If you’re involved in clean energy as a business, if you’d like to be a part of the multi-trillion dollar renewables industry, let me ask you this:  Do you ever wish you could establish win-win relationships with key business partners?  Your venture does not exist in a vacuum.  Wouldn’t it be great to develop the basic relationships you’ll ultimately need to succeed, teaming up with those who can provide a more complete, market-ready solution, product distribution — and perhaps additional investment capital?

Introducing Lindsay Oliver

Lindsay Oliver, a gentleman I came across late last year, has recently come onboard as a 2GreenEnergy associate.  Here’s a guy who’s made his life’s work establishing strategic business partnerships and joint ventures.  In his long and well-decorated career (more…)

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[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2S-lpnZVi4&w=480&h=390]

Here, I discuss a unique renewable energy business concept in the biomass to energy arena, involving construction and demolition waste.

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[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmWqERLtNYU]
For those who might have missed it, here is April’s webinar, in which I present some of my perceptions about the electric transportation industry, including my take on the most probably EV adoption curve.

Our energy consumption is closely tied to GDP. If we’re not going agrarian, if we’re concerned about shortages in energy, food, and water, EVs are 100% necessary.

National security requires energy security, and that requires weaning ourselves off oil. And there are other imperatives: health, peak oil, urban congestion, global climate change, and ocean acidification

Electric vehicles use electric motors, and batteries, capacitors, and fuel-cells.

They encompass all vehicle form-factors.

There are 230 million cars on US roads. Trucks contribute even more GHGs and other forms of pollution. Nay-sayers point to drivers’ demand for absolute freedom, risk aversion, the unwillingness to pay extra, and confusion and apathy about true ecological benefits. Global climate change deniers represent a PR miracle.

There is a huge market for EVs. The management form PRTM and I predict 10% penetration by 2020 — a $250 billion market.

There are 25 million multi-car households in single-family dwellings, with at least one car used for local commuting.
There is lots of low-hanging fruit.

There are natural limits to the adoption of EVs, e.g., Class 8 trucks, and aircraft. This
provides a large market for things like synthetic fuels for the foreseeable future.

The EV adoption curve is complicated, as supply affects demand, and demand affects supply.

There is a huge divorce between Big Auto and Big Oil. How happy is Big Auto? Ultimately, it doesn’t matter.

EV adoption faces many challenges, primarily offering the consumer an effective value proposition.

Regarding consumer adoption, here are the results of a consumer survey. The #1 reason for consumers to buy EVs is to save on gas. To what degree is consumer behavior affected by concerns for the environment?

Are EVs only applicable to a certain lifestyle? Are electric vehicles not for everyone?

I’m not sure. What happened to video rentals and CD sales?

Another point to be considered re: consumer adoption is patriotism.

If you’re concerns by things like terrorism, war, nations debt, the loss of international respect, admiration, and most of all, leadership, the replacement of internal combustion engines with EVs may be an important step in the right direction.
Do you remember what George C. Scott as General Patton said? America loves a winner and will not tolerate a loser.

Regarding the adoption of EVs, infrastructure is an issue. We need to be prepared to expect bottlenecks. There will be 400 EVs sold in San Diego in April, all with 220V charging systems, and all requiring SDG&E inspection. Customers are expecting 3 – 5 business day turn-around – all of whom will be disappointed.

Let’s explore the shifting total cost of ownership. In the old model, we had gasoline, and heavy maintenance. In the new world, we have electricity and services.

Telematics includes green routing, realtime traffic, battery monitoring, charge locations, interior preconditioning, and V2G information.

Let’s talk about business strategy – including the notion of a few tough realities. Is Carlos Ghosn for real?
No one on the “hardware” side has an incentive to push for the migration to EVs.
The OEMs and the dealers wish it were 1955.

OEMs of specialty EVs (e.g., tractors) wanting to sell through traditional dealers should think twice.

Here are a few other notes re: EV business strategy — a few more tough realities. Only niche-market strategies offer protection for start-ups. Some examples include Tomberlin, Emcycle, and EcoVElectric.
Other include e-scooters, enclosed e-bikes, and tandems.

I’ve reviewed many incredible business plans from entrepreneurs in this space. Do you want to get involved?
If so, there are numerous peripheral markets, including electricity generation, Smart-grid components, two-way communication between energy source and consumer, efficiency of consumption, demand response, and V2G.

Other opportunities lie in services, e.g., telematics, and billing.

Regaring billing services, note that this subject is totally up in the air. Suppose I live in France but I work in Germany or Belgium. Or suppose I live in Santa Barbara but I’m visiting a friend in Los Angeles. How do I pay for my charge?

Other issues in billing services include the idea of pre-paying. This does not enable CRM, which is awkward and time-consuming for the customer,

You can opt for post-pay, which enables CRM, but there are credit risks, and the expenses incurred in billing and customer service.

In either case, an issue is integration. An example of this is Easy Pass.

The charger lies between the grid and the EV. There are half a dozen or so charger manufacturers that perform grid connect. load balancing, smart charge, and certified/authenticated charge.

More chargers mean happier drivers. But how much are they used?

Batteries are improving steadily. There is no magic bullet, but with scale, technology innovation, design standards, vertical integration (BYD), and the steady removal of cost from the supply chain, we should achieve $300/kWh.

Other charging solutions include
Better Place and fast-charging.

Charging, done at home and in semi-private locations (e.g., workplace) will account for 70%+ for at least the next 10 years.

What I see in the years 2011 – 2015 includes EV sales to early adopters, and to fleets, like FedEx, Verizon, Frito Lay. This will show the world that EVs are ready to go.

What I see I the years 2016 – 2020 include the pragmatists getting onboard, and real evidence of hockey-stick growth curve.

What I see in the years 2021 – 2030 is rapid and smooth EV adoption. This is because EV powertrains are pure technology. To what degree does Moore’s Law apply?

I think we need to keep our eyes on France because of their:

Clean power (so EVs make a real difference)
Top-down public sector backing in all aspects (especially charging infrastructure)
Aggressive investments from the private sector
Active solicitation of business relationships with partners worldwide
Sophisticated/enlightened citizenry that prides itself in leadership
Smaller footprint (less than 1/10th the size of the continental US)

We should expect s surprise announcement from Toyota because:

They will cease resting on the laurels of the Prius
Toyota’s current plans for the plug-in Prius are a yawn
Their drive train is the worst of all worlds

I expect to see a heightened interest in renewable energy because of the:

Gulf spill, Japan, and gas prices

People are waking up, realizing that we in the US :

Have no energy policy, much less a federal RPS (renewable portfolio standard).

Offer only lip service in COP meetings like Copenhagen and Cancun.

Subsidize oil and coal at 12 times the rate we do renewables.

Heightened Interest in Renewable Energy

Scrupulously ignore the numerous externalities of fossil fuels

Feign concern about the national debt we’re leaving to our children

Act like we’re concerned about unemployment

Warmly embrace the behavior of an oil industry that employs 7000 lobbyists whose job is to extract favors

In the 2012 presidential election, every credible candidate will have a sane and workable position on the subject. Most will be disingenuous.

We won’t have a true democracy as long as Citizen’s United vs. FEC is in place
See www.MoveToAmend.org

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I haven’t spent too much time covering the many progressive/activist groups in the renewable energy space. But it’s worth noting that Power Shift 2011 was successful in organizing more than 10,000 people who converged in Washington, DC, this past week. As reporter Amy Goodman noted, environmentalist and author Bill McKibben told his audience in a rallying speech:

“This city is as polluted as Beijing. But instead of coal smoke, it’s polluted by money. Money warps our political life, it obscures our vision […] We know now what we need to do, and the first thing we need to do is build a movement. We will never have as much money as the oil companies, so we need a different currency to work in, we need bodies, we need creativity, we need spirit.”

We tend to look at folks who are bold enough to take to the streets like this as the “fringe,” and discount their effect. But I’m reminded of what Henry Kissinger said recently (which I paraphrase):

“We got to the point that the protesters had convinced the common American that the Vietnam war was wrong. And that is what ended the war. If that hadn’t happened, we’d still be there.”

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I’m in New York City for a few days, and I’ve scheduled my lunch today with Belen Gallego, the Director of CSP Today (Concentrated Solar Power, aka solar thermal).  When I interviewed Belen for my “Clean Energy Radio” show a few weeks ago, she impressed me as a wonderful, knowledgeable person, quite enthused with her cause.

I can’t think of a better way to spend a few hours on Earth Day, celebrating a technology that really does have the potential to transform the way we generate our electrical power.  I hope readers will learn more about this on the CSP Today website, and sign up for the free newsletter.

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I’m headed to New York City today for a series of four meetings—two of which are with heavyweights in bringing equity financing to clean energy projects, and have expressed interest in some of the business plans that I’ve sent them. I’m starting the day at Denham Capital, a global energy and commodities private equity firm, who’s taken major positions in 40 projects over the last 15 years, investing $3.1 billion in the process.

Unfortunately, per my conversations with them, nothing I have is perfect for them (though some of my projects are actually very close). But, even though I don’t have a live deal on the table there, I feel I’m knocking on the door, and since I was in The City, I thought I’d drop by and introduce myself.

Now, it’s on to the Flatiron district for an introduction to the folks at ThinkGreen. I’m really looking forward to this one.

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Visits to Washington DC are bittersweet for me. I deeply enjoy the rich sense of freedom, justice, and opportunity that are the core values on which our great country is based. But there are constant reminders that the mechanics of the political process run counter to these values—that anyone with an uncorrupted sense of decency has been systematically removed and is nowhere to be found.

Take the subject of energy as an example. As Shell Oil’s ex-CEO John Hofmeister articulates so clearly, the current political environment effectively pushes candidates into one of two camps, both of which represent nonsensical solutions to our energy woes. In truth, we need to wean ourselves off oil by committing to innovation in clean energy. But who’s making that happen? Not the political right, steadfastly maintaining the fiction that we have plenty of oil and that there are no real issues associated with continuing to burn fossil fuels. Not the left, who somehow feel they cannot acknowledge the role of fossil fuels in sustaining economic stability in the short-term. 

I love to walk around the nation’s capital and take in all the grandeur: the stunning architecture – and the feeling that great things could happen, leading us in the direction of a sane future. But I’m overcome with dread: the cold reality that there are very few people who are honestly trying to make it happen.

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Tesla with driver Erik Comas, courtesy The Telegraph

Tesla with driver Erik Comas, courtesy The Telegraph

It’s a triumph for Tesla. The Tesla Roadster beat out more than 100 clean fuel vehicles in the 5th Monte Carlo Alternative Energy Rally, repeating last year’s victory. Driven by former Formula 1 driver Erik Comas, the white roadster proved than an all-electric car is capable of hard competition and endurance.

It has an EU-certified range of 212 miles (340 km) per charge. In fact, the Tesla doesn’t need any special equipment for charging it… a conventional outlet is all that is needed. 

The Alternative Energy Rally covered more than 800 km over four days, from Annecy in the French Alps and Lugano in Switzerland to the sprints in Monaco. It followed some of the same roads as the historic Monte Carlo Rally. Some of the other cars in the race included the hybrids 2011 Honda CR-Z and the 2011 Toyota Prius, a biofueled Saab 9-3 E85, and the full electric Nissan Leaf.

The number of competitors has grown from 36 in the original Alternative race (2007) to more than 120 this year. “Next year,” said Erik Comas, “I will enter 5 Roadsters owned by my company Green Car Challenge into this amazing event.” Bravo!

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During a slow period at the Electric Drive Transportation Association conference this afternoon, I walked a couple of miles across town to interview spokespeople for the Environmental Law Institute (ELI) – Senior Attorneys Jay Pendergrass and Lisa Goldman.  We talked largely about the subsidies that our US federal government provides to energy companies, insofar as ELI recently completed a comprehensive, independent study on the subject.  “This is by far the most widely distributed report we’ve ever created,” Jay told me.  “It’s been downloaded over 18,000 times.”

ELI painstakingly pulled together information on every form of expenditures or forbearance (e.g., a tax break) that is given to fossil fuels, carbon capture and sequestration, corn ethanol, and what it calls “traditional renewables” like solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal.

The results are in the report linked above: fossil fuels get about $5.50 for every $1 going to renewables.

My main question, of course, is why our government is doing this.  The role of subsidies is to promote things that are in the public interest.  All the $70.2 billion that is going to traditional fossil fuels is accomplishing is creating “a transfer of wealth from the public to the shareholders of oil, coal, and gas companies,” as Jay explained.  Here’s $70 billion that could (should??) be going to promote things that actually are in the public interest: an end to our addiction to oil, to our empowering our enemies, to our poisoning our planet and everything living on it.

Interesting discussion, to be sure.

Now I’m off to the welcome party.  I’ll try to turn down my cynicism and enjoy myself.

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I just had a meeting with Jeff Siegel of GreenChipStocks at the Electric Drive Transportation Association conference.  When we were finished talking business, we compared notes on the event.

While it’s good to see all this happening, my personal belief is that politics, being, as it is, about consensus, tends to make for some really boring presentations. This is sad, because in truth, the migration to EVs (and renewables) is chock full of interesting and important controversy. When one considers the competition for establishing standards, the fights for subsidies and incentives, and so forth, there is actually very little agreement.

All you’re left with is that “EVs are good,” and that “the details will emerge over time.” I’m not sure we need a conference to present that.

I write this from Union Station, waiting for my train to Philadelphia.  Staying at Mom’s; driving to NYC in the AM.

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