From Kansas Tech Maven Fritz Maffry: Notes on Electric Transportation
Parity and then angle up on the adoption hockey stick curve
Most indicators are illustrating that change is going to now come much faster than expected, meaning faster adoption at much higher volumes. The sheer product deluge and increasing price competition are looking significant. More on electric transportation here.
Ready for launch
The missionary work has been done, and we are now seeing advanced iterations in volume. Increasingly, large new investments are pouring in. Also, the experience stories are so positive; people know EVs work superbly, and improving every year on top of that. From Car and Driver.
Electric bikes in Holland
Electrics outsell traditional bikes in Holland; as we have been projecting, the uptake eclipse is putting pressure on the industry. E-bikes also represent an oversized portion of the profitability of the cycling business. In Western markets, sales are said to be up 78% year over year, and we see this continuing as more people are discovering the format. Our region has glaring lack of focus on this; again we keep missing breakthroughs because of failure in planning properly for disruptions. More on e-bikes.
Craig,
Enthusiastically optimistic EV pundits like ‘ol Fritz are a bit of a quandary for people in the EV industry. On the one hand, I can’t help liking his passion and enthusiasm for EV adoption, but on the other disseminating unrealistic and incautious exaggerations don’t help anyone’s credibility.
The market in China is driven by very different rules and dynamics. The lessons of China (even when the statistics are reliable and not just the product of a party propagandist, seldom translate outside of the Peoples Republic.
While it’s true a lot of serious investment has been made by many of the major Auto companies, the future of EV’s still remains a niche market.
Mass adoption will not begin to happen until EV’s can equal the convenience of ICE vehicles. Governments can create artificial markets, but these inevitably prove unsustainable.
In the meantime, electric technology in small, but significant and far more easily achievable areas is being ignored or overlooked.
These area’s may not possess the glamour or politically correct fan base of E bikes, but these humbler clean green technologies are far more environmentally significant and do a lot more to advance EV credibility.