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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

Photobucket I’m honored to be a panelist at the AltCarExpo in Santa Monica, CA, October 2nd and 3rd.

This is a truly special event for several reasons, one of which is obvious: The world is running at top speed in the direction of alternative-fuelled transportation. The buzz in the electric vehicle world is so loud and so constant that it’s almost deafening. The migration to clean transportation is the most important trend in the international business world right now, and this is an opportunity to learn more, and to jump in with both feet.

The other is the uniqueness of Santa Monica itself – one of the most progressive municipalities on earth in terms of environmental responsibility. Attendees will have the opportunity to meet the city’s fleet superintendent Rick Sikes, whose passion for sustainability has driven him to create a vehicle array that is 87% alternatively fuelled.

It’s hard to find words to express how impressed I am with the dedication of Christine Dzilvelis and her incredible staff who have worked tirelessly to put this all together.

I hope that readers within a reasonable distance will attend. My group — the ELECTRIC VEHICLE INFRASTRUCTURE PANEL convenes at 3:30 Friday; please come and throw softballs at me — just kidding — feel free to pepper me with tough questions.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Science

PhotobucketSteele Braden responds:

I know this is hard for us guys schooled in the “old” physics thinking, but the longer I investigate and experiment, the more anomalies I turn up regarding accepted physics “laws.” Remember, it was impossible for man to fly with his own body power — until somome flew accross the English channel. Remember the sound “barrier”? Travelling to the moon was a permanent science fiction.

Great points, all. It’s funny; I had just written a piece advising the authors of business plans to “keep it real,” in which I explain: if you’re going to challenge conventional wisdom, do it convincingly.  I review submissions for what are essentially perpetual motion machines at the rate of about one per week. And by the way, I read each of them carefully and with no derision, because I’m sure that eventually, mankind will come to an understanding of the cosmos that will make all us 2009 people look quite foolish, as paradigmatic breakthroughs have been doing since the dawn of civilization. Having said that, understand that if your invention suggests 1 Watt in and 2 Watts out, you’re presenting this idea to people who have been taught since they were babies that you’re a liar or a fool.

I believe that many of the so-called laws will, in fact, be broken. Yet I have trouble believing that somewhere, right now, there is a machine that is running above 1.0 efficiency, based on a principle that no one can explain. Sorry to sound cynical, but I need to see it.

I’ll make you a deal: If you can give me clear reason for hope that I can see the first working model of such a device, I’ll take my wattmeter (to support my skepticism) and a bottle of really good champagne (to celebrate the gift to the world if I’m wrong) anywhere in the world for the demonstration.

Again, I hope we can keep the dialog open. I know that there are many people who are far more ardent scientists than I who will be thrilled to know that legimate science has broken yet another “law.” Please keep me informed.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Science

Steele Braden writes (and then followed up with an email):

Have any of you probed into the “Joe-cell” technology? Either this guy has produced somthing close to miracle technology, or he is an extremely clever hoaxer.

Steele, thanks for pinging me on this just now. Do you know, it’s funny, I’ve looked at your original comment several times but have never been able to make up my mind what to do with it. First, let me say that I am not an expert on the subject of wild, new ideas in science. As a garden-variety physics major of the 1970s, though, I’m more than conversant with the law of conservation of energy. Thus, I don’t see any sense in a claim that a certain technology “takes the energy out of water.” It takes WHAT energy out of water? If you had said, “We take the heat energy out of hot water, convert it to kinetic or electric energy, and leave you with cold water,” or “We take the potential energy of water in the mountains and leave you with water at sea level,” that would make sense. Or if you said, “We convert some of the mass from the elementary particles of which a water molecule is made into energy,” that would also make sense.

But there is no energy to be taken from the covalent bonds holding the atoms of a water molecule together, nor from the hydrogen bonds holding water molecules together. So, unless I’m missing something, this just seems to violate the most well-established laws of physics.

Having said that, I’d honestly love to discuss this with you. Please don’t hesitate to write or call. I’ll hope to hear from you. And, of course, I invite others to jump in here too.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

PhotobucketI was fortunate enough to have been invited to the Los Angeles premier screening of the movie “Crude” by filmmaker Joe Berlinger (pictured at left with Miss California) last night in Hollywood. It was a great honor being part of a cause so honest, and to be given the opportunity to meet people like Amazon Watch’s Atossa Soltani (below) – a fierce but kind fireball of passion and energy for the cause of the Ecuadorian people.

For those who may not know the story, Crude is a documentary – quite fair-minded in comparison to most – covering the history of one of the world’s most terrible tragedies – tragic mostly insofar as it did not have to happen. In brief, Texaco began its exploration for oil in Ecuador in 1964 and pursued that effort for decades, with processes so impure that they would have landed anyone associated with them in jail had they been performed in the US. The company knowingly ravaged the rainforest, and caused the sickness and death of tens of thousands innocent people living in the area. Now, Chevron, who acquired Texaco in 2001, is working hard to evade responsibility for the crimes of the company it owns. Those wishing to learn more can do so at Amazon Watch.

In any case, this film is truly a story of power, mystery, beauty, and evil – all presented in a straightforward manner that respects the intelligence of its audience.

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I won’t give away the ending – in fact, I couldn’t even if I wanted to. There is no reason to believe that this litigation will ever end, as Chevron continues to astound the world, finding inventive new ways to postpone justice and fairness. If you think I’m exaggerating, I urge you to consider the case of the Exxon Valdez. No one at ExxonMobil disputes sole resonsibility for the disaster, yet they were successful in delaying paying off the damages until just this year — more than 20 years after the incident (and at the last minute prevailed upon a judge to reduce those damages by 80%). To me, it’s hard to guess when we could reach a conclusion in the case of Chevron.

But speaking of conclusions, one that I personally find obvious is that white people have treated people of color very badly all around the globe for many hundreds of years. This fine film is a reminder that there is precious little evidence that this pathology has slowed – or that it ever will.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Fossil Fuels

PhotobucketI urge readers to read this interview on peak oil, published by my friend and colleague Bill Moore at EV World, featuring Robert Hirsch speaking on the deliberate avoidance by the U.S. government to talk about the subject. In my opinion, this is a subject that every American should understand. As with so many energy-related topics, peak oil (the concept that the world has passed the maximum point of refining petroleum — or even that such a point exists) is hotly debated. Yet it’s clear to most of us — and this interview certainly supports the claim — that anyone without a pro-oil business interest is on board with the idea that peak oil is a serious issue – perhaps ultimately the most serious threat to the future of mankind.

This phenomenon heightens the imperative for a concerted Kennedy-man-on-the-moon push from both the public and private sectors to make this happen. Even if peak oil were the only reason to move way from fossil fuels, which of course it is not, we need a top-down plan to capture, store, and distribute a minute fraction of the sun’s energy to a civilization that is growing more energy hungry by the day.

When you’re finished with the article, I hope you’ll read the comments; they’re incredibly astute, in my opinion. Some of them get into the philosophic stuff that I love to talk discuss, but am reluctant to initiate, for fear of taking us too far off-topic.  I’m always happy when I see people bringing up the larger concepts of social ideals.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

PhotobucketObviously, the gating factor to the electric transportation industry is battery technology. Yet costs are falling and energy density is increasing, and I think we all have the sense that the battery packs that we see in the EVs of today will look pretty ridiculous in a few years due to steady improvements in technology.

Making this whole area even more interesting are the battery management systems (BMS) that are required to control the charging and discharging of today’s cutting edge lithium ion batteries. The various lithium chemistries, e.g., lithium iron phosphate, offer a huge range of advantages over lead acid (small in size and weight, flat discharge curve, etc.) but are quite sensitive and often simply fail to perform in real-world applications. A state-of-the-art BMS, like the one offered by our client Lithium Balance, is really the only way to guarantee any degree of reliability from a lithium ion battery pack. 

I spoke with Lorne Hatchard of Los Angeles-based Li-ion battery supplier POWERFORCE just now, who explained that his company is attempting to develop its own BMS, and that its products are built at a variety of facilities in Asia, imported, and then triple-checked to ensure that they perform to their specifications.

Again, energy density (the amount of energy that can be stored per unit of volume or mass) is a central issue. And from what I’m reading, it looks like breakthroughs in lithium battery chemistry will continue for some period of time, since:

Lithium, the lightest of the metals, also has the highest standard potential of all the metals, at over 3 V — some of the lithium cell designs have a voltage of nearly 4 V.

Where, as a metal, lithium reacts violently with water, as well as with nitrogen in air, this is not the case with many lithium compounds – thus the name lithium ion.

Energy density and current-carrying capacity are functions of surface area, and, because lithium ions are no small, there are advanced ways of increasing surface area, versus simple flat plates. In particular, the battery terminals can be made from graphite (a layered crystal) into which certain lithium compounds are “intercalated.”  While I had POWERFORCE on the phone, I asked one of its engineers to explain this further.  He told me that this is based on the concept that small ions like lithium can fit in the spaces in a graphite crystal. Not only that, but these metallic atoms can go farther and force the graphitic planes apart to fit two, three, or more layers of metallic atoms between the carbon sheets. This is a great way this is to store lithium in a battery—the graphite is conductive, dilutes the lithium for safety, is reasonably cheap, and does not allow unwanted crystal structures to form.

Given the number of incredibly bright people who are working on this all over the world (many of them supported by enormous funding), it’s really no surprise we’re seeing a great deal of progress in this arena.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Photovoltaics

Dr. Kelly Truman was good enough to update me on what I have to call a textbook success of the business he started with his partner CEO Chris Gronot.  Solyndra, a venture-capitalized photo-voltaics company, is based in Fremont, CA — and seems to have done essentially everything right.  And that starts with the company’s proprietary PV technology, using cylindrically shaped elements coated with the semiconductor copper indium gallium (di)selenide (or CIGS), which is perfect for large, low-slope roofs, and is targeted mainly to commercial buildings.

There are several features of this technology and its implementation that have come together to form a highly differentiated product that is making a real name for itself around the world in a period of time that is, relative to other similar ventures, unbelievably short. First, because wind blowing through the elements tends to hold the installation on the roof (rather than blow it way) the system can be put in place very easily, quickly, and inexpensively with no penetration of the rooftop itself. Also, CIGS deployed in cylindrical elements results in 25% to 100% more power than conventional thin-film technology installed onto equivalent roofs.

As a business consultant, I’ve lived through dozens of stories of venture-capitalized start-ups, and I have to say that Kelly’s narration of the company’s history makes it sound – to me at least — like one of the smoothest in VC history. The company received its initial venture funding in 2005 and went about the business of building prototypes, working with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) which provided the equipment and technology for deposition. Soon the technology was demonstrated, the technical milestones were reached, beta customer feedback was positive – and actually serendipitously helpful; customers would often provide constructive input that none of the principles had thought of — e.g., “Do you realize that this could be used for — (some new application)?”

But the good news goes on: Solyndra took over a facility that Seagate (the hard disk-drive manufacturer) had abandoned when they took their operations overseas, and smoothly completed its third-party testing, validating not only the energy efficiency of its products, but also their seismic and wind readiness. By mid-2008 the first volume customer shipments were coming off the loading docks, and the company has grown in revenue in every subsequent quarter.

Looking for some plot twist or at least some conflict to make this story more interesting, I asked if investors getting antsy for a liquidity event, like an IPO on an acquisition by a publicly traded company. “No,” Kelly says, “They’re wonderfully patient. They know we’re in this to make a real difference against the reality of global warming, and that will require some time for growth. To give you an idea of their patience, we received a nine-figure from the DoE which required us to put up 27%. Even in this financial climate, our investors made sure this happened.”

Kelly Truman and I don’t know one another outside of this one-time encounter, and so I didn’t feel it was my place to ask anything else. When the interview was over, I politely thanked him and hung up. But I have to admit that I was wondering: Do his kids have naturally straight teeth? Are they headed for Ivy League colleges on full academic scholarships? I somehow feel that I want to hang out with Kelly, as he’s obviously doing a great number of things right.

I’m kidding here, of course. What I really mean is this: congratulations.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

PhotobucketSince we at 2GreenEnergy are about to begin interviewing a number of eminent climatologists re: global warming, let me go on record and predict what I believe we will find. I believe there is no way to be certain what elements of global climate change are manmade vs. naturally occurring, since there is no way to model the melting of the ice shelves of western Antarctica, etc.

In my mind, however, this doesn’t imply that there is no connection between human activity and global climate change, and certainly no way to justify continuing to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. In fact, I see the opposite imperative – taking all reasonable measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions. My friend Bruce Allen, author and speaker on a number of key environmental issues, points out that in a strange way, the global warming issue is moot, since regardless of the climate change issue, CO2 emissions are undeniably causing of the falling pH of the oceans, a phenomenon which itself is completely unacceptable to people who care about the sustainability of the planet.

If you haven’t listened to the talk that James Woolsey (Venture Partner, VantagePoint Venture Partner; Senior Executive Advisor, Booz Allen Hamilton; Former Director, United States Central Intelligence Agency) recently gave on the issue, I urge you to do so.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

Vinod KhoslaI’m in the process of putting the finishing touches on our new report providing business tips to renewable energy companies, one of which I call “Swing for the Fences.”

I note that marginal improvements in functionality, efficiency, etc. are generally not worth forming businesses around — that if you’re going to enter this industry, do something transformative. Though this could be debated in certain industries, where, for instance, reformulations in women’s perfume or soft drinks have the potential to represent big deals. But in renewable energy, the magnitude of the game you’re playing is enormous. To put it in perspective, when the world comes up with a way to capture only 1/6000th of the sun’s power, the energy game will have been won (by the good guys) — now and forever.

In the words of legendary venture capitalist Vinod Khosla, who, of course, knows more than a little about the cleantech sector, “Since one fails often, address markets that make it worthwhile when one does succeed.”

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Science

PhotobucketI’m thrilled to report that I have an interview scheduled with one of the most eminent climatologists on our planet: Veerabhadran Ramanathan at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego. I’ll be driving down later this month for a meeting that I’m sure will be among the most memorable moments in my life.

For four decades, Dr. Ramanathan has led innovative research projects involving global climate dynamics, air pollution, and climate mitigation. From a brief summary of his work, it is clear that Ramanathan was among the very first to prove the greenhouse effect of CFCs and numerous other man-made gases, correctly forecasting in 1980 that the global warming due to carbon dioxide would be detectable by the year 2000.

Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be doing a great deal of reading to prepare me for this interview, and I look forward to publishing a report on the results.

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