EV Battery Swapping–Revisited

The world is in the process of phasing out internal combustion engines in favor of EVs, and there are indications, after years of disappointment, that the EV adoption curve is finally starting to take off.

Part of the challenge, of course, has been charging the batteries, especially on long trips, where even fast charging stations require 20 – 30 minutes to achieve a range of 200 miles.

Those new to this subject may not be familiar with the idea of battery swapping, in which the entire discharged battery is removed and replaced with a charged one. It’s been around at least 15 years, though it’s never been brought anywhere close to fruition.

Though this is not nonsensical at first glance, again, it’s failed miserably everywhere it’s been tried.   Perhaps the most notable failure was the 2013 bankruptcy of Project Better Place, which had raised over $1 billion in investment capital, and was initiated in Israel, arguably the optimum conceivable location, given its natural enmity to (Arab) oil.

Yet, as explained in the video below, the subject is not dead, and a San Francisco-based start-up called Ample is making a new run at the concept.

As I see it, there are several challenges here that, taken together doom battery swapping to defeat:

• The enormous cost associated with building the infrastructure.  Each station is expensive, and tens of thousands of them are required before this becomes something that the typical EV driver will embrace. There are currently about 11,000 fast charging stations in the U.S., but many more will ultimately be required.

• Battery swapping’s limited appeal.  If it has any at all, it occurs only in the context of long trips.  Contrast that with the fact that the low-hanging fruit for EV sales is the 30 million American households with two or more cars, where one of them commutes less than 50 miles per day, and no-hassle, low-cost charging happens at home or work.

• The onus is on the auto OEMs to build their cars according to this new charging paradigm.  Every automaker that expects to be present in the market 20 years from now has made a commitment to EVs.  Are they all to be expected to adopt the (yet to be determined) standard for battery swapping?

• The paradigm of owning one’s own battery.  There is no precedent anywhere on Earth, and especially in the fiercely independent American culture that says, “I own my car…except for the thing that makes it go.”

It’s the kind of thing that either works completely, or it falls on its face, as it’s done in all previous attempts.  I’m bearish.