Trend Toward Energy Efficiency and Conservation
Senior energy analyst and frequent 2GreenEnergy commenter Glenn Doty wrote something the other day that I find interesting:
….The thing is, our end-use electric consumption is likely never going to decrease. We’ve more or less stopped the rapid increase in our nation’s energy consumption through improvements in efficiency, but every time someone better insulates their house, or switches from incandescent light bulbs to CFL’s (or still rarely LED’s), someone else upgrades their TV to a 90″ plasma monster TV, or just moves to a McMansion. Homes are getting bigger, TV’s are getting bigger. Stereos are getting louder with purer sound, and the population is still growing. Eventually, the low-hanging fruit gains from switching light bulbs and better insulation will be exhausted, and the electricity demand will grow.
I wonder if all this is true. I suppose it’s bound to be correct in the developing world, where huge Asian populations are moving to the cities and starting to live more like Westerners. And if that’s the case, perhaps it doesn’t matter too much what happens in the developed world. But I see a real trend away from McMansions here in the U.S.; I simply don’t think that big is “in” anymore. I see what is construed to be “luxury” real estate sitting on the market for years on end, with asking prices that have not rebounded a nickel from the abyss into which they fell in 2008 — maybe even falling a bit further.
Obviously, there are several issues at play here. No one, whether they’re filthy rich or struggling, likes a “money pit.” Of course, that has always been true, but I think the concern is more pronounced now than it ever was before. My wife and I got out of the horse breeding business a few years ago, and I feel like the weight of the world is off my shoulders. No more irrigating pastures and lawns, fixing broken fences, $1200/month electric bills, tractor repairs, etc. When I walk by the property we sold I wonder what I could have possibly been thinking that attracted me to something so burdensome.
Then, of course, you have the issue of environmentalism. More people every day are waking up to the fact that watering a huge lawn in the Southern California semi-desert is obscene, just like driving a 6600-pound SUV or heating their swimming pool in March.
Glenn’s not wrong often, but I’m hoping that he is here, and that we have a long-term trend that spreads around the globe.
Craig,
I don’t think I’ll be wrong here this time as well. What I was trying to explain is that while you and your wife sold the old horse breeding business and no longer have to contend with all of that demand, someone else just bought the old horse breeding business and is now contending with a huge demand…. While you and your wife now have much less power utilization, someone else has a monster power bill.
We’re still gaining people, and those people are living in bigger homes.
An easy way to see both the promise and the limitation of energy efficiency is by charting the numbers (I’ll also include “fossil generation” to help give an impression of how the renewable energy developments are impacting the market).
Year: U.S. population: U.S. electricity generation: U.S. fossil generation
1997 272.65 million 3.492 PWh 2.430 PWh
1998 275.85 million 3.620 PWh 2.547 PWh
1999 279.04 million 3.695 PWh 2.569 PWh
2000 282.16 million 3.802 PWh 2.692 PWh
2001 284.97 million 3.737 PWh 2.677 PWh
2002 287.63 million 3.858 PWh 2.730 PWh
2003 290.11 million 3.883 PWh 2.759 PWh
2004 292.81 million 3.971 PWh 2.825 PWh
2005 295.52 million 4.055 PWh 2.910 PWh
2006 298.38 million 4.065 PWh 2.885 PWh
2007 301.23 million 4.156 PWh 2.992 PWh
2008 304.09 million 4.119 PWh 2.927 PWh
2009 306.77 million 3.950 Pwh 2.726 PWh
2010 309.35 million 4.125 PWh 2.883 PWh
2011 311.59 million 4.100 PWh 2.789 PWh
2012 313.91 million 4.048 PWh 2.775 PWh
2013 316.16 million 4.058 PWh 2.739 PWh
As you can see, the 10-year period from 1997 to 2007 (when we passed the Energy Independence and Security Act) saw a total population growth of 10.5%, and a total energy consumption growth of 19%. Obviously, the recession had a tremendous immediate effect on consumption – which should be ignored – but since 2007, we’ve seen 5.0% increase in population, and a 2.4% drop in total electricity generation. Clearly the emphasis on greater efficiency – from a combination of light bulb switching due to the 2007 EISA and the funding for insulation upgrades in the 2009 ARRA – has improved things quite a bit… but already we saw a slight uptick in electricity demand from 2012 to 2013, even though the 2013 summer was far more mild than the record-shattering 2012 summer.
In the end, there’s a limit to how much more efficient we can make our lives, in the midst of increasing population and improving comfort.