A Few Notes on Nuclear, Fossil Fuels and the Future of Energy

Here are a few remarks I made to a friend about the future of energy—nuclear in particular:

In response to your question on safety issues, interesting, nuclear has the lowest death rate per KWh of ALL sources.  Obviously, the main focus of the wars in which we involve ourselves is maintaining access to oil.  But people also occasionally slip and fall to their deaths installing and maintaining solar and wind.   As you point out, France has an enormous reliance on nuclear, and has never had a problem.  In fact, problems are rare, and they can all be traced back to errors: operation errors like Chernobyl and design errors like Fukushima.

There are also cost issues.  Building new nukes is extremely expensive, for both the developer/investor and the taxpayer, since the federal government is the only available source of insurance (it’s too large and risky for commercial insurers).

As far as where (the future of energy) is going, there are so many moving parts it’s hard to know: the falling cost of renewables, the falling demand for baseload, low-cost energy storage, and the availability of new nuclear technology that doesn’t make waste and enable the development of weapons.

Since the beginning of the nuclear age a half century ago, people have been saying that energy will be too cheap to meter.  Obviously that hasn’t happened, but it very well could, which (sorry to sound cynical) would simply force humankind to find something else to kill each other over.

The only thing that looks certain is that fossil fuels are going away, a phenomenon which, ironically has essentially zero to do with our concern for the environment (or lack thereof); it’s rooted in the cost curves, which are looking more attractive by the day.

I agree with your statement about clean energy and national security, and, as I’m sure you’re aware, this idea isn’t lost on the U.S. military, an organization that recognizes that the single most dangerous job in places like the Middle East is guarding oil supply lines.  When I speak on this subject, I often make the point that the single most patriotic thing you can do is rid our country’s reliance on fossil fuels.  I very seldom talk about climate change, because there is no reason to raise people’s hackles unnecessarily.

I know there are people who don’t believe in climate change.  But are there any who don’t believe in terrorism (funded by the Saudis)?  Dying coral reefs?  Lung cancer?