My Next Book, In Which I Plan to Wax Euphoric on Renewable Energy
I thought you might be interested in a conversation I’m having with a friend about my new book project. I began:
I’m thinking of writing another book—this one rather exuberant in its tone. I believe that we’re poised at the edge of an amazing turnaround in the energy industry, based on:
• The steady rise of worldwide eco-consciousness, and our response to the rising number of eco-related disasters that are happening all around us
• Huge money’s licking its chops at the fact that the cost of renewable energy has fallen to the point that it’s super-competitive with fossil fuels
• The recent development of key elements of the other parts of the puzzle: smart grid, energy storage, electric transportation, efficiency, etc.
At the turn of the 21st Century, no one predicted that there would be five billion cell phones in operation a few years hence. Of course, in retrospect, we all see how the most respected research companies (that were paid hundreds of millions of dollars to analyze the subject) got all of this completely wrong. Now, I’m “calling my shot,” i.e., that humankind’s replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy will happen far faster than anyone could have possibly predicted.
When my readers absorb what the world’s most influential people are doing: Elon Musk, Richard Branson, Warren Buffett, Larry Ellison, Masayoshi Son and Bill Gates, along with the corporate giants like Ikea, BYD, Foxconn, Wuxhiang, Disney, Bloomberg, Microsoft, Amazon and Walmart—supported by banking organizations like Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, CitiGroup, etc., I think they’ll be convinced, like I am, that a “hockey-stick” growth curve for renewables is imminent, and that the domination of fossil fuels is over.
10 years ago, we were sitting around waiting for the oil companies to bring us the next generation of energy, but now, we see the handwriting on the wall. Of course, the “little people,” frustrated as they may be, have a correspondingly tiny little voice. But what will actually turn this is big money—and that level of money and power competes effectively against ExxonMobil, BP, Chevron, Shell, and so forth. They’re doomed, and I want to tell the story.
Again, I deeply respect the way you view the world and these macro changes; I look forward to your most candid feedback.
My friend writes back: You make some great points for optimism. Nevertheless, this subject is so large and complex that we have to define some boundaries to make meaningful projections.
Overall, I believe as always that the marketplace rules. The marketplace and success points differ widely for different kinds of renewables, and require differing measurements.
For example, I believe that Solar is on the way to being a big winner. Despite support by the major luminaries, like Musk, Gates, Buffett et al, more people will embrace solar only when they believe that critical mass of the market is going that way. That implies that price/performance is equal or close to equal to traditional fuels. We’re almost there. You can actually plot cost over time to prove it. I also believe there is another important incentive: fear of the status quo. When I lived in cold climates—especially Boston and New Hampshire—I always had a nagging fear that a Middle East war could make oil dry up and leave us to freeze. Solar can be a major hedge, if it is efficient enough to answer part of the shortfall.
I believe that the hybrids and electric cars might also be short-term winners. I like the new campaign for the Nissan Leaf. “If the automobile were invented today, it would be electric.” The auto market can probably change faster than any other one because cars are essentially disposables. A huge percentage of cars bought today will be junked within 10 years or less, so change can be pretty fast. However, the companies themselves are the greatest inhibitors. GM for example, has a major part of its market in the Far East, where there is little interest in anything other than price.
There are a few other points that can make or break a hockey stick jump. The political voice supporting renewables needs to be positive rather than attacking the status quo. A negative campaign to kill coal, for example, does little or nothing to make renewables attractive. To drive renewables faster, we need to sell renewables, not block pipeline construction. Renewable advocates need to appear to be mainstream, so that the very technologies they support can’t be pigeonholed as part of the far-left gripe brigade.
Good subject matter…let’s discuss it more.
I respond: Yes, the subject is large and complicated, and there are forces at work favoring the status quo that are largely invisible. Because I read and write on the subject 365 days a year, I may have a slightly keener insight into this subject than some people, but I freely admit that I don’t have access to all the vectors at play here. Having said that, I’m hanging my hat on the optimistic side at this point.
Like anything else, e.g., the horseless carriage 100 years ago, there will be a tipping point at which it’s clear to everyone that the game is over. I’m quite confident we’ll get there — though the unanswerable question remains: how much damage will we have done in the process?
There are two reasons to embrace clean energy/transportation:
• The customer, whether that’s an individual or a business, is willing to pay extra to reduce the burden he’s inflicting on the environment. (I’ll grant that this represents only a few percent of American consumers – and most individuals in the rest of the world are so poor that this is not even an option for them.)
• Despite all the lobbying in an effort to prevent this from happening, this cleantech stuff becomes cost-competitive or even provides a cost advantage. Even if we keep subsidizing fossil fuels, and refusing to put a price on pollution / internalize the externalities, we’re very, very close to achieving this.
