far we can progress toward some form of sustainable renewable energy system if action isn’t taken by those within the energy industry – in spite of the government. I also don’t think we can depend on incentives to drive progress; again if we wait on government we’ll lose what ever advantage we have now and progress will slow to a standstill.
About 20 years ago the Rocky Mountain Institute established that the then current efficiency technology would allow to reduce energy consumption by 75 percent through efficiency measures. Efficiency technology has improved in the meantime. The passivehaus technology requires 90% less heating than conventional buildings, LED emergency exit lights of 1 Watt compared to the original 30 W incandescent ones are available in Germany to give just 2 examples. Exit lights previously required to provide about 10 lx at the floor level for exit lights. By waving this requirement the low wattage became legally possible.
Lighting levels claimed to be necessary have been pushed upwards since the invention of fluorescent lighting and are now 4 to 15 times higher than during the incandescent era and have led to an increase in the use of spectacles because of the generally lower quality of the more intense lighting sources. With full spectrum lighting the lighting level could be reduced by 1/3rd for the same reading acuity as proven by the Berkely National Laboratory. A review of lighting intensities by excluding the lighting industry would achieve miracles.
I agree that the problem of energy availability is getting worse by the minute, the polititians compound the problem with their selfish view. The green technologies being developed now are a good start and should be phased in until all the energy produced is renewable energy.
The cost of the transition will have to be taken into account but it is unavoidable. No one mentions the cost of importing all that oil and the cost to every customer in the world as all that wealth is tansfered to other countries while renewable energy is mostly a job creator in every country, a clean source of energy, and most importantly: the wealth stays home, contributing taxes, jobs, wealth, development, pride.
Non-polluting devices hidden by all governments to protect their billionnaire friends
On French TV they talk about electric cars but never do I hear about Tesla and his electric car, built about 100 years ago ! Nor about these many inventions we can see on internet: electric motors, cold fusion (fantastic when it will be refined). I gathered a lot of informations which I compiled in Word files, available for those who want them. It means that all western governments who know about these – and they all know – are a real worldwide maffia acting against all humanity for their own profit. I wish I would have a few million dollars – or Euros – to finance those people who published their inventon on internet, as the governments – mainly in USA – do all they can to stop them, with the complicity of CIA and other secret services (how many Americans have been killed to prevent them to reveal their invention?).
I hope the people will revolt against those criminals.
It is the unpredictability of the future that is most difficult for humans to accept. Science is a rational response to what may be fundamental uncertainties. Most people do not want to see huge and rapid changes to their lifestles when the need for them is justified by cautious but incomplete analyses. It may be that as a species we have evolved to react brilliantly to near and present danger of whatever kind and yet we lack a hard wiring to repsond to possible dangers beyond the immediate horizon. In the end I fear that human life is fragile and so some future scenarios could result in massive, uncontrolled and catastrophic population decline. Yet this outcome could still be more acceptable than any attempt to moderate overall population in a controlled and preemptive way.
Market forces are already at work, and transforming quickly our world. Most of our predictions tend to be based in linear estimations. But actually, oil price is already exerting a lot of pressure on development of alternatives to current ICEs vehicles. So, peak oil may result in ours burning out a lot of coal, therefore increasing a lot our global warming problem; or it may result in quicker and broader adoption of other energies/technologies developed for transportation, but more effective (and clean -probably as a by product). Whether future will be one way or another surely is impossible to predict. I hope we put our weight, and it is enough, to tilt it on the more convenient side … for us!
Innovation – the creation of more from less – is, and always has been, the key to growth. (Schumpeter was right!) As we exit the cheap energy era, we operate hugely wasteful systems. The potential for efficiency gains – particularly in the United States – is huge. Changing a landscape designed for fossil fuels will be difficult and painful for many. It will reduce the resource needs – and therefore increase the wealth – of more. The difficult bit will be spotting the innovations that will deliver the change.
The world population is growing mostly in the ‘third world’ countries. Most of these people are living at a low income level. They all aspire to live a western type of lifestyle. This means that as their economies grow and their incomes grow to match, more and more people will be adopting an energy hungry western living standard. Even if the population remains stable and the living standard increases this will still result in an incredible increase in the world’s energy consumption. I see the solution as being twofold. On the one hand we need to become as energy efficient as possible (develop new processes, change to cfl lighting etc) and on the other hand we need to find and develop beter ways of generating energy.
The human mind has succeeded in providing all the required technology to utilise the current resource opportunities to allow a sustainable strategy to be successfully followed for the foreseeable future (7 generations).
However, we have been unable to decouple our nature from our intellect and so are doomed to fail. Our nature requires an immediate threat for significant “step change” strategies and unfortunately the “bottlenecks” our species face only manifest themselves as a threat when a response (at BEST) can do little to mitigate the problems and so the changes we face will require us to adapt to the new (changing?) environment.
This is a common problem in natural systems, which far from the naive traditional view of ecosystems they are at best in some kind of dynamic equilibrium or regularly result in huge “blooms” in population followed by catastrophic crashes (admittedly at very small scales – not globally). This population/food availability dynamic often results in localised extinctions, when the remaining populations after a dieback event drop below viable replacement levels.
The good news is that our ingenuity, current technology and adaptability make our ability to adapt to a changing world almost a certainty. I just feel a little sorry for the majority of our species over the next 100 years as we have already almost certainly overshot our sustainable population levels at current quality of life/lifestyle choice.
Fingers crossed I’m wrong.
Population growth will be lower the next century, but food will be the biggest problem as large areas are (and will be) exploited for bio-fuel.
Until it is internationally forbidden (the market can’t regulate this, i’m afraid) to grow any bio-fuel whatsoever, hunger will influence the stability of a large part of our world.
We have to spent our money the best way possible: Renewable energy, as it is named, won’t be gone after 100 years, it’s only a matter of sense, and even right at this moment of economics, to use it. The problem is the mind-set which is all about oil. There’s money enough!
If the United States spent there money on renewable energy in stead of the Iraqi war, the whole problem would now have been history! But that’s an if-story …
The Lawyer’s ruined this country. Until your address the take over of lawyer’s by tort reform. I don’t have much hope for this country. As a people of this great country. Why don’t we start voting for politician who have the people best interest. Don’t forget, politician are the lawyer’s most anyway. They created the pollinization of this country to benifit only themselves. I heard a rumor by a farmer who land was drilled on that 9% of his royality’s of gas will be going to the politician who was the last speaker of the house. And last night on a TV program. Nancy Puloski had a 62% increase in her wealth. Why don’t we all wake up and vote only for the politician’s who are honest wether they are from the Democratic or Republican or Independant party. This is the only way this country going to get back on tract for our children future. It’s our generation duty to vote the politcian out and vote for the one’s who truly care. I would like to go solar and wind and Geo- Thermal. Price tag for all three $ 100,000 which sadly I don’t have. We need to protect our water in this country. This should be our first priorty now.
The issues of population growth and resource depletion are related, but cannot be resolved through direct interaction. Population growth remains mainly an educational and poverty relief problem mainly in developing countries, whereas resources depletion is predominently a developed country phenonemon. Changes to resource use need to occur in developed countries so that as the transition takes place from under-developed to developing to developed, they are able to adopt best practice rather than rely on the wasteful society we currently have.
We don’t have a population problem or a fossil fuels shortage. We simply need to drill for oil, use natural gas, use nuclear. If “alternative” energy technologies are ever economical then let them win in the free market place. Government should never pick winners and losers. Also Global Warming is a hoax and all about power and control to destroy capitalism and support radical environmentalists…the same ones that warning of global cooling in the 70’s and said we would run out fossil fuels by the year 2000. Focus on TRUTH and not opinion and on free markets and then energy issues will solve themselves. The use of FORCE through government is morally corrupt and wrong. Thos environmental radicals who have a good idea should start and company and innovate and compete.
Considering that within my father’s lifetime cars went from essentially nonexistent to ubiquitous and airplanes from completely nonexistent to ubiquitous, and in my lifetime semiconductors were born, as were computers and televisions, it would be hubristic to think we WON’T have a major advance like cold fusion or something else totally unimaginable to us now.
But even the most optimistic scientists offer forecasts for commercial viability on the order of one generation or more for many developments. Yes, the rate of technology improvement and invention is faster, but some of the more revolutionary developments take time. The rate of incremental change in existing technology has accelerated constantly in the past 40 years, or so. Add to that the natural impediment of regulation and risk reduction, and significant change in a generation, or less, is a huge challenge. (By the way, I’m not suggesting regulation and risk reduction is bad on its face.)
You might want to check the timeline on the ubiquity of the automobile, for example, also. The data suggests it was a little more gradual and required a number of “generations” to arrive at ubiquity from initial introduction.
Peter; In my view, we have the ability to adopt solar energy forms that are available now, but the learning curve in just so slow.
The missing piece in most analyses is that how bad things get will vary enormously by region. Most of Africa is a basket case (most countries are already net calorie importers) and the world will not be rich enough or motivated enough to save them. The western US and Canada in combination are relatively rich in renewable energy resources; as a region they could be reasonably well off, but not if they have to export heavily to the more populous parts of those countries.
Solar-wind-geothermal-all are heading down to $i.00 per watt. This must be matched by fuel cells and electrolyzers. Then the solar hydrogen economy can take off and provide jobs for the next fifty years. Concurrently fossil fuel depletion primarily oil-Rating 800 world wide sources of oil – is 7% per year. After 2012 the only limitation to the price of oil will be the rate of collapse of the weaker parts of the world economy. Higher oil prices and lower alternative prices will finally start to change things in a big way.
Yes, waiting for tomorrow is always seeming better……… We have distributed solar thermal now, for aproximately 60 cents a watt. AND, there is more heat energy available from the sun, than electrical, by a factor of four or five……… But let’s wait for tomorrow to produce cheap electricity for us, because that is what we prefer..
When things get this messed up, you have to be optomistic!
Let all of us act with optimism !
I believe that dire consequences “could result” from our current patterns of energy use, particularly our use of fossil fuels in our homes and cars. Individuals can shift to more sustainable technologies but it’s not technology or even economics that is in the the way of that shift. The “perception” of loss of luxury, status and or freedom of movement seem to be what prevents the transition to home solar, energy efficient appliances, electric vehicles, wind power….. among those with whom I’ve discussed these issues, people who I know could afford such lifestyle enhancing changes.
Only those who wish to believe or are foolish enough to believe see China as a leader in non-fossil energy growth. From a country famous for “look at my other hand” kind of distractions, one need only look at the real numbers to see it is and will be deeply dependent on fossil-fueled energy for generations to come.
Every time I read or hear unrealistic expectations for renewable energy, I am saddened at how the natural progress will likely be interrupted. Add to that political force via regulations and huge subsidy, and the cocktail for resistance gets stronger.
We cannot continue to beat the climate change drum exclusively just as we cannot continue to ignore the economic aspects of “the dream.” When only trillions of dollars will push us towards whatever goal some imagine, skepticism and scrutiny are natural responses. There is a plentiful supply of sun-driven energy, for sure. The challenge is to find a way to economically harness it and convert it without breaking the bank and alienating all but the most ardent climate catastrophe believers. We are not succeeding by a long shot.
Growth, even a modest 7%, will soon deplete our oil and gas reserves and make the argument of whether alternatives are practicle or affordable moot. See http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=6A1FD147A45EF50D for more info.
There is no doubt that strong population growth accompanied with a lack of accountability relative to responsibly managing the environment will ultimatley create an irreversable course in the decay in the quality of human life. However, it is equally irresponsible of those who wish to prevent such an inevitability to look to the government to shoulder the cost of this. Policies need to be put into place that provide incentives to develop as opposed to add to an already excessively burdened taxpayer.
It seems with the advent of collaboration via the internet/smartphones …… problems, both the acknowledgment and potential solutions, are being seen and interacted upon by a vast number of people. It appears that we are in the midst of dramatic changes in how we manufacture, educate, generate electricity, transport goods/people, share information, etc. Before a system/organism can evolve to its next level of complexity it goes through a period of chaos. Two things that I have read about lately are: physicists have made an object large enough to see with the naked eye that exhibits properties of quantum physics …. being in two places simultaneously …. and observation of an object changes its temperature and moves the object. What are the ramifications of that for the future? Keith Schwab ….. changing temp & moving object, Andrew Cleland & John Martinis ….. macro object two places simultaneously.
There can be dire consquencies to population growth and energy resources depletion if there is not a conscious effort by human inhabitants to live in harmony with planet earth. We are depleting earth’s natural resources at an excelerated rate. “global warming” -destroying our wetlands, rainforest, forestry, rivers and streams, rurual and urban communities-our eco-system using existing ernergy sources, i.e. oil, nuclear, coal, etc.). These energy sources that have been and continue to be catastrophical and unpredictable to human existance whether man-made disasters/errors or mother nature will have a major impact on population growth. We continue to development land mass in large quantities that’s deteriorating and depleting earth’s greenspaces and wildlife sanctuaries. If we are conscious of our environment, our lifestyles, reduction in human consumption and waste, use eco-freindly products, organic foods, and the conservation of earth’s natural resources, population growth, which is inefidable, will have the greatest impact and ability to influence a positive attitude towards transitioning to sustainable communities, renewable energy resources and reverse energy resource depletion.
Its a “perfect storm” of economic, environmental and sociological influences: (1) Just after oil production peaked, the demand for oil is set to skyrocket. (2) Just when our ecosystem (that we rely on for survival) has been pushed beyond the breaking point, energy demand is ramping up sharply in developing societies. (3) Just after Americans begin to realize they are living a ‘seven planet lifestyle’, the burgeoning populations in developing nations decide they want what we have, in terms of “lifestyle”. (4) Just as 1 through 3 are happening, our gamble-on-greed bubble bursts, and we suddenly believe we can’t afford to invest in anything. You couldn’t make this stuff up. We have a transformation at our doorstep. Will we finally develop the will to think strategically? Or, do we go over the cliff?
Yes the world is facing big problems, but hundreds of people and organizations have issued reports which provide a blueprint to a better future. The main thing is for people to unite and remain optimistic that a major initiative targeting energy efficiency will get us by until renewable energy sources can be ramped up. We need to start at the community level — making each town and city as energy self-sufficient and efficient as possible. We need to learn to rely on centralized systems as little as possible. All this will shift our economy away from consumption to a more service oriented one where we look after one another and the planet. It is time for humanity to evolve to the next step!
I am quite optimistic of a sustainable future base on the amounts being invest on R&D of Biofuels. For me the two most promised lines on second generation Biofuels are algae and the conversion of Solid Municipal Waste. My best expectations are looking into a 5 to 10 years horizon.
Outside Biofuels; PV Solar and Wind generation applied on the right geography locations, like Argentine Patagonia for electricity wind generation, will be a big help.
Whether or not humans contribute substantially to climate disruption, the population is already beyond the biosphere’s sustainable carrying capacity under the current infrastructure, and the global population is swelling further and further beyond that break point every day – that is a plain fact that’s highly demonstratable from a number of observable data sets, and is not up for rational debate.
We therefore have a pair of simple sets of immediate choices to make before us:
A) First, we must remove and preclude the dominance of money within the political sphere in order to enable the agents for the following necessary changes to overcome the power of bribery (legal and otherwise)… Secondly, act collectively now to rapidly move our infrastructure off of ancient sunlight in the form of fossil fuels, and onto modern sunlight in the form of concentrated solar power (CSP), wind power, hydrokinetics, photovoltaic, passive solar – and perhaps the lowest hanging fruit, known available efficiencies, biomimicry, and symbiosis (like mixed crops and pest control using insect predators, etc.)… This will enable us to – thirdly – harvest the current energy input our planet receives daily (about 6000 times the current use) and manage our resources and product streams for a growing population in a sustainable way… Fourth, we must also quickly address population growth by a massive effort in birth control availability and education and the empowerment of women – worldwide.
B) First, deny there’s any problem… Second, admit there’s a problem, but deny we have any control… Third, admit we have control but claim the matter isn’t a top priority… Fourth, just sit back and trust that greed will use technology in time to resolve the problem before the infrastructure waste and decay and the resource depletion pull the solutions from our reach… Fifth, admit the extreme necessity of rapid action now, but fail to act in a coordinated and effective manner to remove obstacles and proceed on multiple fronts… Sixth, watch the wrenchingly cruel and unnecessary demise of human societies collapsing under their own weight and devolving into a terminally vicious insanity that makes the law of the jungle look like kindergarten – with permanently wretched consequences for the biosphere that supports us, and a vast unending parade of forever missed opportunities for all humankind.
None of us can determine our collective path alone, but each of us must determine which path we take – and contribute to – individually.
Will you opt for plan B?
Germany is heading in the self sufficiency direction with homes becoming solar generating stations. That has reduced the need for nuclear power significantly. Why wouldn’t it work in the US? It would IMO but fossil fuel is so well entrenched that big business doesn’t want to loose its grip on the people that they will fight tooth and nail to prevent self sufficiency and freedom from foreign oil. Also conservation needs to be practiced and preached more vehemently to drown out the cries of conservative party who profit from the selling of fossil fuel energy. We the people who see the folly of the use of fossil power need to voice our concern now for the switch to renewable power sources and systems. It won’t be cheap or easy but better than no power at all when the fossil fuels are depleted or so expensive that only the rich will have power.
Whether we feel optimistic or pessimistic is really beside the point. Our mission is to each sacrifice a little bit to pollute less – and to make steady progress toward living a life that does not pollute. I pay a little extra for my electricity so it comes from renewables not dirty coal. And now, thanks to GM’s Volt, I am driving most of my miles pollution free. Everyone can do something regardless of how we feel.
Solutions – a moratorium on immigration would be a start. If the concerned and thoughtful people who have commented herein were put to the task of solving these problems I would feel better about the future. So what is the solution – the plan? Many renewable & sustainable strategies have been offered and some have been implemented, on a limited basis, in a few countries, with compromises, and then judged as an isolated sucess or failure. As you all know we need a comprehensive plan that includes all strategies. We in the US react only to real crisis but not until the 11th hour; and, seldom do our political leaders as a group, anticipate the crisis.
So why start with Immigration? It is a hot buttom political issue and often used by the right as a (albeit a red herring) cause for our social problems. But immigration can be halted by some basic legislation and such an act would put pressure on all the interested parties including agri-business, higher education institutions, high tech industry, foregn nations and their population, and first generation immigrants. The pressure on these groups should bring the interested parties to the table for a meaningful dialog toward immigration policy that would include world population growth and the limited world-wide resources that we must address. If the US is to remain a leader in matters other than military might it must include issues like the movement of populations around the world. Our own immigration policy could become a model for the world and solve the domestic political issues at the same time.
Friedman’s book, “Hot Flat and Crowded” does contain a good discussion of this topic, however technology, energy and material availability vis a vis population is only part of the problem of sustainability. A fundamental and often ignored aspect is our mindset. In this question: “We’re past the peak of oil production, thus prices can only rise as demand outstrips supply.” There is an underlying assumption that our view of supply and demand dictates prices. This assumption may be sophomoric in the petrochemical world of sacrificing life of an oil well for immediate production (flat peak oil and then sharp decline), managed (artificially limited) introduction of transportation alternatives (70% of petrochemical’s refined products are for transportation) and many hidden subsidies.
Thinking “outside the box” seems to be very difficult for most humans. We depend upon “market forces” in the petrochemical world where 5 major players are anything but a real market. Not only our transportation energy but our food and water production is heavily dependent upon petrochemicals. These world resources are, in turn, dependent upon the decisions made by a very few individuals with corporate rather than social goals. Such corporations may not be intentionally malicious forces but our social, political, and economic structures can nevertheless force choices that are disastrously divergent from sustainability.
Resource depletion is only one potential disaster that can affect the world’s population. A collapse of the world’s fiat currencies is inevitable, but no one wants to be the first to attempt a correction. Drug resistant disease, super volcanoes, climate change, solar activity, radioactivity, super tidal waves, war, genetic engineering, and mass extinctions are also suggested as possible disasters for the population. It is illegal to yell “fire” in a crowded theater without cause, but are we so blind that we can’t see that 10 billion people in a room (Earth) with no exits is inherently unsafe? We might not predict and prepare for a population incident but should infer that the likely hood of danger increases with more people and increasing signs of structural failure. Yet we try to continue and change the world and ignore how we react with it. We are the problem.
Time is on our slide. In the long run humanity has always found a solution; we will here too. We need to adopt longer time windows to make discussion rational and logical. We may not need cap and trade today, but we need to think about it. We may not be able to eliminate all nuclear plants but we need a plan.
The issue of population growth is pointless. Simply, ranting on with doomsday predictions about overpopulation, with no practical idea of how any reduction can be accomplished, without inflicting a great deal of human misery is, well, just pointless ranting. Increased third world wealth and higher levels of education for females have proven effective in reducing birthrates, but also creates social and economic problems with ageing populations.
Mankind’s saviour, is, and always will be, an ability to provide increasingly innovative technology to solve problems, while createing vast new opportunities. As the Age of OIL drawers to a close, we are already developing technologies capable of not only replacing fossil fuels oi, but providing unprecedented energy yields.
The future will always challenge our adventurous, aggressive and expansionist species. Even as the remarkable Age of Oil ends, the stars beckon. The speed of our advancement is only limited by our imagination and willingness to grasp future challenges as wondrous new opportunities.
The problem is not energy resource depletion. Traditional energy companies have been finding more ways to extract oil and gas, and there are enough proven coal reserves for decades to come. The problem is that it took millions of years for the planet to store up all that carbon underground, and releasing it all into the atmosphere in a few hundred years is just not a wise thing to do. Nor is the problem population growth. I have a hard time seeing human lives in the aggregate and saying that too many individuals share this planet with me. You are just not going to be successful convincing people to sacrifice their fossil fueled lifestyle or their cherished desire for children for what they see as a nebulous future benefit. The solution lies in creating compelling vision of a new energy economy that offers people lower cost, abundant, sustainable energy that is used to power sustainably designed buildings and vehicles that use less of it to provide more enjoyment for more people. Sustainability is a relatively new concept. Give it a few decades to catch on and the future will be bright again.
The elementary math and phys makes possible to calculate the Limits To Growth, as was done 40 years ago. Some of predictions not proves yet, but it will in the near future. Simply the Earth is limited planet, it obtains limited amounts of energy from the Sun, and life on it depends on freshwater, wchich results from evaporation-condensation of seawater. Those are limits to our life and growth.
We obtain energy from burning fossil fuels and oxygen. Both of them resulted from photosynthesis. When our use exceeds the amount of newly formed fuels and oxygen, our life is not sustainable.
There is a progress in science and technology, but until now this progress depletes Earth from usable resources. Until now the problem is not overpopulation but our everyday decisions not accounting for it. But it can easily change to worse and any change of thinking could not overwhelm the Malthusian reality – if we come into them.
We must stop subsidizing all forms of energy, Brown and Green. Then we must have full cost accounting for the ‘Costs’ of energy, including the health and social costs. Thew we must let consumers vote with their wallets and let the winners win and losers lose, and stop making applying for government grants a way of life and reward innovation instead.
Humanity can not continue exploiting natural resources endlessly, simply because they are limited. Economic growth is based on money, unfortunately money is an invention, not a natural resource, but in order to have more money, it is necessary to exploit natural resources and people. Everybody, even animals, wishes to reach happiness and get free from trouble So, we must ask ourselves: How much money do we need to be happy? Our “civilization” must shift to a new paradigm based upon well being and happiness for every living species, without disrupting ecosystems, because only preserving biodiversity, plus clean air, water and soil, we will be able to survive.
Look to Tesla, focus on the free energy surrounding us, use the water, the wind and the sun. I am hopeful simply because some countries are already demonstrating the triumph of wise navigation away from the icebergs. The USA will have to compete or sink.
AS I AM FROM INDIA, THE SECOND MOST POPULOUS NATION, I CAN SAY THESE THINGS WITH EXPERIENCE. MY SOCIETY HAS REALLY BECOME GLOBAL PRICE DECIDER FOR MANY COMMODITIES BECAUSE OF BEING LARGEST CONSUMER, WHICH IS BOON AND BANE BOTH. THAT TOO WHEN WE ARE ONE OF THE LOWEST PER CAPITA CONSUMERS. I SHUDDER AT THE THOUGHT OF OUR CONSUMPTION RATE REACHING AMERICAN LEVEL.
But, the largest consumer of capital letters!
I think that politicians have agravated everything by interfering with the reality that we are facing. The growing population is a burden to a limited supply of water, food and energy, the only solution is to seriously embrace new renewable energy development because it not only helps reduce global warming causes but it will provide with jobs all around the world, as the new demand for manufacturing, transport, deployment and maintainance of every new machine needs. The new grids, fill up stations, etc. are needed all over the world.
Since the last Presidential administration 25% of this nations wealth is now concentrated into the top 1% of the U.S. population which is very lopsided. The “Great Depression” in the 30’s was the last time there has been this kind of wealth concentration.
I am afraid of these people (the top 1%) profiteering on our global overpopulation and they are making sure we have oil shortages, food shortages–and soon water shortages. They will be driving up the prices on all the basic necessities of life and they will be getting richer.
As a nation we are handing this power over to these people on a silver platter and this “great recession” we are in is just the beginning. Our middle class is fast disappearing and when this happens our bargaining clout will be gone.
If we can get to the point of not depending on oil and quit using our water to pump out shale oil and tar sand oil–these two processes use huge quantities of water. Grow our food at home and quit shipping our tomatoes from half-way around the world.
Renewable energy is the key to keeping a stable world and taking away the power from the oil profiteering.
Tidal energy generation, solar, wind, energy conservation–all these will have a huge impact on getting the world off the oil fix and keeping us out of the hands of the profiteers. Electric cars are just going to get better and better and this is just the beginning. Our ships will have computerized sails which will take advantage of every wind direction–our imaginations are our only limitation.
Go Green!
Dave
It matters little whether you believe in global warming,peak oil,etc. What matters is that the world is changing and the resources to fuel that change, whether it be fossil fuels or food, are both essentially finite commodities. There is really no more land on which to grow food,except what is called marginal land. What land there is, is gradually being overrun buy our expanding Human population. Studies have apparently been done on fossil fuel production which suggests it is in decline.
I would suggest that we all start acting now, even in small, seemingly insignificant ways, to use less of everything. It’s no good waiting for our ever-paternal governments to come up with some magic solution, we’ll be dead or in dire straits before that happens. Just think of something and do it – do it now!
Our future populations are in trouble and we’re the problem; not because of what we’re doing but because of what we’re NOT doing. The government is not helping, nor are the extremists on either end of the spectrum. Those in the energy industry must continue to do what they can and quit squabbling among themselves, rather they should embrace any improvement even though it might take a bit out of their own niche.
Energy is the most important issue. I would assume that we need a coherent plan before we start the awareness campaign. However, there is not yet a cheap clean solution (other than some closed cycle nuclear like the IFR and LFTR, but “nobody” will accept those). Therefore, the awareness must come first. Something like:
What’s it take to power planetary civilizations with clean energy? It will take a lot more than just rooftop solar and a few wind turbines! Why, because they are still too expensive to STORE. As the price of solar comes down and as more wind turbines are built, we will need a way to store that energy, BIG TIME!
It will not be cheap, but it will be much better than the options we have today ONLY IF there is a global determination to mass produce energy storage technology in robotic factories. Graphine, the “unrolled carbon nanotube” could be part of the solution.
The decline in CFC’s (and the lessening of the ozone hole) proves that there is hope in global collaboration! Certainly, if TEN TIMES the money was put into pure research, we would be able to store intermittent renewable energy much sooner and on an unlimited scale.
DEMAND ALL CLEAN ENERGY RESEARCH!
Increased population will put extreme pressures on civilzation but energy is need to grow and process both food and water. We in US are a little isolated but with a World of 6Billion we are very out numbered. Lots of leadership is required, but Washington DC has none!
I think that technology has a good chance of solving the problem in the long run, but if it takes 20+ years to switch away from dirty energy, the world will be much different. In 10 years dirty coal and oil will not be profitable for electrical generation.
Unschooled in overpoulation debate, its facts, its projections, I refrain from commenting here.
Regarding pollution awareness as it relates to global warning however, I offer my 2 cents: global warming has been caused, since the ’70’s, by political gridlock which in turn has been caused (in the US) by the inability of any majority of legislators to pass “impactful (sic)” laws regarding CO2 emissions.
My early ’70’s hopes for the Clean Air Act (CAA) to be enforced were long ago dashed when the personal automobile mileage requirements for 1978 were not enforced.
Legislators “across the board” took energy (coal/nuclear), oil and auto lobbyist $’s in order to remain in office; and in repayment for the lobbyists’ $, reduced in 1978 the ambitious CAA mileage requirements to meaningless – levels effectively gutting the CAA
In 1982, Al Gore was right; but he was ignored by the know-it-all, but nonetheless ignorant, Republicans.
Is it too late, 29 years after Al Gore’s appeals to Congress in 1982, perhaps? But whether it is too late, or it isn’t, commencing the mandatory enforcement of “going green” energy projects today, though quite overdue (at least since 1982 – or when the CAA was passed (was that 1970, ’71, ’72?), will each year, month, day, get us closer to surviving – all of us.
China’s needlessly polluting the air like it was 1916 (WWI) or 1942 (WWII) when the technology (electrostatic precipitators) has loooonggg existed to reduce carbon and co2 emissions from factories and energy plants at 1940’s technolgy plants by 99%.
Polluters around the globe and here in the US may either be fools or greedy (here and now profits and screw the particulates volume) or they are both – greedy fools.
big industry around the globe are the “haves” and they are poisoning the havenots with nary a thought.
Wall Street firms became profitable again last year, each broker, trader, analyst and advisor (sic) upgrading their old computer systems to new, yet they pay not $ one to recycle their old computer hardware.
For some reason the cost of recycling old CRT’s and computer parts is still, today, not included in the purchase price; and these parts are shipped to the Western pacific ring for dismantling by the ultra poor – at great health risk to the disassemblers (sic).
Enough for today
The capacity of Western media to reprint PRC propaganda never ceases to amaze! The PRC is the world largest polluter, and the most recalcitrant.
The ROC (Taiwan) in contrast, has one of the most efficient, least polluting, industrial infrastructures in the world.
China is “our polluter”…
They are also streamlined like we need to be.
Environmental activists are a major setback… I say this because they block every large scale RE project (and thus use stupid litigation to drive up costs because they are paid by the existing energy companies to do so)!
We shall make a new law… NO MORE LAWS CONCERNING RE!
Wow, that’s quite a claim. Do you have any evidence that supports it?
Guess not!