Trump’s Promise To Put Coal Miners Back To Work Fraught with Challenge, E.g., Killing Jobs In Other Republican States
I’m not sure anyone, regardless of his political stripes, expects president-elect Trump to fulfill his promises re: the environment, if only because they are so blatantly self-contradictory. To simplify a more complicated issue, it’s (obviously) impossible to take care of our oceans and skies while advocating for fossil fuels (especially coal) and dismantling our environmental regulatory system, and pulling out of the Paris Accord.
But the situation is actually even thornier. In the article, the author argues quite successfully that re-opening coal mines will cause far more folks in the oil and gas industries to lose their jobs.
The net of all this is that Trump could more easily put buggy-whip manufacturers back to work than he can re-employ coal workers. And all this shows how far the U.S. electorate has fallen intellectually; they’d believe anything, as suggested in the cartoon from “The New Yorker” below, whose caption reads. “I’m sorry, Jeannie, your answer was correct, but Kevin shouted his incorrect answer over yours, so he gets the points.”
Craig as you are so often made clear. The final arbiter will be the economic conditions. In order for coal mining to be brought back to the levels of 10 to 15 years ago when coal represented 55% of the energy powering the grid either exports will have to expand dramatically or the market will have to be manipulated so that coal is cheaper than solar while concurrently dismantling clean air legislation protections.
One of the reasons that industrialized nations have used coal is that they have had domestic supplies. Shipping coal will necessarily raise the price. Anyone considering expanding the use of coal only has to look at the example of China to understand the true costs of this fuel. China built many coal plants and is now looking at replacement costs, migrating populations, reduced labor productivity and rising health care costs. Coal is going to be a difficult sell, but it could always be further subsidized with foreign aid. With the state department adopting Exxon-Mobil foreign policy this seems more likely.
The new administration seems poised to eliminate clean air legislation. One way to manipulate the markets would be to essentially place the country under some kind of martial law. With so many generals in the cabinet this does not seem to be such a far fetched prediction. Past presidents have already signed legislation that grants sweeping powers to the executive in the event of “emergencies.” A “high alert” situation with China is an example of the kind of emergency that could be created. Many might welcome this kind of chaos. People tend to be distracted and corruption blooms. In this type of situation employment might also increase funded by a significant amount of deficit spending… and coal workers would be put back to work.
Either way it looks like some kind of Faustian bargain with the devil where there is a hidden part of the contract far worse than the sought for advantage.
@ Breath on the Wind – Merry Christmas to you
Well Said Breath I love that ending the Faustian Bargain with the Devil…. how much net bargain will there be that is the Question perhaps???
Coal export market challenges and market realities.
countries like UK who have coal are on schedule to stop burning it 100 % in the next 4 or 5 years – changing a Democracy like the UK’s position is a much bigger lift than subsidizing exports to tin horn developing nations .
There are other European Nations that are also phasing out coal and the others have their own local supply. So the transportation cost difference you alluded too is a real factor.
The only developed country that is growing coal usage on a significant basis is Japan w 40 new plants because they have poor alternative options and the nuclear Genie has fallen out of favor to a degree.
So mark one for the Trumpet he may get some business there.
S Korea has signed some long term gas LNG deals with other suppliers .
China has done the same with Russia.
China has a large 42 inch Gas Pipeline under construction from Turkmenistan that will bring gas back to the Industrial Heartland of China. (Side note lil HRC Hillary was said to be quite indignant and flustered when she learned of this deal 4 or 5 years ago. It blind sided her then and perhaps the hangover and her arrogance carried over thru the election ) LOL LOL
Both China and India the 2 biggest entrenched users are both enacting a slow down in coal usage. Yes they will use it for years still but the Wanton uncontrolled Growth in coal is Passe! Both going heavy RE solar /wind and importing Natural gas. Some nuke builds.
A Wild Card variable is our Colleague Lawrence Combers who has some Big Power technology coming into play in the near term so more fuel to the Mix.
So Trumpster will have to make some Faustian deals like you allude to….interesting …
Bear in mind all you trumpet followers out there China just went thru a serious RED alert due to coal emissions and intense smog that caused all of Beijing and the Northern Industrial Province area and one Province South to Shut down shut down offices , schools transport factories, etc. coal plants idled etc. Serious economic / health disruptions. The Bloom is off the China Man emergence from Rice Paddy into Industrial Age.
The China problem is not going away either so their position on coal is being driven by health issues not Paris accord. They now are implementing the very same type of environmental regulations that the Trumper wants to tear up and do away with.
Talk about Cross Currents ….
Domestically its tough for coal to compete with Nat Gas or solar / wind on price. Most of the over 250 or so coal plants that have been closed were old and the capital cost was paid off so they were cheap in a sense. They were closed for a mix of rising operational , air emission compliance and age.
The newer ones are not as cheap as far as LCOE so they struggle to compete and the even newer so called clean coal like the just completed Kemper Gassification with Carbon Capture and resale in Miss cost over $5 Billion more than budgeted. A poster child of a White ( Black ) Elephant so it will take Big subsidies to get more clean coal. Kemper is $ 7.2 Billion total cost even with the subsidy already given by State. Haley Barbour Gomer Crony Capitalism deal.
Trumper is EGO driven so the long lead time for Clean coal plant construction will exceed his term so that most likely will not be a good Ego option.
How will el trumpet get the budget hawks in gop to play along with the big $$$ subsidy’s. needed to help coal compete for electric utility market.
To get Electric Utilities to reverse plans to close thousands of coal megawatts around 30,000 to 50,000 more are on chopping block now is really going to be a Super Heavy Lift. The regulatory politics at State level will be divergent to trumpers goals based on ratepayers cost. Not emissions policy he plans to tear up.
Nat Gas needs to reach $ 5.50 to $ 6 per MCF for a economic cross over point to switch back to coal especially if it is so called Clean coal with Carbon Capture. Even with gas exports those prices are not currently projected to be at those levels until 2030 .
Trumpet will be long gone and fully discredited by then so these Facts may not impress the Trumperian Trumpeters or register with them but their leader will have to dance around them like a Minefield! How Nimble is he????
Foreign competition from Australia who needs to replace lost market share as China and India have cut back should make trumpers task hard to do.
The commodity price war will be drag on profits to the producers .
West Coast States are blocking expansion of coal exporting terminals. So strong arm big government might have to over rule local restrictions another contradiction for the GOP but they seem to be immune to it. More political friction pitting West Coast Green States against Interior rural Red States ! .
Just a few details or facts but as the cartoon illustrates Facts lose in the ERA we are in now.
Stay tuned for Faustian Deals with the Devil bring em on this will be full of contradictions as Breath said.
Breath do you think we will need 3 D Glasses to see clearly thru the Smog! or will the Faustian Deals be so multi dimensional that no glasses are on the market yet to enable visualizing all the contradictions!
Trumperian entrepreneurs take note a money opportunity Looms huge for you!
If I am not mistaken Kemper is the new coal fired power plant that is the poster child of carbon sequestration and “clean coal.” …
Only that carbon doesn’t have a place to go so it is sold… to oil companies who use it to enable the production of more oil from otherwise dry wells. Rather than “sequester” carbon it may be a carbon multiplier.
The plant has come in tremendously over budget and is being essentially subsidized by rate payers for the next 25 years.
This kind of convoluted “bargain with the devil” could easily be re-branded as the miracle of “clean coal.” Unlike many I don’t see Trump as “crazy.” Rather I see an astute and calculating intelligence behind his actions. I am just trying to understand the direction from the misdirection.
But for those who would want to wilt against such a potential onslaught there are some interesting words from Bernie Sanders in this interview by Amy Goodman of DAPL fame. This last question starts at 39 minutes into the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rEGCDR6wKQ
Breath On Wind –
Yes the Kemper PlANT Is in MISSISSIPPI IN ONE OF The Poorest Counties in the state surrounded by other poor counties.
It is designed to sell residuals from its processing of low grade dirty Lignite Coal into syn gas to make power. ( like sulfur for fertilizer, ammonia also and few others.
These residual sales will give the plant much needed income to off set the Plants $5 Billion cost over runs etc. Total is $7.2 or so.
So this Clean Coal Plant is not cheap power at all nor is it competitive with other power options.
Breath yes the plant is really a carbon expander as it captures the CO2 and pipes it 80 miles south towards Old Oil fields close to Gulf.
The State gave more subsidies as the cost over runs continued to come in in an effort to lower the negative impact on electric rates.
It is already a economic white elephant and as you observed it really does not reduce carbon emissions in the aggregate. At the plant yes but not in the total aggregate so this is not a good policy option or lets say technology option at this point it seems pretty clear.
Kemper did get finished due to GOP political strings as some of the other utility owners wanted to walk away 3 years ago. The selection of cheap locally available lignite coal and the jobs it creates mining the lignite was part of the sales/ political pitch too.
Both Bush the Lessor and Obama put around $ 4 to $ 5 Billion into DOE demo clean coal plants in Illinois, Indiana and some loans to a private sector plant in either Indiana or Ohio ( memory slips me) .
These plants were going to capture CO2 and use it for industrial purposes at one and the Illinois Plant was going to just sequestrate it in geological formations in So Illinois. Demo project to prove the merits etc.
Both of the 2 big projects were shut down after 6 to 8 years of projects. So the so called clean coal w Carbon Capture is not in good shape yet to be merciful.
*** It should be noted that the anti government and all taxes are bad anti subsidy crowd looks the other way or suffers from Amnesia in that without DOE support and guidance , funding these technologies and countless others Would never get field tested or advanced at all.***
Perhaps these Truths are examples of Fasutian Deals ??? The Hand that Feeds gets bitten by those being Fed!!!
Breath there is a Coal gassification Plant from the Jimmy carter ERA operating in Beulah ND and it has been using lignite coal, converting coal to gas to make power and reselling around 11 residuals to industrial markets. The CO 2 is captured good, but shipped North via pipeline to Canada oil fields that are in decline in So Alberta.
There are a few small R & D efforts going on here and there but nothing that the Power Industry is looking forward to using.
The whole Clean Coal campaign has been long in talk and promotion and short on deliverable s for sure !
Lower prices for gas, wind and to a degree solar has made these high capital cost plants Un competitive …..thats the bottom line as well.
Despite serious Subsidies from the FEDS, some state money and a few coal industry players. Snake Eyes thus Far for Clean Coal !
The other versions of Clean coal are just plants that do treat the air and reduce most of the pollutants common to coal burning by a factor of 70 %. These began coming on line in mid 1990’s and they are the coal plants that still need to be paid off and will run for 20 to 30 more years most likely.
They are 70 % Cleaner than the 1960 thru late 1980’s vintage coal plants – these figures are claims per Coal / Power Industry But they still release the CO 2 into the Sky! So not really clean.
That’s where we are at.
My crowd are going to get partied up as we imagine the level of Faustian Bargains that are coming down the wire!!! later on May NY not be Bleak ????!!!>>??
Craig,
Times have changed, US clean technology developers are going to be forced to accept justifying technology in terms of employment and economic value as a first priority, and carbon reduction as a secondary consideration.
This is a major shift in policy, and one which will be followed by the rest of world as the size of the economic hangover is assessed in 2017 from failed and extravagant policies which focused exclusively on potential carbon reduction, rather than the ability of the technology to actually work.
The sooner green entrepreneurs and investors realize to shift has occurred, the easier it will be to make the most of the new dynamic.
Yelling, screaming and protesting at the demise of the party, will only guarantee the hangover will last longer and be more unpleasant !
@ Marco
You are correct that the new technologies must deliver good economic returns and not just rely or over focus on the carbon reduction.
Sustainable job development and growth are important also.
Green Technologies outperform the carbon sector in these areas and are one of their strongest salient points. So we should enjoy the ongoing party that is paying for itself.
The Investor crowd and Banking Institutions who finance many energy projects have guidelines and they are being met in the US by both solar and wind developers – if they were not then the funding flow would DRY Up!
As far as job creation
1.Solar which in just 10 years has over 200,000 people working a 6 month old metric. so its more by now
2.Wind employees in 26 years, over 100,000 jobs now across a wide geographic area and is growing. Revitalized the machine tool and steel fabrication sector plus fed the commercial shipping sector. The 100,000 includes support industry. Wind Technicians and Manufacturing wind employment is growing rapidly . Projected to be over 350,000 wind workers by 2030 in the US.
3. Wind and Solar Farms pay income residuals to landowners. Thus generating more economic positives.
So there is many positives to continue holding Parties for Years and Years to Come!
So Marco both of these Young Energy sector technologies are out performing dying king coal which is down to less than 65,000 people now.
Coal mines have never paid the Federal Government a fair market value for leasing the public lands to mine the dirty coal. Another subsidy for their long party. Local landowners don’t get income residuals that keep them on the farm like the lucky landowners who have a wind or solar farm on their land.
So these figures speak for themselves No need to use words to illustrate the market facts.
LET see how much More money THROWN AT ClEAN COAL and related carbon technologies??? They are the sector that should be concerned.
Perhaps they are the ones who are still calling for a Party ! or in Denial !
No comparison who has the hangover unless one is confused by the polluting smog !