When This Is Over…..
This is interesting, but it rests on the assumption that this will, at some point, be over. Unfortunately, it’s perfectly possible that this country will find the toothpaste impossible to put back into the tube.
About 40% of American voters support the president and all the hateful and ignorant garbage for which he stands. By what mechanism will this right itself?
Education? Not likely, given that we live in a country where one in three lower- and middle- school children can read at grade level, and where literacy programs are being defunded at every turn.
Craig,
It’s so painful watching your increasing despair and desperation.
Since the 2016 election, the President’s support rating has proved remarkably consistent averaging 43-47 %. The median average holds firm at 44%.
In recent months the President has started to gain ground with Black and Hispanic voters adding 2+ percent carrying the President’s support to 47%.
In polls which specialize in surveying these communities, which are often missed by mainstream polling, reveal an increasingly significant shift in voting intentions as Black and Hispanic voters desert the Democrats and support the President.
Most significant is the huge drop in support for the Democrats among blue collar female voters and their increasing alliegence to the populist President.
The most interesting finding was the switch in support does not transfer to other Republicans. This “hidden” support seems to be restricted to the President suggesting his support comes from his populist policies, not Party afiliation.
The other factor overlooked by optimist Democrats, is the unreliability of counting “swinging voters” as democrat supporters.
While the polls may reveal a 52 % disapproval rating for the President, it’s a mistake to assume that disapproval would translate to 52% support for a democrat candidate.
Democrat support struggles to reach 34% of voters leaving an enormous amount of voters undecided. Of greater worry for the Democrats should be when the 52% were asked whether it was the President’s policies or persona that created the disapproval, 68% replied their main objection concerned his persona, while approval of his policies, reached nearly 54%.
All this is very speculative, and much can occur of the next two years, but on this analysis, the Democrats have a very hard battle ahead in the 2020 ele3ction.
With more than 30 percent of the electorate undecided, the President clearly holds the advantage. The behavior of the Democrat dominated lower house, will, IMHO, be the deciding factor.
The Democrats have two years to convince those swinging voters the can be a credible, responsible government delivering a strong economy and focusing on the needs and aspirations of Americans.
This will not be achieved if House Democrats are perceived to be radical or unrealistic factions obsessed with fighting ideological wars with one another. Equally, US voters will react unfavorably to Democrat politicians fanatically pursuing a vendetta against the President while ignoring issues of importance to the interests of the average voter.
All the laughter and jeering at the President solution to illegal immigration is starting to engender a counter-reaction as people realize the crises on the Southern border is real and while the President’s suggestion may seem a little far-fetched, in contrast his opponents have no solution, and are delighting in damaging the lives of US voters just to frustrate and embarrass the President.
The majority of voters do not want uncontrolled illegal migration, nor will they tolerate weak and ineffective border control.
The contrast is stark, the President’s plan may be simplistic, but at least he’s addressing the problem, the Democrats are rapidly becoming perceived as the party who would rather fight Trump, than care about the wishes of the American people.
The 2020 battleground will be for the votes among the 30% of undecided voters. A democrat Candidate must win at least 80% to win office, the President only need to persuade 20%t to win a second term.
The Democrats must also avoid falling into traps.
The US Treasury has just released a comprehensive report generally confirming the President’s position.
The US Treasury revealed and much lower death toll of only 708, this figure is endorsed by most responsible and independent sources, including the UN.
Treasury also confirmed the President’s position on aid an reconstruction funding. The report heavily criticizes the endemic corruption in Puerto Rico governance as the main obstacle in effective recovery.
The problem for the Democrats is how to shake off all the wild hyperbole and even wilder claims, all of which sorta fizzled out or turned out to be just plain wrong, and emerge with a credible policies platform, beyond just hating Trunp. “Never Trump”, is no longer an effective rallying cry.
Pundits who only a years ago were confident Trump wouldn’t see out his first term without being lead away in handcuffs, or fleeing to Russia, are now forced to face the very real possibility of a Trump victory in 2020.
Quoting old articles about cutting duplicated or ineffective programs in federal education funding, won’t help.
I wouldn’t count on this “being over” anytime soon !