The EV Adoption Curve

Here’s a recent edition of the PBS News Hour, covering the part of U.S. President Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure plan that promotes electric transportation.

According to the piece, the path to getting the replacement of internal combustion engines is not without hurdles. Consumer demand remains modest.  About 2-3% of all new cars and light trucks sold in the U.S. are electric. When we compare that with 54% in Norway, we see how pathetic we are in terms of EV adoption.  The plan calls for significant consumer rebates, investment into better batteries, and the conversion of the federal government’s fleet, but how quickly will all this affect EV sales?

Moreover, the infrastructure plan is not a done deal, given the mixed Senate.  Republicans hate everything about the plan, especially that it makes Biden look good.

My prediction:

The plan will pass, mostly intact.

The factors that limit adoption (demand, charging points, range, and indifference to environmental issues) will recede.

As this happens, EV adoption will hit an inflection point and take off rapidly.