The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Here’s a chat I’m having with a friend that I thought I’d publish.

Friend: Most unfortunately, none of the Democratic candidates offered up so far has an ice cube’s chance in hell of beating Donald Trump.

Craig: I disagree, as a) many of them are killing him in the polls, b) Trump’s support is waning, albeit slowly, due to his blatant insanity, and c) things are only going to get crazier as time ticks by.

Friend: I would love to say that I agree with you. No matter what, he needs to go. But I don’t see one single serious Democratic candidate … yet.

Craig: It depends on what you mean by “serious.” I presume what you’re saying is that those who are best qualified are too far to the left. That, however, is not what polls show, when you look at what the common American says about gun control, healthcare, nuclear proliferation, public education, environmental regulation and climate change mitigation,Trump’s psychopathology, cruelty at the southern border, buddying up to tyrants, the emoluments clause, obstruction of justice, Fox News, suppression of journalists, etc. Looked at from this perspective, literally any Democrat still in the race could beat Trump.

Friend: With tons and tons of due respect, much as I would be **delighted** to agree with you, logically I can’t. So far the Dems have produced candidates who are either shameless panderers (“free college tuition for all!” or “all kindsa slavery reparations on offer here!” or “Dream Act for undoc’d immigrants to become citizens!”, etc.) or have stuff in their past that simply cannot be overcome and will be fatal to a successful campaign, i.e. Warren.

They aren’t serious choices who approach this with professionalism and smarts. So far it’s 85% emotion and so very little hard substance. Endless unforced errors as well.

I think this apocryphal common American that we are used to dealing with is just not representative of most of the populace. I personally don’t know anyone who owns a gun other than perhaps a shotgun for occasional birding. But a friend of mine lives in rural New Mexico and it would be positively insane for them not to stock beaucoup firearms and ammo.

It hardly needs to be said: most of the liberals’ holier-than-thou attitudes just annoy the living bejeezus out of many folks.

To win this thing, the Dems need to find a galvanizing JFK-like figure who can realistically get people to cross party lines. I don’t mean a moderate per se — that’s a losing proposition for a number of reasons: e.g. choosing Biden to win the election would be like sending in medieval archers to conquer the Normandy beaches … not gonna work.

Trump has lit up the board as being the worst POTUS in every single category. I certainly agree with you there. The endless corruption, cruelty, and just flat-out stupidity boggles the mind. It’s hard to seriously contemplate the country suffering four more years under Trump. But the Democrat front-runners are making it awfully easy for him and I think he’ll win by a landslide unless the whole Democratic end of things is rethought.

Craig: Looking at it from that perspective, I now believe the truth is somewhere between our two extreme positions. My optimism says that America generally has had enough of the stupidity, the cruelty, the criminality, the embarrassment on the world stage, and the lies. Thus, sure, a JFK would be terrific, but in fact, Donald Duck could beat Trump.

Your pessimism says the Dems’ positions are broadly perceived as exorbitant handouts, offering to pander to the masses, which will mean a big, bloated government paid for by high taxes.

Damn, this whole thing is terrifying.

Craig: Upon further reflection I’m turning back toward optimism, and here’s why: virtually every voter in this country is on one side or the other; the sides are well defined, and they’re miles apart. We have “Trump’s America,” who adore everything they see about what’s happening here, and we have everybody else, who detest what’s happening here. The latter group includes progressives, who would like to see the socioeconomic fabric of this country look more like Europe and Scandinavia, but it also includes all manner of centrists. Next summer, the Democrats will nominate someone, and in November of 2020, everyone in this second group will vote for him or her. No whining, no third-party candidates, just a straight referendum on Trump.

Here’s yet another way of looking at this: had he not been sabotaged by the DNC leading up to the 2016 election, Bernie Sanders would be our president right now. At this point, the conditions favor Sanders over Trump far greater than they did back then, in that Trump has lost support over these last 2.5 years due, I presume, to his pathological lying, unhinged behavior, ignorance of international trade economics, and whatever else might cause a Trump voter to back off.

The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

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