PhotobucketI’m flying to New York City tomorrow to meet with a new associate – a friend of a friend – who will be helping 2GreenEnergy fulfill its promise to investors and entrepreneurs. He runs a small but effective investment banking firm, and seems like a terrific human being. I’ve always loved The City, and I’m really looking forward to all aspects of this trip.

What I see developing at 2GreenEnergy is a community of many thousands of people who take the business of renewables seriously. I’ve spoken with numerous professional investors and scads of inventors with truly exciting business plans. In very short order, we hope to be bringing these two groups together, enabling the formation of dozens of new business ventures. Speaking for all of us here, I’m thrilled to be able to play such a role.

In my “past life” as a marketing consultant for IT, my company delivered services to scores of venture-capitalized start-ups, and I well remember the drill that my clients with new companies went through. Investors want clear paths to liquidity, and that comes from good ideas, but mainly from proven management teams, hungry for success. I’ll never forget what one my client’s investors told me 30 years ago, “If the CEO doesn’t have fire in his belly, I don’t want any part of it.” Here, I’m happy to say that I see a great deal of that “fire,” and this re-enforces my belief that we’re headed in the right direction.

If I have one thing to add to this, it’s the importance of a good marketing plan. When you think about it, a business plan IS a marketing plan. It’s an assertion of the existence of an unmet need, and a quantification of how the company proposes to fill that need.

I urge those with great ideas to follow their thinking through to the exact business model that will be implemented. For instance, I’m speaking with a gentleman with a radical idea for an alternative drive train, and I’m encouraging him to flesh out the business plan to include at least the broad strokes of marketing: Does he contemplate becoming an OEM in a particular niche that seems to be available? Cutting a deal with an auto OEM? With one or more motor/drivetrain suppliers? Entering the supply chain in some innovative new way? Offering a conversion kit? Developing an affiliation with a university known for its transportation engineering?

When I return from The City, I hope to be able to post a series of helpful tips about this entire process of preparing an effective business/marketing plan.

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I’m always glad when readers write in to alert me to news items in renewables that I may have overlooked. Scott Ledgerwood writes:

Craig — enjoyed your hydrokinetics write-up. In case you missed this, see DOE notice on upcoming projects for Advanced Water Power Technologies; it specifically mentions hydrokinetics.

Thanks, Scott. I heard that the DoE received 3500 requests for grant money – obviously an order of magnitude or so more than they had anticipated. My partner with the HyPEG invention is busily applying for grant money to develop his idea, and I know he’ll be glad to see this. In particular, I note that that the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee is evaluating turbine designs for fish-friendliness. As I’m sure you recall, that is one of the key features/benefits of the HyPEG.

Thanks again.

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At the risk of stating the obvious, the subject of renewable energy is so much sexier than energy efficiency. I’m always amazed at all the interest on CFL bulbs, energy-efficient appliances – even hybrid electric vehicles. Every joule of energy your sending to the wheels of your Prius is coming from the chemical energy of the gas you’re putting in the tank; you’re just managing the process if bit better. Personally, I fail to see the excitement.

Energy efficiency is like dieting. You find ways to consume less, normally at the expense of some level of deprivation. What I like about renewable energy is that, once we’d gotten a handle on it, we can consume like utter pigs! Drive a Hummer with a 600 hp motor! Heat your swimming pool in February!

Again, a solar thermal farm in the shape of a square 92 miles on a side in the southwest US desert will produce more energy each day than the entire continent of North America can consume. We need this, or any of the other ways to capture and distribute 1/6000th of the energy our planet receives daily from the sun.

I’m convinced that we have the technology at our disposal. Google “solar thermal,” “molten salt,” and “high voltage DC” and see if you don’t become convinced as well.

But do we have the political will to deploy it?

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Here’s an additional conversation with Wayne Goldman that I thought readers would find interesting. I happened to have rented an Audi A4 diesel when I was in Spain a couple of weeks ago that got well over 50 MPG. I remember wondering if we’re so concerned about gas mileage why we couldn’t have such a car in the US. But I forgot about that until Wayne wrote back to me as follows:

I’ll put together an outline of an article for your feedback…actually, I’m down on the entire automotive industry…I’ve been a car buff since the 50’s when I was driving a supercharged street rod…I’ve owned a wide assortment of classic sports cars and have seen the auto industry push the gimmicks rather then the technology…I was in California in the mid 50’s when the Volkswagen Beetle became the hot car…I could not believe how a car that was so different from the typical Detroit iron became such a fad…I bought one in 1956 and I started to believe that honest engineering would succeed…we really don’t need 3,000 to 4,000 pound vehicles as commuters…

We will only be able to live on this planet when we accept the fact that we are throwing away our resources by designing and building homes and cars that are not liveable…If Lotus can build a sports car with an 1,800 cc Toyota engine that can compete with Corvettes and Ferraris…and the Europeans are getting 50 MPG with their diesel powered cars…why can’t we utilize existing proven technology in this country…we’re the wealthiest country on earth and we don’t have high speed trains…something is wrong…I’m 75 and still riding my motorcycle…Sorry but I had to get that off my chest…I feel better already…

I wrote back: Yes.  Something, indeed, is wrong.

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PhotobucketI just had the pleasure of speaking with one of the early developers of electric vehicles, Wayne Goldman. Though I don’t agree with a lot of what he said about the EV industry, I publish it here out of sheer respect for a man whose 40 year background as an engineer has earned him credibility among us EV enthusiasts:

Craig Shields: I’m sure readers would like to hear about the early days of EV development. Please tell me your story.

Wayne Goldman: I’d be glad to. In 1969 I was the engineering manager of Anderson Power Products, the major manufacturer of connectors used in battery-based equipment, like forklift trucks. It was boring. But one day I was looking through a copy of Scientific American and read about an electric car race from MIT to UCLA. I asked the president of the company if I could design a car for the race, and he said sure. Do it at home. I’ll pay for the materials. It featured a replaceable battery back.

CS: Ah. An early “Better Place?”

WG: Yes, you don’t have to sell the battery with the car. It’s the energy the car uses – not the car itself.

And we proved you don’t need $300 million to test a concept. That’s what drives me crazy about the way this industry is going. It doesn’t have to be everything to all people. Just design the vehicle for a specific use that a certain group wants to buy.

CS: OK, how did the project go?

WG: It was a great success. We got AVIS involved as a co-sponsor. After the race I asked the president to give me a small budget and to build a commuter vehicle. For $25,000 I built 2-passenger commuter. It was on the cover of Popular Mechanics, on CBS news – all over the place.

The Post Office saw what we were doing, and asked us to design an electric delivery vehicle. After three months of testing, everybody loved it. But the guy who bought the vehicles for the Post Office wouldn’t buy from a small company; he told me, “We’ll buy them when AM General (American Motors) builds them.” Finally, AM General did a joint venture with Gould that turned about to be a total disaster.

CS: Wow. What did the world learn from that, do you think?

WG: The bottom line is that you can’t convert a car to electric. It has to be designed from the ground up. But design them for specific purposes. I’ve build EVs for coal mining and baggage handling for the airlines.

CS: What about passenger cars?

WG: There is a specific market there, for commuters. But as a consumer, no one’s going to pay $50K for a commuter car. The world needs a cheap, fun, 2-passerger commuter. Don’t try to replace conventional cars.

Here’s another issue: EVs are 20-year vehicles. But after 10 – 12 years, you get pretty tired of your car. So I’ve designed a car that in the summertime is convertible and in the winter is a coupe.

CS: So you see the whole EV industry as headed essentially the wrong way. What about the Nissan Leaf, the Mitsubishi i-MiEV, the Mini E, and the dozens of other EVs that will be hitting the streets in the next couple of years?

WG: It’s not the direction I would go. I live in Vermont and one my neighbors has a Tesla. It drives me completely crazy. Accelerating like a Ferrari may impress potential investors, but it’s not what people want, and it’s not the core strength of electric transportation.

CS: Did you mention that you had a book available? I’d be happy to link to it.

WG. Yes, it’s “My Thirteen Years Designing, Building and Testing Electric Vehicles 1969 to 1981”

CS: Thanks very much, sir. I’ve enjoyed the conversation.

WG: Me too.

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I want to thank the authors of the GreenEnergyBlog for providing the extremely valuable service of mythbusting in the renewables industry. Like many of us, I come across many outrageous claims each week, tantamount to perpetual motion machines and other obvious violations of the basic laws of physics. I routinely speak or write to the “inventors,” only to find — surprise! — they need investor funding to get their idea to the point of a working model. Sorry, no such funding will be coming from me.

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PhotobucketWe here in the US rank 13th of the top 15 oil-producing nations, with only 2% of the reserves– yet we use 25% of world oil production with only about 5% of the world’s population. While we in America use 20 million barrels of oil a day, and would exhaust our domestic reserve in less than three years without foreign supplies, Iraq possesses the second largest oil reserve in the world. If this huge Iraqi reserve were combined with the nearly equal reserve in its pre-WWI province now known as Kuwait, it would rival even the Saudi reserve – the largest in the world. In terms of oil strength, these three Arab states are followed by the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Venezuela, the former Yugoslavia, Russia, Libya and Mexico.

Note this group is a veritable Who’s Who of 20th (and 21st) century US “foreign intervention.” Way back in the 1920’s, after the fall of the Ottoman Empire, the USA, Britain and France carved the Middle East into manageable bits, drawing each new border to divide local cultures and deliberately enclose a new mix of rival ethnic elements. The UK and US then established Israel as a refuge for the persecuted Jewish people, and as a bastion of western influence in the region. From the 1930’s through the 1960’s, US oil and automobile companies spent great sums of money lobbying state and federal governments to fund a national transportation system based on the exclusive use of their products.

From beginning of the 2000 election cycle to 2006 alone, the major oil corporations supplied $52 million in campaign contributions. Of this cash pile, 80% was given to Republican campaigns. Following the widely criticized “Energy Task Force” strategy meetings that Mr. Cheney held with oil company executives, the “public servants” in the Bush Administration refused to release the content of those discussions, citing “executive privilege.” These oil corporations pocketed an unprecedented 79% upsurge in profits since Mr. Bush took office in 2000. The biggest five alone have netted a record total of $254 billion in profits. One oily CEO got a $97 million pension, over and above his inflated pay and bonus plan.

We now export $700 billion a year in direct cash payments for foreign oil alone. Yet the 2005 Bush “Energy Plan” gives over $6 billion in “corporate welfare” to these wealthy major oil companies, allegedly to help them increase their oil refining capacity. However, these companies have recently confessed (after willfully closing a significant portion of their existing refineries over the previous ten years) that no amount of tax breaks and subsidies will induce them to build more refineries. While they closed plants that met environmental regulations, they now blame these same regulations for their lack of refining capacity. Internal memos have recently surfaced illustrating a premeditated tactic to deliberately reduce supply in order to seize a greater share of the average American’s disposable income.

Astonishingly, the chief executives of the five largest US oil giants would not submit to testimony under oath at a recent congressional hearing (a motion by Senator Cantwell to place them under oath was roundly seconded, but the Republican chairman then defiantly squelched this motion). Much of their ‘testimony’ was later described as false and misleading. Of course, Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney have long histories with the oil industry. Mr. Bush’s oil ties are well documented – as are his family’s decades-long ties to the Saudi royals. Enron’s Ken Lay was a top Bush campaign contributor. Mr. Cheney still receives “deferred compensation” from the oil services company he headed, a subsidiary of which, Kellogg Brown & Root (KBR), received vast un-bid contracts for base construction and supply in Iraq.

Keep in mind that oil doesn’t merely fuel our cars and SUVs – beyond its crucial role in food production from sowing and reaping to fertilizers and pesticides, manufacturing and distribution, and medicines, think of all those many things made of plastic in your house, car and business… and nobody is making any more oil.

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PhotobucketDavid Goldstein comments:

Sadly, recent surveys have shown that many auto consumers place Global Warming near the bottom of their concerns.

Yes, this appears to be true. I have to guess that this is caused by a combination of three factors:

1) The oil companies actually have been effective at casting doubt over the whole theory of Global Warming. Over time, I believe this will come to be regarded as one of the single most despicable acts ever perpetrated on Earth’s population, rivaling the tobacco companies’ lies about the health risks of smoking.

2) People resist change in any form at any time, and are not anxious to give up their habit of pumping gas into their cars.

3) Especially when they’re financial endangered, people are not likely to bear an expense that does not immediately and directly benefit themselves and only themselves.

So yes, I agree that rising gas prices will be the driver for the consumer demand part of the equation in EV migration.  And fortunately, that’s right around the corner.

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If you don’t mind, we could use your help. Please click the link if you’re willing to take part in a short (eight-question) survey. Click Here to take survey Thank you.

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PhotobucketEd Bowerman writes:

It is obvious that the purpose of these articles is to develop interest in investing. So, let’s hear about the investment.

You’re astute, Ed. As implied in the mission statement on the homepage, one of the key values that 2GreenEnergy proposes to bring to its readers is the “interpersonal connections” required for success in the renewables business. To that end, you’ll notice a new tab on the site: Investors. When the functionality is complete in the next day or so, this will become a place at which investors and opportunities can meet. I.e., those with solid business plans can present their offers to a database of serious investors: angels, VCs, hedge fund managers, etc.

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