Climate Change Models…and Beyond
For those keeping track of the latest thinking among climate scientists, I offer this piece from last month’s Science Magazine: “New Climate Models Forecast a Warming Surge.”
The next IPCC report on the subject is due in 2021, but, interestingly, will probably minimize the use of models. “In assessing how fast climate may change, the next IPCC report probably won’t lean as heavily on models as past reports did, says Thorsten Mauritsen, a climate scientist at Stockholm University and an IPCC author. It will look to other evidence as well, in particular a large study in preparation that will use ancient climates and observations of recent climate change to constrain sensitivity. IPCC is also not likely to give projections from all the models equal weight, instead weighing results by each model’s credibility.”
Of the models used to date: “The planet is already warming faster than humans can cope with, after all. The scary part is these models might be right, because that would be pretty devastating.”
Craig,
As other readers have pointed out, the value of “modelling” is only indicative at best, at worst,intentionally deceptive !
A simple omission here, choice of more favourable fact there, assumptions and assertions elevated to “facts” carefully selective use of previous(often inaccurate) “studies”, and the “model” will say whatever the author wants the model to say.
Now if the author ( Modellers) have a devoted fan base eager to submit large numbers of supporting papers to “peer review” publications, then a “model” can be produced which can later form the basis for future ‘models’ and so on….
The above is not to suggest that all models are intentionally dishonest, but rather to illustrate how vulnerable such methodology is to inaccuracy and distortion.
Nor has ‘modelling’ no value, but nor should it be exalted beyond criticism.