Paradigms in Energy Research Can Act As Blinders

In response to my posting my friend Tom Blakeslee’s piece on the developments in low-energy nuclear reactors coming out of Italy, frequent commenter Dan Conine writes:

The problem with Cold Fusion is not the energy, nor the impossibility of it, but that in order to acknowledge it, someone has to admit that what they thought they knew is not what ‘is’. Beliefs are tough to shed.

Funny you mention that. When I was out at Tom’s place last week, this is exactly what he told me. And he’s right, of course. The reason paradigms stay in place and blind us in our research is that we feel much better confirming rather than disconfirming what we believe.

This, btw, is an important theme in Nassim Taleb’s masterpiece The Black Swan – The Impact of the Highly Improbable, which I strongly recommend.