Trump Administration Brings Both Winners and Losers
As Donald Trump promised it would, his presidency has been a considerable boon to Big Oil; in fact, the entire fossil fuel industry has enjoyed a huge reprieve from its slow but steady path towards obsolescence as a result of the favoritism it’s received thus far. (It’s not an accident that the ex-chairman and CEO of ExxonMobil occupies the highest cabinet position.) Simultaneously–and predictably–renewable energy has had a bit of wind taken out of its sails.
This whole approach to energy only confirms how completely disingenuous Trump is about jobs. Clean energy jobs (renewables, efficiency, smart grid, energy storage, etc.) currently outnumber jobs in oil by 2.5 to 1, and jobs in coal and gas by 5 to 1. Without any question, policies that favor fossil fuels cause a net decline in the number of jobs available to Americans; this isn’t some arcane fact; it’s perfectly obvious to anyone who is willing to invest a few minutes looking it up.
Going Beyond the Normal Discussion
Now, let’s go past the usual conversation about energy and the environment and look at the other industries and population sectors that stand to gain or falter along the course of the next four years (if the Trump presidency lasts that long).
• Coal Miners: Even the senior executives in the coal mining industry are calling out Trump for his misleading employees in this field: jobs in coal mines will not be coming back. This is true not only due to environmental concerns, but to a) the competitive landscape vis-a-vis natural gas, b) the fact that an incremental job in coal will mean the loss of several jobs in oil, and c) the use to automation to replace human labor. As discussed here: “The founder and chief executive of (huge coal concern) Murray Energy supports Donald Trump’s move to roll back Obama’s clean power plan but cautions the president to go easy on talk of a jobs revival,” because it’s simply not going to happen.
• The Poor and Elderly: It’s only a matter of time until some version of Trumpcare passes, meaning an enormous tax cut for the wealthy at the expense of healthcare benefits for tens of millions of desperate people, primarily including, ironically, Trump’s supporter base.
• Those Hoping To Be Educated: From a recent edition of the Los Angeles Times: DeVos, now confirmed as secretary of Education, is not just another inexperienced member of the president’s Cabinet. She is an ideologue with a singular educational passion — replacing our system of democratically controlled public schools with a universal voucher program that privileges private and religious ones. Now, since we’re aware that an educated electorate is vital to the success of a democracy, we need to ask ourselves: Have we forgotten that, or is this the deliberate driving of another nail in the coffin on a government that serves all the people?
• The Unemployed/Under-employed: In addition to Trump’s manifestly insincere rhetoric about jobs as discussed above, the unemployment rate in the U.S. is so low at this point we’re either at or very close to full employment. It’s extremely likely that there will actually be an increase in unemployment, which, of course, if it happens, will be ignored completely by Fox News, and written off by those Trump supporters who happen to avail themselves of other media as “fake news.”
• American Manufacturers: As Trump’s tax cuts take effect and the budget deficit increases, so will the trade deficit with places like China, i.e., more imports and fewer exports.
• One you might not have considered: The Travel Industry: Per this article: U.S. travel industry fears a ‘lost decade’ under Trump, it’s estimated that 4.3 million people this year alone will decide against coming to the U.S. because of Trump’s mean-spirited rhetoric and his lack of popularity abroad. That’s not good for anyone, and certainly not for those involved in hospitality.
Where’s the Money Going?
So all this money and social resources that are being systematically drained from the common American has to be good for somebody, doesn’t it? Doesn’t it have to go somewhere? Yes, it does. And it’s going to the uber-wealthy, further deepening the chasm between rich and poor.
Can anyone really blame the 4.3 million people who are staying away from the U.S.? Since its inception, America has been heralded for preserving its democracy, its observance of rule of law, and its blind justice system even through some pretty tough times, Watergate among them. Now, for the the first time in its history, the nation has clearly abandoned the idea that a government “of, by, and for the people” should serve all the people, not only the rich. Who wants to come visit this slow-motion train wreck? Here’s a list of 23 countries where democracy has failed (or never started); how many are on your bucket list? Egypt, maybe. See the pyramids, and get the hell out, quick.
It Gets Worse
Of course, all wealthy people benefit from Trump’s policies, if only from the enormous tax cuts they’ll receive, but some actually participate in creating those policies, and thus benefit even more. Carl Icahn (net worth $16.6 billion) is active in advising Trump on regulatory issues, and, as Forbes reported yesterday is doing a fabulous job in removing the precise regulations that hurt the companies that he himself owns.
Apparently, this is the new “American way,” i.e., hard work pays off big, especially when it goes into becoming an advisor to the U.S. President, and bringing along huge and obvious conflicts of interest. This is an important lesson for our children: keep your nose to the grindstone, and get involved in U.S. corruption as early in life as possible. You won’t regret it.
Craig,
“Big Oil has enjoyed a huge reprieve from obsolescence”
Er, that’s an interesting claim, but how exactly has the Trump administration, “reprieved” “big oil” ?
Oil companies are the largest US taxpayers, and constitute 28% of the US economy. The Oil industry produces more than 350,000 different products. If a percentage of these products were no longer produced, not only would the US economy collapse, but modern life wouldn’t be possible.
With or without Trump, the oil industry is doing just fine ! Although it’s true the current massive increase in production hasn’t been accompanied by a responding rise in demand causing a drop in price, has limited profits, that’s still good news for an industry which only a few years age was worrying about depletion of supply.
Your claim “Clean energy jobs (renewable, efficiency, smart grid, energy storage, etc.) currently outnumber jobs in oil by 2.5 to 1, “, is absurd !
The oil industry directly and indirectly, provides vastly more people in permanent employment than renewable energy. In fact, most renewable energy relies upon components made possible by by the oil industry !
I can understand your dislike of the new administration, but your outrage is becoming less and less rational.
That’s the problem with interpreting new technology through an ideological prism. Your enthusiasm for a “crusade” can lead to losing perspective and objectivity.
Re: jobs in renewable energy, I hope you’ll click on the link and read the article. I’ll admit that there’s the matter of semantics; if you count people who pump gas, you have a point.
Craig,
The article you cite appears on an obscure website “CommonDreams”, which in turn re-interpreted information published by the Sierra Club critique of a section of the DoE’s 2017 U.S. Energy and Employment Report.
Putting aside all the distortions,misinterpretations, suppositions and errors, it’s a typical piece of spin by the Renewable Fuel Industry, that rapidly becomes an urban myth or “accepted fact”.
These type of statements get repeated over and over, until they replace reality. They become popular assumptions no one ever bothers to challenge, but although no one can remember on what authority the claim was originally made, it’s now an affirmed mantra by those who support the RFA, so it must be true.
It’s a case of wanting something to be true, and if repeated long enough and by enough sources, it becomes an accepted fact and therefore true !
We recently took delivery of our third Tesla. An enthusiastic Tesla supporter observed ” The Oil Companies must hate Tesla as Tesla uses no oil”. Everyone nodded approvingly.
But that’s not quite true !
True, the Tesla model S uses no gasoline or diesel to operate, but the paint and tyres are products of the oil industry. So too are the electrical components, ceramics, plastics etc.
Tesla needs a ship, train and truck to transport the car to its new owner, all powered by the oil industry and it needs a road (black top) to drive on.
So only in on aspect is Tesla independent of the oil industry.
I could find myriad industries who rely upon oil to survive. The oil industry is even essential to wind and solar. How do you think all those components are produced and transported ?
Both Wind and to a lesser extent, Solar use essential components that are oil industry products.
The oil industry is the largest US taxpayer, it’s also the main source of US retirement and superannuation income.
Without oil industry revenue, how would the US and state governments afford to the generous subsidies to renewable energy ?Without those subsidies the industry would quickly shrink and begin to struggle. Investment would evaporate and employment disappear.
Th US Wind and Solar energy creates only a few manufacturing jobs. Most employment is in installations.
Unlike oil, Renewable eEnergy has few by products since energy is it’s basic product.
Oil industry profits are not driven solely by energy. For a long time the oil and gas industry has been studying the growing need for a cheaper more reliable method of producing industrial scale fertilizer.
Products such as sulfur-coated urea, etc are reveal the growing importance of oil industry technology in the production of fertilizer.
All of this should illustrate why, in an interconnected and complex economy, taking a “good vs evil ” , approach is unwise.
While it’s foolish to preserve employment in obsolete industries for political or ideological reasons, it’s equally foolish to discourage or disparage employment in any industry for ideological or political reason.
My objection to Donald Trump’s Presidency is not based on his odd personality (all Americans are odd) but because he doesn’t seem to understand the interconnected nature of economic principles.
But exactly the same criticism can be leveled at most of his opponents, especially the “green left”.
Amongst prospective Losers, you omitted the insurance and re-insurance industries. These are nearly next in line after the coal industry to lose out. Only this time it will be because their business model depends on spreading risk which cannot happen when all are affected at the same time by escalating climate change and ocean acidification in their various aspects. And who will invest in a business venture when they cannot get insurance for it? The insurance industry would do better to invest in climate restoration strategies that are now our only hope of avoiding climate meltdown. Some of these strategies are described at https://www.climate-restoration-foundation.com/winwick-business-solutions
Excellent point, Sev, and great to hear from you again! Had I been considering longer-term winner and losers, I would have most certainly gone there.
It’s too bad that Trump doesn’t like the future of energy but we can’t just dump oil.. yet.
Marco has a point: “everything” is still made from fossil fuels. However, that’s no reason to not somehow encourage the science research necessary to develop super cheap, super reliable bulk battery storage, the holy Grail of RE. And even such things as the molten salt reactor (it’s what we do when the ice age comes, look at the milankavich patterns, it’s rather convincing).
Therefore, the most important industry affected by Trump is that which funds scientific research in not only clean energy storage, but such things like how to quickly become a space based race, necessary to overcome asteroid strikes, how to prevent resource depletion (since the only things mined here is basically FFs, due to leftest loony environmentalists against strategic metals mining, ironically)… And, of course, the education system (thank you for enlightening).
Perhaps, the fossil boon is necessary to keep the real estate market propped up, because we all know, nothing can maintain well, during such collapses.
Excuse the “leftist enviro” thing, just being childish at the time. Labeling only limits my ability and actually reinforces “opposing” beliefs whether “wrong or right”.
What’s “right” (in my opinion) is the ability to escape, to break free from belief systems that incur cognitive dissonance.
Btw, I’m a tree hugger… (Which, apparently, is labeled “leftest”.
The energy of the SUN has and could drive continuing profit in the world. Profit allows for higher wages and more jobs. Using the SUN’s energy may save the planet’s ecosystem. This energy source is FREE (no money needed) while the fossil fuels cost money beyond the capture equipment.
Logically we will find replacements for oil and it will take time, just as we found replacements for whale oil, kerosene, and ice for cooling.
The stranded resources of many fossil fuels can never be recovered. The parts of most renewable fuel capture systems are recyclable.
The least expensive energy is saved energy due to energy efficiency. After that finding new ways to use renewable energy will save our fossil fuels for the irreplaceable things we cannot find a way to make another way or live without.
Solar hot water heating systems pay for themselves in 3-5 years over their 20-30 year life. They can be made locally, installed locally, and capture this SUN energy. Why are we waiting?
David, Environmental Analyst.
David Stout
“Solar hot water heating systems pay for themselves in 3-5 years over their 20-30 year life”.
No, they don’t ! In the vast majority of locations and applications Solar hot water systems don’t pay for for themselves for decades.
Like many overly enthusiastic environmentalists, you are confusing desire with reality.
Solar renewable energy is only one form of renewable energy and as technology improves, especially with greater storage capacity, the role of Solar as an energy provider will continue to grow.
However, Solar, like Wind,has limitations. For example, in cities where demand for hot water is largely created by residents dwelling in high rise Apartment towers, hot water is more economically and efficiently supplied by natural gas while solar would be completely impractical.
Even in suburbs with access to plentiful natural gas, the cost of installing a Solar hot water service would take decades, not two years to recover.
Regrettably, wildly optimistic claims by “true believers” just make it harder, not easier, to promote clean technology.
Credibility is created by demonstrable results, supported by clear and tangible evidence, not hopeful conjecture.