The Vector: The Energy Challenge

Americans used 4.5% less energy during 2009 than they did in 2008, while wind power generation jumped a dramatic 37.25% last year, according to a recent report released by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Natural gas use declined, while solar, hydro and geothermal power all recorded gains. US carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption fell 7% from 2008 to 2009, according to the annual energy review of the Energy Information Administration.

But let’s not get too excited.

It seems that much of the US has a high baseline energy use that changes very little when economic activity changes. The drop in energy use in US homes in the depths of the recession was 1.95%, while in the commercial sector it was even less – only 1.06%. That does not provide much evidence of an effect from higher efficiency appliances. Energy use for transportation  dropped by 3.27%. That doesn’t sound like Americans shifted to public transport in large numbers. The big fall in energy use was in the industrial sector. It fell by almost 10%.

And the EIA’s recent Energy Outlook Report indicated that US CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are expected to resume their growth path in 2010 (+3.4%) and 2011 (+0.8%). Overall, the reports and outlook suggest that the link between energy use, CO2 emissions, and growth remain pretty robust. Renewables are growing strongly. The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) reported earlier this year that the U.S. wind industry in 2009 added nearly 10,000 MW of new capacity, reaching a total of 35,000 MW at the end of 2009. But let’s remember that they are starting from a very low base.

What an energy transition requires

According to the Stanford academics Jacobson and Delucchi, the US is expected to consume around 1.8 terawatts of energy in 2030. (One terawatt is one million megawatts). If that was to be delivered purely from wind, water and solar sources it would require:

590,000 wind turbines providing 50% of the country’s energy need (or 900,000 megawatts); 265 million roof-mounted PV systems; 6,200 utility scale solar PV plants; 46 concentrated solar power plants; 110,000 wave devices; 7,600 tidal turbine plants; 830 geothermal plants; as well as 140 major hydro plants.

Then there are the electricity distribution challenges, the requirement to overhaul the transport infrastructure, and the need for mass energy storage systems.

When you think about it, 2030 does not seem that far away.