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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Science

PhotobucketI asked global warming (GW) skeptic Jarrett Buys to explain the melting of the glaciers as evidenced by photos taken over the last century and the data behind ubiquitous graphs like this one. Excerpts from his response include:

Man just isn’t that causative!

Of course there is more melting of glaciers globally; we are at the end of the interglacial period, which always shows the most amount of glacial melt – it’s been melting for 10 thousand years! Also, the pattern shows we always have a slight warm spike at the end of the cycle, just before we plummet into the next glacial period, which might just account for the 1/2 degree f. Increase since 1988.

I can’t comment on this graph. I would imagine this is part of the ipcc’s climate modeling system based on their computer models that “prove” them right.

I realize critics of “the other side” (such as you mention in your blog) already have a “pat” answer for the explanations of such data being provided; however, that does not automatically mean the data is false, it just means that your side has a predetermined answer for all data that does not agree with your theory.

Thanks for this, Jarrett.

You bring up good points about the motive for junk science: both sides have something to gain by convincing lawmakers of the correctness of their positions. But personally, I find this irrelevant because, from my perspective, evaluating the correctness of the anthropogenic GW theory is impossible due to the enormous scale of time and the number of variables. I grant that it really IS possible that there actually isn’t a problem, or, if there is, that mankind has identically zero cause in it.

However, while I can’t prove the theory one way or the other, I think any fairminded individual would have to concede that it’s quite possibly true — due to the preponderance of top thinkers whose collective research reaches this identical conclusion. Btw, unlike you, I attribute to man more than enough cause to ruin this planet — in any of a dozen different ways. I guess my position is that there is a reasonable probability associated with anthropogenic GW, and that this alone is enough to militate action — especially when we need to get rid of fossil fuels for 3 – 4 other reasons that have nothing to do with GW at all.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

Photobucket“The good news is, you got an order from Costco,” my good friend John Tyson says, explaining the discussions he has with his clients.  “The bad news is, you got an order from Costco.”  He then elucidates, laying out the great many things that could qualify as “bad news” about receiving an order for millions of dollars worth of whatever it is the client happens to be selling: brutal negotiations, ridiculous delivery schedules, oppressive logistics, and, at the end of it all, the threat that, if you’re one iota off in any way, you’ll never get another chance. 

To be honest, I hadn’t thought too much about John’s big box retail consulting and finance company, Amerivon, in quite a while until just the other day.  I received an out-of-the-blue phone call from an old high school friend who wants my participation in his organization that will be producing extremely high-tech LED-based lighting products for both business and consumer markets.  One of the possible channels, it seems to me, is places like Costco, Home Depot, Walmart, etc. 

So I’m coming back up to speed on all the issues associated with these outlets, which are legendary for their strength in manipulating and ultimately crushing vendors.  I want to be able to tell my school chum, “Here’s the good news …. and, by the way, there is no bad news.”

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

I have to admit that I find myself in a quandary about products that are not strictly speaking environmentally sustainable but that offer considerable benefits compared to those that they would replace. Obviously, the world would be a cleaner place if we’d stop burning hydrocarbons, but the truth is we can’t – or we won’t – and thus it makes sense to understand the nature of certain compromises that are available.

Natural gas (vs. oil) is probably the most obvious example – and this topic has jumped into the news in a big way, with burgeoning supply brought about by breakthroughs in exploration technologies. Yet there are literally hundreds of others – and I enjoy reading the numerous business plans that I receive from companies wishing to go in these directions.

Here’s another good example: wood pellet stoves. Some consider this solution to be “CO2 neutral” (i.e., even though they do produce CO2 when burned, the material was once part of a tree that lived on CO2, so the two factors cancel each other out). This seems fallacious to me, since the tree (that otherwise would still be alive) was killed in the process of making the pellets. Having said that, this form of heat is obviously far cleaner than oil or coal. Here’s an excellent summary from GreenDaily.com.

I have to admit that I’ve been a heavy user of the standard wood burning fireplace. Sitting around the fire after dinner on a cold night, helping the kids with their homework — there are few things that I enjoy more. But I’m headed in the direction of wood pellets myself. While we’re running as fast as possible in the direction of solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and the like, it’s a trade-off I feel good about.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

PhotobucketI conducted my interview with ex-CIA director James Woolsey a few days ago, for the “national security” chapter of my book on renewables. I just posted a blog on RenewableEnergyWorld — getting into the subject of oilman psychology and cowboy philosophy — for anyone wishing to learn more about it.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

PhotobucketMerry Christmas everyone!

Had a great time at a friend’s “Stop By For a Glass of Chrismas Cheer” party last night; it was an opportunity to meet many wonderful people.  It’s always amusing to get people’s reactions when I’m asked what I do in life.  In almost all cases, people instantly relate to it, perhaps insofar as it touches almost everyone’s political beliefs: global warming is a leftist scam, it’s the apocalypse caused by unbridled capitalism and greed — and everything in between. “I’m just a reporter,” I assure them.

In any case, I was delighted that one guy said, “Oh I have to talk to you about investments.”  When I asked him what he meant, he explained that many people are shut out from investing in the migration to renewables, since so many cutting-edge clean energy companies are private.  I told him I would speak with some of my investment banker/broker-dealer friends about establishing a private placement memorandum to raise money for a group of carefully chosen private companies in need of capital across a range of relevant technologies. 

It’s amazing the ideas you come across with a cup of hot mulled wine in your hand.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

The only downside I see to spending a few minutes of my life every day writing a new blog post is the concern I have for “preaching to the choir.”  With few exceptions, it seems to me that the people at 2GreenEnergy, RenewableEnergyWorld, etc. are those who already have a thoughtful regard for our fellow citizens of earth; the real trick is to reach out to those who for whatever reason have not come across that realization.

For instance, here’s a comment I received on the blog I wrote on modern physics at Renewable Energy World.

Do the newly discovered hydrocarbon lakes on Titan offer the solution to peak oil? A simple 250 million mile pipeline with solar powered pumping stations and nuclear powered tankers for the tricky orbital parts. KBR-Halliburton is ready for the no-bid contract and Blackwater has enough weapons to defend it from alien attack.

Now that’s a level of writing, of humor, of insight, of sensitivity to the issues that is not common – to say the very least. That’s a guy who doesn’t need to be convinced that our world faces large challenges on both technological and political levels.

But what about the people we’re not reaching? I’m deeply concerned that our world is spiralling in a direction where fewer people each year read, immerse themselves in the facts on both sides of important debates, and challenge themselves to get on the right side of the issues that confront us. I’m hoping to forge 2GreenEnergy into a tiny part of a modern day Renaissance of thinking – a renewed flourishing of ideas that can make meaningful change in where we’re all going on environmental concerns.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

For some reason, I’m always somewhat surprised to read comments about conservation – they’re numerous, and they’re heartfelt. Frequent commentor Dan Conine writes:

The first alternative energy project that should always be funded is CONSERVATION. THEN whatever we do, won’t cost so much to implement. It is always easier to conserve first, so that we don’t have to make up lost ground for over-consumption in order to survive.

All this is perfectly true, of course. But I’m worried that we, as a race, simply don’t have the stomach for it.

I don’t claim to have a read on the consciousness of those outside the US — but I do think I understand Americans. I’m reminded of Jimmy Carter with his cardigan sweater, addressing a national audience on television in the late 1970s, asking us to turn our thermostats down. Let’s just say that this didn’t resonate.

A bit later he was voted out of office in a humiliating landslide, replaced by Ronald Reagan whose platform was essentially the opposite: America is tough. We don’t need sissy solar panels on the White House. Tear ‘em down. We’re strong, rogue wildcatters who drill for oil of which there is in infinite supply underneath our fruited plains which God Himself blesses. Reagan, you’ll recall, was one of the most popular presidents in history; we would have elected him king if we could have.

I’m afraid that this same mentality still lies at the core of the American psyche. Witness the backlash against the theory of global warming and the support for “drill-baby-drill,” nuclear energy, and the expansion of the war in the Middle East. We’re tough, we drill, and we fight.  We take no crap.  And regardless of how backward and insensitive our policies, God still smiles on us. 

And mostly, witness the fact that Americans do not support austerity in any form. We’ll run up our national debt exponentially, but we will absolutely not (neither Republicans nor Democrats) confront the financial pain that is inexorably headed our way.

Dan: Conservation may sound like a good idea to you and me, but I’m afraid it’s a non-starter on a national scale.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

PhotobucketThe blog I posted on Renewable Energy World yesterday on cold fusion has already gotten a few insightful comments. The common theme seems to be the sad fact that politics, rather science in its dispassionate purity, is the leading driver of the technology that we as a society ultimately adopt. As I’ve written abundantly elsewhere, I think the evidence for this is overwhelming — and I see no way around it today or anytime in the future.

To me, this suggests a “If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em” approach. I.e., if the good guys win, that is, if clean energy ultimately replaces fossil fuels while we still have a habitable planet on which to live, it will happen only because you and I told the story to enough people and developed a sufficient groundswell of opinion. Let’s never stop.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

PhotobucketMy blog at Renewable Energy World is, ironically, more visible that this one at my own site. Yet this is understandable; after all, they’ve been at it for 11 years, and boast the human bandwidth to cover the subject of clean energy at great depth. That is why, I think, my first post there created such a large influx of new readers back here – many of whom have existing or imminent businesses in the clean tech sector, and are looking for helping in establishing and expanding those businesses.

This has necessitated our expanding our range of thinking regarding the services that new clear energy business need. In particular, many of my recent conversations with entrepreneurs in this space concern breakthrough ideas that need to be developed. Typically, I’ve noticed that inventors have visions of owning billion-dollar manufacturing facilities on five continents – yet perhaps that’s not what’s best for them at all. Often, the best thing for a hot new idea is a buyer of that idea – or perhaps a licensee of that idea. Great inventors are not necessarily great manufacturers, marketers, or distributors.

To this end, we are in the process of building out our capability of helping entrpreneurs monetize their ideas – not by carrying them all the way to fruition, but my making solid, win-win deals with others who can do so for them. Soon, you’ll be seeing more 2GreenAssociates in business development, technology licensing, and mergers/acquisitions.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Wind Energy

I recently had the pleasure of speaking with Dr. Amir Mikhail, Senior Vice President of Engineering for Clipper Windpower, in an effort to develop my chapter on wind for my upcoming book on renewable energy.  This talk was full of interesting nuances about the physics and engineering aspects of cutting-edge the technology for extracting energy from the wind and converting it to mechanical – and ultimately to electrical energy.  And, as suggested by today’s photo, we began with some fascinating history on the subject.

But Dr. Mikhail raised a few basic points about the renewables industry in general that I thought I would share in this post:

The issue of energy storage is – for the US at this point at least – something of a red herring.  With 2% overall penetration of clean energy (across all forms of renewables) the fluctuation associated with the intensity of the wind – even locally — is of essentially no consequence to overall energy availability levels whatsoever.  Moreover, by the time the penetration rate increases to anywhere resembling that of Europe, we will have developed smart grid technologies that will enable far better real-time control of large sections of the grid.  E.g., if the wind is not blowing strong in area A, let’s see what it’s doing in area B, C, or D.

We also discussed the tough choices forced upon us a we migration  to renewables.  The wind industry takes seriously the issue of environmental damage associated with its farms, and conducts ongoing research to ensure that the size of turbine rotors and the hours of operation are creating a minimum of negative impact.  In the early days of commercial wind, the primary issue was large raptors; now, decades later, the focus is on bats, whose tiny lungs cannot handle the differential in air pressure around the turbines.  The industry also is making an effort to build farms in areas that already have a significant human footprint, recognizing the imperative to preserve the true wilderness wherever possible.

However, Dr. Mikhail points out that there are no existing clean energy technologies that come with zero environmental impact.  We do have to make choices, and each of these choices will represent some level of sacrifice.  “The people in a coal mining state back east were offered a choice of either putting wind turbines on a local mountain, or chopping off the top of the mountain, pulling the coal out of it, and burning it.  Craig, do you realize that they chose the latter?  There are choices.  We simply have to make the best ones.”

Again, Dr. Mikhail, thanks for the insights.

 

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