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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

A reader notes:

I did not see a comparison to natural gas powered vehicles. It’s the most abundant fuel we have in the US, and it’s dirt-cheap.

True. Personally, I favor electric transportation because of the potential for clean transportation if they are powered with clean, renewable sources, and because of the ubiquity of the electrical grid. One can unplug one’s toaster and plug in one’s car. It is for this reason that I do not favor hydrogen; we have a landmass of 3.5 million square miles in the continental U.S. alone that would be fabulously expensive to retrofit for another fuel. Natural gas has, to a great degree, the same issue.

Other points to consider: natural gas is a fossil fuel (bad), but it’s an energy source, versus a carrier like hydrogen (good).

Finally, the reason that natural gas is abundant and thus “dirt-cheap” (as you say) is because of fracking, a practice that has considerable environmental costs that we’re just beginning to understand. 

 

 

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Fossil Fuels

Frequent commenter Glenn Doty points out that statistically, violence reduces oil production, and believes that the reason behind the invasion of Iraq was not about the access to oil per se, but for CONTROL of PROFIT from the oil. He writes:

That distinction is important, because if you shift the primary fuel dependence to require access to lithium, the motivation to control the profit from lithium will become just as strong as the current motivation to control the profit from oil… That means if we elect another warmonger, we might just find a reason to invade Chile for control of their salt flats… or something similar.

I agree that centralized control of a single commodity (say, oil) breeds autocracy and oppression. This, of course, is Thomas L. Friedman’s concept: “Fill ‘er up with dictators.” It’s also what James Woolsey (four presidential appointments, including director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency) told me when I spoke with him in preparation for my first book. (more…)

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

I received the normal pushback on my recent piece praising electric transportation. In response, I make two broad points:

1) We are most definitely headed in the direction of clean energy, electric transportation (including small, urban commuter vehicles, e-bikes, mass transit, car-sharing, etc.), smart-grid, energy storage, and so forth.  For a great number of reasons, we will not be burning coal and driving Hummers in 2050.  One of these reasons is cost: the cost of renewables is falling, and will continue to do so.

My point is that each of these arenas will improve in something close to lockstep: cheaper and cleaner energy/storage and transportation.  There are, of course, important questions about exactly how and when this will occur, and who’s going to make a buck in the process.

2) I call your attention to the variety of externalities of oil, which include war. I recently became aware that there are very scholarly, actuarial-style analyses of the value of a human life; see the discussion below if you think I’m kidding.

I’m not sure how you do this type of thinking without laughing. I just can’t imagine what Socrates, Jesus, or Buddha would say — but I can tell you very specifically what I say: our sending our children to fight and die over oil is an abomination. (more…)

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

If you’re looking for evidence that the auto companies are resisting the migration to EVs, here’s news from sunny California. It appears that Honda, Hyundai, and Toyota have successfully lobbied the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and members of the California State Legislature to open a gaping loophole in the new zero-emission vehicle mandate. Now, automakers that ‘overcomply’ with the new Federal greenhouse gas (GHG) standards can get away with producing fewer EVs. This sweetheart deal allows an automaker to cut the number of pure electric-drive vehicles by as much as 50% over the 2018 to 2021 timeframe in exchange for just 2 grams per mile GHG overcompliance during that time.

Jay Friedland of Plug-In America, whom I interviewed for my first book (Renewable Energy – Facts and Fantasies) sums it up: This is a bad deal for California and for the United States.

 

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

A reader writes in:

Craig, I’m reading your book and really like the point made about gas being double dirty and double inefficient because of the refining process. I just think that the conversation then should also look at the double / extra cost and pollution that the batteries represent. Thoughts?

Here’s the way I would look at that:

1) Batteries are more closely analogous to the gas tank than they are to the gas itself. I.e, they’re the place in which the energy is stored, and they are only minutely consumed as the electro-chemical energy is converted to kinetic energy to power the vehicle, and then recharged from an external source. (more…)

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

Assessment of energy investment in the world shows a clear path to bigger investment in renewable than non renewable. Clean energy technology is making clear progress globally, in some countries current and planned deployment of renewable far outstrip investment in non renewable energy.

More aggressive clean energy policies are required, including the removal of fossil fuel subsidies and implementation of transparent, predictable and adaptive incentives for cleaner, more efficient energy options. Due to government support and investors strategy for capital returns, solar PV and wind power are achieving strong growth. However for many developing countries where the natural potential for solar and wind power is even higher, much effort is needed in solar and wind power deployments.

(more…)

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Science

I wrote a piece recently questioning the wisdom of our leaders’ ignorance and abandonment of basic science. I  could have chosen from a few of the presidential candidates, but I happened to single out Rick Perry, who hung onto his aspiration until very recently:

Rick Perry dismisses evolution as “just a theory,” one that has “got some gaps in it.” Isn’t that a remarkable thing for a man to say who wishes to be taken seriously in the 21st Century? In the circle of biologists, the theory of evolution has the same status as Newton’s universal gravitation and Einstein’s relativity have among physicists. (more…)

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

As I do most Sundays, I took a bit of a hike the other day – my normal jog/walk, in this case from my home in Santa Ynez, CA (USA) to neighboring Los Olivos, where I had a beer and caught the last quarter of a football game on TV with a few dozen others. I don’t watch too much football, but after seven miles, a bit of numbing feels legitimate. And I tell you what, the folks in the Los Olivos Café and I became fast friends, as we all screamed out loud watching some terrific action, including one of the most spectacular plays in the history of sport.

On my way up there, however, my heart had not been as light, as my thoughts ran to putting my career in perspective. How is it possible that I was so well-embraced in my “past life” as a marketing consultant for high tech, where now I seem to be challenged to get others to see the importance of my ideas?

Several reasons, I’m sure. (more…)

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

Here, Ronald Reagan’s budget director David Stockman speaks to the level of corruption that exists between Washington and Wall Street.  I’m always impressed with people who enjoy the luxury of self-criticism; Stockman is clearly remorseful for the position he took in the 1980s.  

Anyone who expects capital formation around clean energy in the face of this type of cronyism is dreaming. We either fix this, or we suffer the consequences.

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

Ken Chan, one of our associates who helps us promote clean energy businesses in China, just wrote me:

Today, January 23, is the 1st day of the Lunar Festival, meaning the Chinese new year, the year of the “Golden Dragon,” with my cell phone buzzing nonstop with messages of Greetings and Good Tidings from Beijing.

In these five days, travelers in China are returning home to celebrate with their families. This once-a-year occasion is most auspicious and important, perhaps like Thanksgiving and Christmas in the United States. (more…)

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