My post on Moore’s Law earlier in the week got picked up at CleanTechies.com, we’re there has been some interesting discussion.  In particular, one really bright gentleman debated some of the mathematics of exponential growth. 

To me, however, the issue is less academic.  I think the overriding issue here is not Moore’s Law as it applies to the development of technology in a free, market-driven world that genuinely has an appetitite.  Unless I’m quite wrong here, the migration to renewables will continue to be hamstrung by the forces that are far more powerful coming from big money and politics:  subsidies, political favors, etc. 

Why don’t we in the US have a federal energy policy that firmly takes us towards health, safety, and sustainability?  Are we to suppose that this is an accident?  No, there are enormously powerful forces behind our actions (or lack thereof) — forces that trump the natural tendencies that may exist within free markets.

Does this sound like an unfair accusation?  Ask yourself: What’s the purpose of those 7000 lobbyists who work for the oil industry?

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In the news on the electric vehicle front is Terry McAuliffe, prolific political campaign fund-raiser and close friend of Bill Clinton. On Tuesday, McAuliffe will announce to world leaders at the Clinton Global Initiative a commitment to invest $1 billion to build neighborhood electric vehicles in economically depressed areas of the United States to spur the economy and create green jobs.

So how much appetite do we Americans have for cramped, cheap little cars that go 25 MPH?  I’d say it’s just a hair’s breadth this side of zero.  This enterprise will not succeed, but the only reason that it is even worthy of a conversation is the huge incentives that Mr. McAuliffe and his super-powerful buddies intend to ram through Congress. I.e., taxpayers will be forced once again to open up their wallets to make feasible a business that would have been laughed out of any corporate board room I’ve ever been in.

There is so much good that the public sector can – and must — do at this precious moment in time.  But these actions must be disciplined, well-conceived, and free of undue influence.  This example has none of these characteristics, and will justifiably raise the ire of an electorate that is already pretty fed-up with wasteful government spending.

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Here’s a question for you now that mid-term elections are here. Do you have what it takes for a career as a political speechwriter? Here’s a one-question quiz that will help you find an answer. Suppose I were running for Congress. Which campaign platform would you recommend for me? You can tell voters that I will fight to:

a) Protect women’s reproductive rights, put honesty back into government, return power to the voters, and end tax-payer bailouts for the super-rich.

OR

b) Establish a federal renewable portfolio standard (RPS), even though it is fiercely opposed by the utilities who, in a deregulated environment have used their cozy relationships with the FERC-appointed quasi-governmental agencies to hide profits and create an environment in which only a fraction of clean energy is contracted for purchase at retail net metering rates, thus quietly but effectively removing incentive for capital formation in solar, wind, and other clean energy technologies.

If you picked b), I’d advise you to make another career choice.

Kidding aside, this is the exact situation in which we find ourselves at this point, which I explain on a post I just put up on Renewable Energy World called Mid-term Elections and Discussion of a Federal Renewable Portfolio Standard.

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This morning, 2GreenEnergy’s chief financial analyst Bill Paul, known to many of you through his exclusive webinar series here, called my attention to this Bloomberg Businessweek article on mergers and acquisitions in the clean energy space.  Bill does seem to be able to get out in front of many of these trends, and correctly predicted this increase in M&A activity some time ago.

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I’ll be at the IEEE Energy show in Boston next week, a trip during which I’ll be meeting with numerous other 2GreenEnergy associates and clients – and also knocking out a few interviews for my next book on Renewable Energy Job Creation.

If you’re in the area, and you’re available for a cup of coffee, please let me know.

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Frequent commentor Alex C. writes:

We need to get government OUT of control or manipulation over energy. The only role of government is to protect citizens from excessive pollution (excluding the CO2 global warming farce). Let the private sector invest and develop the technologies and let the most ECONOMICAL and CLEAN energy win. A job created by government taking of wealth does NOT create wealth…..it just destroys it.

Alex: I actually agree with most of this. The problem lies in extricating government fully — not just out of the clean energy side, but from the fossil fuel side as well, which, according to reports I find credible, receives 12 times the level of funding that renewables does. And it goes without saying that the nuclear energy industry couldn’t exist for 10 minutes without enormous government subsidies.  The U.S. nuclear industry has received $100 billion in government subsidies over the past half-century, and federal subsidies now worth up to $13 billion a plant. 

As I noted, this list of subsidies for fossil fuels takes many forms, some of them (deliberately?) hidden: (more…)

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I like to think of myself as a man who doesn’t have to be right all the time. But once in a while, it really ain’t so bad. I have to think that this article on young people’s auto buying/driving habits is an indication that there might be some substance to my theory that we’re facing a paradigm shift in this space, in which we, as a society, cease to define ourselves according to the price of the car we drive. Linked above is a video I made not too long ago in which I mention this phenomenon.

Again, not to brag, but the author repeats my thesis virtually verbatim:

Unlike their elders, Generation Yers own fewer cars and don’t drive much. They’re likely to see autos as a source of pollution, not as a sex or status symbol.

Ta-da!! Just kidding. Sort of. 🙂

Thanks to avid supporter Cameron Atwood for bringing this to our attention.

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I deeply appreciate those of you who follow my observations of the renewable energy industry. Not everyone agrees with everything I write, but that’s quite OK with me, as disagreement is what helps us all get to the root of important matters — in this case, those that surround the technology, economics, and politics of clean energy.

Here’s another idea I thought I’d provide about which there is also room for controversy: strategic marketing. As I’ve documented in my website that describes my marketing consultancy — The Shields Group — marketing has an extremely specific function: driving sales revenues. (more…)

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I’m always interested in what the folks in electric vehicle auto design come up with.  Common wisdom dictates an approach in which an EV driver makes a bold and clear statement of his choice — and his environmental consciousness — to the world around him. And, from a design perspective, this isn’t at all hard to accomplish (but of course, that’s easy for me to say).  Simply building something a bit smaller and more aerodynamic than our standard coupes and sedans of the early 21st Century gets the job done nicely, while extending range and thus improving driver convenience.  The recently unveiled four-passenger electric car (pictured here) designed by a team of entrepreneurs based near Paris, called NEOMA, is a terrific example — though some might find it a bit extreme. (more…)

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Courtesy Albert Molon

The Seoul Metropolitan Government reports that it plans to install more than 100 EV chargers by the end of 2010. The government recognizes that lack of EV charging facilities slows down promotion of green vehicles, and so took the step of signing agreements on May 28th with three Seoul-based retailers to install the needed chargers. The agreement would allow visitors to these retailers to charge their vehicles free until the end of this year – and it may be extended.  A number (more…)

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