The Migration To Renewable Energy Is Both Essential and Impossible

I have two main theories that address our transition from fossil-based to renewable energy:

1) The challenge the world faces in phasing out fossil fuels is both absolutely imperative and ….totally impossible.  It’s akin to the paradox: what happens when an irresistible force encounters an immovable object?  A few more decades of pumping the exhaust from fossil fuel combustion into our skies will destroy our civilization.  Yet at the same time, the aggregate of the 200+ sovereign countries on Earth, and the real power behind all these thrones, has so much invested in the oil infrastructure that there is very little net incentive to decarbonize our energy.

2) Even if this weren’t the case, the world does not need dozens of different clean energy solutions.  The cost of solar PV and land-based wind are falling so fast that other more exotic ideas will not survive the winnowing out of less competitive solutions.  Here’s a piece on the development of off-shore wind; note that the bidding process by which chunks of the oceans are auctioned off for this purpose resulted in very little interest. This is an example of what I call “the time that the winners win and the losers lose.” 

So what of the paradox? Is this really a case of an irresistible force and an immovable object? No. In fact, there are no such things. To say that an object is “immovable” is to say that an irresistible force does not exist.  Conversely, to say that a force is “irresistible” is to say that an immovable object does not exist.

Optimists see it this way: there is no such thing as an immovable object–especially if that means an impediment to the survival of humankind.  All the forces for greed, selfishness, stupidity and hatred will ultimately be proven to be no match for a large and growing group of people empowered by intelligence and love. This, of course, is what we all need to believe, and what needs to inform our action.