Please scroll to the very bottom to enter a sentence or two (more if you like) that summarizes your vision of the most likely to happen in the next five years.
If there had been qualifiers on some of those questions like “except in the U.S” or “only in the U.S.” you would have gotten more “I agree” or “I disagree” votes out of me instead of the less commital votes.
I think that due to limitations in oil production and increasingly expensive production techniques, the economy will cycle between anemic growth followed by high oil prices which will stifle growth and perhaps/probably cause recessions.
If the Presidency goes to the GOP, I think the recessions will become worse than they otherwise would be, but neither party will be able to stimulate “growth” as we have known it in the past.
If the european financial woes become severe, this will trigger a world financial meltdown similar to 07-08, and there is significant chance of a black swan event in the financial markets (mainly derivatives) since no meaningful regulations have been put in place to prevent it.
Under the GOP, there will be less incentive for efficiency and alternatives, and this will lead to less resilience in our economy.
Battery technology will continue to improve, but at disappointing rates, although perhaps by ’17 it may be just sufficient to win almost mainstream acceptance of EV’s of various sorts.
Under either party there will be no response to climate change, except to try and endure the increasing rate of natural disasters, and perhaps one of them will overwhelm our response capability similar to the Katrina response.
After about 8 years, we will decide that it would have been nice to have more electrified transport, but there will be no money available to do it.
I believe that the ignorance and intransigence of American voters and the idiots we put in office will make it impossible to mount any serious efforts to deal with limiting the use of fossil fuels and dealing with other looming problems like a warming planet, greater pollution, and coming shortages in global supplies of food, water and medical care. I don’t see good times ahead in the next five years. Asba people, we deal only with short term, ineffevtive solutions to long term problems.
Within the decade, the Middle East OPEC countries (with their abundant solar resources) will implement and prove out disruptive renewables based, 24/7 electric generation technologies, that will jolt the conventional US fossil based electric production model. The Middel East countries (in concert with the Chinese, Japanese and Indians) will soon thereafter start exporting affordable non-fossil, off-the shelf, renewables based electric power technologies for off grid use by individual homes, and thus strand US existing utility companies!! The handwriting is on the wall!!
There will be great advances in battery/condenser electricity storage to make solar more practical and allow the better use of the grid. As well electric transport will take over-perhaps with hydrogen producing electric for long ranges.
Solar will become more affordable so that individuals may produce and store their energy needs.Go tech go.
I have already seen some pretty significant (about double the kw/hr) battery improvements in technical papers so I see that as being soon to come but other than the increase in battery life and cheaper solar panels, I don’t really see any near future improvements going green globally.
Although, I don’t consider nuclear power to be the root of all evil, I just feel it needs to be handled more like the military handles nuclear power and less like politicians handle nuclear power. It is dangerous to the extreme, but it has the ability to work, and work well, in places where most other sources of power won’t due to environmental issues.
I also think that large scale solar farms, around ranches or in cities should be built to help reduce the burden on existing power production. If you replaced every rooftop in suburbia with solar panels you could produce all of the power needed by the cities they surround. But, the problem then becomes where do you store the power?
That, in a nutshell, is the biggest problem with solar and wind power. How do you store what you have produced. You can only transfer power around so long before you finally need to store it. Especially in any country that doesn’t cover 11 time zones, which would be all of them with the collapse of the USSR several years ago. I don’t see giant buildings filled with batteries, or basements filled with batteries, as being any safer than nuclear reactors.
There will not be enough money or technology for there to be huge change in the next 5 years. Change is happening but it will be much slower than many wish or believe. Being overly optimistic risks additional failures similar to Solyndra that result in scandal and may cause the loss of legitimacy to green efforts. A realistic, phased approach in many areas is what has the best chance of success. Pushing too hard to shut down things like coal too soon without a rational transition could drive costs of energy for individuals and industry out of sight. This would have dire effects on the already weak economy and drive higher unemployment and poverty. If successful, progress will be slower than many want but it can be achieved if people and leaders are patient, rational and determined. The alternative is a bigger mess, no progress and more polarized factions spending all of their effort drawing battle lines and assigning blame instead of getting things done.
Oil, coal, and gas will steadily become more expensive at a mean rate of ~20%/year. EVs will have negligible impact on oil usage – for decades.
Global economic growth will still continue at a rate of ~2%/yr, and inflation in the U.S. will remain low.
The gap between the rich and the poor will continue to widen. It will take 10-12 more years of this before something close to revolution (major rioting) comes to the U.S. We will not see another period of sustained strong growth in the U.S. until several years after that happens.
We will not see serious and effective commitment to reduced CO2 emissions until after we’ve seen several years of strong economic growth.
Without a social revolution of some considerable scale, the planetary ecological destruction will continue and it will be realized that we have reached certain global warming tipping points and that without a world-wide urgent effort, our species is on track for extinction. Without action, within 5 years, we will be able to predict our fate. With serious urgent action at war-time speed across the planet with youth and elders alike working on assembly lines to meet our survival needs, we would have a chance at survival with no guarantee. We are in trouble folks. We must wake up quickly. The history of our future must be made NOW. We can’t be bothered with political elections and pondering what will happen in the next election. We need decisions now, made by people willing to sacrifice their elected position on behalf of the citizens they serve, however unlikely this scenario may come into play.
I think it will take more than five years for people in the U.S. to see the error of their ways. I think methane-powered fuel cells will be the battery choice of the future because (a) we need to use methane to avoid getting it into the atmosphere and (b) the technology of fuel cells has shown good promise for powering everything that needs power. It can be scaled up, and it can be scaled down. Another choice would be used oil in diesel engines. If we put the right types of materials into the plastics in vehicles, they can use the oil without any further modification…they don’t need only diesel! In fact, the first diesel engine burned peanut oil. There’s a lot more we can do but that’s enough for now I guess.
Since the climate has been “squealing” for several years already, an abrupt warming is imminent, very likely within the next five years. While this will cause catastrophic droughts and floods in the U.S. Leadership will do nothing while saying all the right words. Both parties are elitist and consequently don’t think systems. They imagine that they will mechanistically “control” what’s about to happen; more to the point, that they will remain in control of society. They regard the greater population of Americans as expendable. All of this will take place in the context of a deep depression in the developed countries because the financial elites will continue to consolidate wealth rather than invest in a sustainable economic system. I could go on but it just gets blacker.
There is far too much infrastructure that depends on cheap fossil energy and that great effort will be given towards maintaining the status quo. This means that the outlying regions and members in the lower economic circles will be increasingly abandoned, while wealth and power attempt to protect their own intrests.
I suspect that demand destruction will act against investment in needed infrastructure, which will lead to wild oscillations in fossil energy prices and supply.
Leadership is needed to guide civilization to a new future and I do not see that happening much anywhere as of yet.
“…convincing even the global climate change deniers/skeptics that the theory is essentially correct…” Only when big oil manuvers themselves into equivalent monopoly (and profitability) positions with renewables will we find their resistance to renewables changing to some shade of enthusiasm. And of course it is they who are behind the so called climate deniers. Cheap storage will be one of the most disruptive technologies in this regard. We have come to think that 2-3% growth every quarter is normal, but how can this be sustainable indefinately? Kindness does exist in the world however, and the power of love is ultimately stronger than the dark side.
A flaw in your very pertinent questions was that you failed to include timeframes as some had a positve and negative answer over short and long term. The questions also should have had a gloobal aspect. Increasingly the USA is having a less dominant impact on global economies. 20 years ago the USA comprised 50% of the GDP of the top 10 countries. Now the USA comprises only 33% of the GDP of the top 10. (Please exclude the EU as a single unit. The USA needs to look over the fence more often. It only shows that growth and environmental issues are arising in less focused upon economies.
We are headed to environmental disasters in the next few years that will force most people to make changes. Changes in their lives that they hope will save them from the worst affects of climate change. After Pearl Harbor, the American people did an about face in a very short period of time. We can and must do it again.
We will bumble along with too many people on the planet and temporarily save ourselves when we unlock new energy sources as yet just a dream. But the dream will be short-lived if we do not address overpopulation and the consequent food and water shortages that will simply not go away with 7 billion mouths to feed. Unpalatable as it may seem, we have to start reducing our numbers through education and a responsible attitude to the breeding cycle of ‘homo erectus’. A solution to our energy needs is not a solution at all. When we get past 10 billion of us it will be game over anyway. And that assumes we don’t destroy the habitat to the extent that even the bees disappear in the meantime. We are so stuck in the ‘more energy’ mode, that we fail to see that we are breeding ourselves into oblivion.
Within two to five years, home owners should be able to walk into local hardware stores like Home Depot and purchase modular solar panels with micro converters which can be installed by local electricians in less than half a day. Solar energy installation cost can be recovered in less than 5-7 years.
This is true today. Check out Westinghouse’s kits at Lowes that can be installed in less than one-half day. See the “Become a Dealer” video on theit website – “one-half hour to install a 2kW system”.
I believe that global warming and climate change is real and therefore, new energy technologies and their research would continue to gain momentum in 5-10 year and then 10-20 years in multiple stages, in spite of global energy, food and water crisis caused perhaps partly by climate change and over growing population. These stages would see global energy situation improving in all countries. However it could be a very hard road ahead. Efficient solar energy collectors and storage would be ideal solutions in the next 5-10 years. Energy, Food and water crisis, if not addressed and addressed soon, would put us in a very precarious situation in the future.
Solar will drop below $0.04/kWh within 5 years and below $0.03/kWh within 10 years. Electric busses will prove out Qualcomm’s wireless charging and induction rails will be added to the carpool lanes in San Diego and L.A.
My view is less apocolyptic than some expressed here, but I do think there will be more wars about energy, however the US seems to have discovered many more energy resources (Gas) and so I think the problems will be elsewhere.
Because of %70 of world reseve of Boron is in Turkey ,Boron will be used as storage of renewable energy beside of ammonia. There will be cascade system for long term energy storage middle and short term storage will be possible by using batteries
I’m not American however I believe the US public are about to have a major wake up call regarding a number of US policies, both domestic and foreign, particularly when it comes to energy. Being a world super power only to back out of or simply ignore international needs regarding energy, is simply a double standard. The US administration has and continues to betray the American people with its lack of foresight and responsibility regarding is approach to sustainability. In short, your survey by definition is the tip of the ice berg. The US is like a parent that says to their children, “do as I say not as I do”
When the human race can finally agree that it’s not clever to s**t in your backyard,then maybe some kind of new dawn of understanding will revolutionize societies need for oil based products.With the population of he planet ever expanding, it’s increasingly harder to feed its greed for the planets mineral wealth.
While I understand the concerns and agree on some, I am much more optimistic that renewables are reaching a tipping point on purely economic terms. We are in the early days still, and there is a lot of room to improve costs to the point where people widely adopt renewable energy and move toward more electric driven cars and the like.
The US has a chance to be one of the leaders in the green energy sector – but only if we stop making it about climate change or being green. For most people, paying less to drive your car and run your home / business will be the main drivers. Being less dependant upon oil will have the added benefit of allowing us to drop our huge military spending. That is money that can be put to much better use.
within your five year perspective I wouldn’t expect more than business as usual. In the US, the drag on political, economic and technical change from anti-science, evangelical movements and big business interests will continue to constrain essential moves to a more sustainable (survivable?) future. Structural and economic implosion in Europe will have shock waves lasting longer than 5years, inhibiting the generally positive actions started there. the Middle East will continue to be volatile, unpredictable and introspective, where concern for Climate stability will come low on their list of priorities. Let’s hope China, without the time constraint of achieving a democratic consensus, gets the message, sees the economic benefits of global domination in ‘green’ technologies, and cleans up its industrial legacy.
There will be a massive earth quake resulting to some of the cavities created through mining and drilling in parts of the world to collapse causing a very big hollow that will swallow vast area of civilization.
I’m not sure how important oil will be in the future. I wish I knew more, but surely the major growth areas in the global economy are less oil-dependant then the US, or?
I’d bet my money for a continued surge of solar energy (PV, CSP, solar heating), making electricity a cheaper and cleaner option for more and more appications. The challenge for the power sector will be to transform from a producer of kilowatthours, to a supplier of kilowatts when they are needed for balancing supply of intermittent sources and hopefully a more flexible demand side. Concepts such as energy storage, improved transmission capacity and DSM will be crucial.
Calderon technology will begin producing energy for both transportation and electricity.
Communities will look within at their resources to produce energy for transportation and electricity – The three rules for production of sustainable energy is develop locally,produce locally and consume locally.
Rural communities will become grid neutral by turning to local resources and solar-hydrogen-fuel cells.
We like to call it holistic sustainable energy systems.
Thomas Edison’s vision was local, local, local.
With Respect to Russ, Thomas A Edison was an idea thief who believed in local, local, local (to borrow your phrase) because DC electricity doesn’t travel long ranges to save your life. We are fortunate, indeed, that Tesla’s vision of electric power transmission and generation won out over Edison’s or you would have little Natural gas power plants every few blocks and in every large building.
As for the other, solar/hydrogen fuel cells will only work when it takes less energy to generate the hydrogen than you get by using it. But, at least you recognize a problem many people haven’t even addressed. How do you store your electric power? I did a little research online tonight and it looks like you would need a bank of about 18-24 12v batteries in your house to store the energy necessary to carry you through the night when solar power isn’t available. Especially if you expect to charge your electric car overnight in your garage. So I guess the modern house of the future comes equipped with a battery room that is equipped with negative ventilation to ensure that no toxic or explosive gasses are released while the batteries cycle.
5 years is not much of time for big changes.
Solar PV will improve and be competitive is some place with high electricity prices and lost of sunshine, but not everywhere in 5 years time.
Also battery improvements will be made, but they will not yet be competitive in 5 years time. We need batteries to last at least 10 years (3500 cycles) and be cheap enough (compared to other car fuels) to make EV’s attractive. We could then see a family with 2 cars having 1 EV and 1 fossil fuel car. The EV will be driven most of the time and make the most yearly distance, but the fossil one will be used for the long distance trips.
Nuclear is to pricey in the western world and is not competitive against gas or coal. Even wind is cheaper on a price/kWh base. Only developing countries like China, India, Russia, Korea and the Middle East will install nuclear. I suspect they are less regulated and therefore cheaper. In the US and UK, nuclear has financing problems.
The oil price can not go up anymore unless people use oil more efficiently. If the average car does 50 miles/gallon (4l/100km) we can pay oil at 200$.
Follow the Andrea Rossi low energy nuclear device. It should be available within a year. The initial device will be for heating(10KW)only with a fuel cost of less than $40/year plus cost of 1.67KW electricity from local power company.
This will be followed by electric power generation along with heating resulting in approximately 3KW electric and 7KW heat per unit.
Investment cost for initial (boiler-heater) is estimated to be under $1,000 for 10KW.
Crisis here in Europe creates opportunity. A destroyed Europe impossibly burdened with debt was revived after 1945 by the U.S. vision of a brighter future – known as the Marshall Plan. By creating long-term guaranteed demand, the Marshall Plan gave Europeans the confidence to rebuild. Germans call what followed ‘the economic miracle’.
Now Europe needs to coordinate and deliver its own Marshall Plan – The prize is not just revitalised economies and the rapid adoption of disruptive innovations. It is also energy security, clean energy and the efficiencies and savings that a single European electricity grid can deliver.
Though it is most desirable that green energy gets prominence in the next five years, the track record so far does not give any optomistic out look across the world…mainly due to self centered lobby’s that rule the nations!..otherwise we would have seen the greener world by now…talks are loud but actions are slow!…be that as it may I am still an optimist and look forward to greater use of green energy in the next five years!
5 years isn’t much time, and I saw no mention of natural gas as the “next” best substitute for electric power plants. In the U.S. the head-in-the-sand climate change nay-sayers will continue to enjoy support from too many tea party extremists (and the all-powerful oil lobby). It will take many more than 5 years to fix what’s wrong with congress.
Five years is a short horizon. Longer term, hyrogen is the fuel of the future. It will be a commodity the existing energy companies can produce, market and sell. We will not see it, however, until these existing companies can extract as much fossil-fuel based energy as they reasonably can and market within the existing infrastrucutre.
Solar, wind, tidal, etc. could possibly become competitive with other energy sources but they have no financial backing from the existing energy companies. I believe a major reason why there is no financial support is that these alternative energy sources involve only an initial capital investment profit with limited O&M revenue down the line. There are no profits to be made on fuel commodity unless these companies can find a way to monopolize the sun, wind and oceans.
As history has taught us we should enter into inflationary times sooner than later, which will stall the clean-tech industry even more. What little investment dollars are available now will move to more secure higher return securities. Longer range outlook (10 to 15yrs), I feel we have a better chance of moving things like waste to energy and cost effective alternative fuels and yes even the battery will become mainstream.
I see the states continuing to take the steps to promote clean energy with the lack of Federal guidance. The electric vehicle will not be a major player in the transportation arena for many more years. Goods transport will continue to become more dominated with natural gas vehicles.
Hopefully the Feds will get there act together to a point that the electric grid will get enough direction so that the pieces will fit together in some manner.
In brief, we will continue to muddle through for the next decade before any federal plan will emerge.
The biggest impact to date has been in the form of fuel switching – coal to natural gas. The only downside of this trend (cheap NG)has been that it has greatly hindered new (but more expensive) green power technologies. Given the ineptitude of the Federal Mess, the US will have to look at more populated, progressive States for our continued ad-hoc energy policy. Sad but true. The energy incumbents (Oil Co, & most others) will benefit and do very little unless they are forced to…………….Is this the best we can do?
It seems that new oil costs $105-$110 per barrel to develop. The world economy uses less oil above $104. Oil has now dropped to $90 and excess refineries are shutting down. There is only a true gamblers incentive to dig for more oil.
Solar and wind plants already are cheaper than new coal plants. Solar and Wind and geothermal plants have to be payed for every thirty years where coal and oil have to be payed for at fluctuating prices continuously. Coal is already being competitively priced out of business.
Continual advances and cost reductions in solar, wind, geothermal, battery and hydrogen technology will continue to erode fossil energy use.
The big push is the automakers drive for hydrogen fuel cell cars 2013-2016. Even improved batteries take too long to charge and the car companies want to sell fast filling, long range, pollution free cars. After all they are in the car business and want to sell cars.
The future is actually bright as fossil is depleting and fading away and the alternatives are growing and getting less expensive. A solar hydrogen economy is the end game and the world will be well on its way by 2035.
Economics (including short sighted self interest and greed) will continue to trump Science, technology, the environment and any sense of needing to do the right thing until enough shocks are felt by the world that we change our ways… for a time. This is the lesson of history and what we will see in the near term going forward with isolated pockets of a different attitude. The counter to this: Leadership is not evident as economic interests also see leadership as a populist phenomena working against economic goals.
Near term is hybrid drive systems with gasoline or diesel engines, transitioning to Compressed Natural Gas hybrids and increasing all electric ranges as battery technology advances.
Push for all domestic fuel sources over imports oil will stabilize economy and enable us to be a net exporter of goods.
Based on my thirty years in the energy business, the “innovation” we might see (i.e., that will register in the professional or public consciousness) in the next five years might include evolutionary improvements in gas turbine/generators and wind turbine/generators, and perhaps minor gains from some of the smart grid deployments in the way of efficiency and demand management based on price signals. But that’s about it. The business models for the electricity industry do not reward innovation and the business models for the energy industries as a whole reward economic productivity on extraction and delivery. And since financial speculation has been injected on top of energy commodities, price volatility prevents everyone from serious long-term planning around new, more environmentally sound objectives.
Whether one calls it peak oil or not, oil will continue to be more expensive year over year – no going backwards. Like a leaky faucet, this continuous increase in the extraction of what would otherwise be discretionary capital will make the other important issues of the day even more financially difficult.
Energy policy will likely muddle along in Obama 2nd term, and after that we will see a republican administration do even less. There will be no help coming from the regulatory side of the house.
Not even the best climatologists have a sense of when and how much a ‘tipping point’ might be. If one occurs in a manner that is generally apparent, it will be an all bets off scenario.
Humans have extremely short term memory – witness current USA politics. It is likely we will forget the lessons of Fukushima, et al. That, plus newer technologies, plus the extreme pressure for non-fossil fuel sources, might push us back into the nuclear option.
Utility scale energy storage will be a serious game changer, but again, it is nearly impossible to predict when those technologies will be recognized and adopted.
If there is a change in the administration and that new administration starts reducing the size and scope of government we will see an increase in renewable energy development just because the cost and depth of regulation may change for the better.
Right now its hard to justify investment when the cost of permitting and licensing a project takes so long and requires so much money. If the service agencies are taken down a notch and reduce their demands for mitigation we will see the increase in development.
An example is licensing an existing dam for hydro; the cost of integrating requirements demanded by US Fish and Wildlife Service, Army Corp, NOAA etc is killing projects that otherwise could increase firm base energy, provide storage and reduce the need for transmission build out. I don’t think a conservative administration will change clean air and water regulation but rather reduce the red tape.
Global recesion is when the majority of people who work, can’t make an income. We are close. Energy is key, in a sane scenario. But, I fear world leaders will choose war as an easy way to recover, plus print lots of money and get rid of a few unemployed. The changes in our future is tied to Thorium based power plants, wind, photovoltaics and kinetics,
While aome significant events that affect energy can happen in the next 5 years, the responsive substantative change in the energy infrastructures and institutions is likely to take much longer. There is so much uncertainty in energy that scenario planning might perhaps be the better approach, rather than deterministic forecasting.
I believe that solar will prosper in spite of incoming tide. Cannot stop the attractiveness of having one’s own power source on your own property. Gives one a sense of satisfaction in doing something that is good for all.
Forrest Gump said, “Stupid is as stupid does” Fiat currency will destroy America soon. Riot and socialism will lead to civilization collapsing. Solar and batteries will be our power supplies. Change without hope is coming as the one world progressives seek to destroy all.
Hopefully, We will increase the viability of batteries, and thier cost will become affordable……There must be a realization that we need to be more independently sustainable……
As an owner of an electric vehicle, I have found that the vehicle serves 95% of my needs and costs 1/10th of what it was costing me in fuel and maintenance. Unfortunately adoption of EVs in the U.S. will be slow even if the gas prices steadily rise. People in this country ignore a problem and hope that it just goes away. The average person doesn’t want to know how much of their income is “burned” up on gas! The problem isn’t a “technical” one! It is a “mindset”!
There will a slow but growing trend toward use of alternate energy – wind, solar, natural gas – but no major revoltions. Electric drives will become more popular in transportation – both commercial and personal with the major growth in the plug-in hybrid area. Unfortunately, nuclear will decline until someone clearly defines its benefits with reasonable control of safety and waste and the public understands its potential to solve both eviromental and sustainable energy issues. Evolution but not revolution with a gglobal flavor – hopefully with USA playing a major technological role but probably with the social and economic push coming from abroad.
Energy and Clean Water are the two critical factors or environmental issue for the short and mid-term.
The political instability, and difficulty in predicting what will happen in the middle east surely do not bode well for a consistent supply of oil which will put pressure on increasing our domestic supply perhaps tapping our Strategic Oil Reserves, more exploration offshore which is dangerous,
and further support energy alternatives and importantly, I believe that energy efficiency will rise in importance.
I believe that we will see PV and Wind grow, but unsteadily due to continued short term incentive and policy changes. Electric cars will slowly gain market share, but if gas prices drop much more it will definitely slow that down. If western countries abandon Nuclear as Germany, Japan, and Italy have so far, then we will see all the gains from the expansion in renewables wiped out, as they have yet to achieve large scale in most of these countries, and Germany is starting to hit the operating limits of wind and solar without massive upgrades to the grid and added storage capacity. Im afraid that is likely, due to the common irrational fear of radiation, as in Scott Browns comment. The particulate pollution coming over from China is far more of a hazard than the infinitessimal amount of radiation reaching our shores.
1. Major rioting in the streets of 5 or more major cities in the U.S.
2. Rampant inflation in the western world
3. Major advances in rechargable battery technology
4. Major loss of individual freedom coupled with a takeover by a “benign” dictator.
Other than that, life goes on, the population increases and politicians pretend that all is well on planet earth.
If there had been qualifiers on some of those questions like “except in the U.S” or “only in the U.S.” you would have gotten more “I agree” or “I disagree” votes out of me instead of the less commital votes.
I also think a other category would be a good addition to your surveys some are like choosing between hanging or the electric chair.
I think that due to limitations in oil production and increasingly expensive production techniques, the economy will cycle between anemic growth followed by high oil prices which will stifle growth and perhaps/probably cause recessions.
If the Presidency goes to the GOP, I think the recessions will become worse than they otherwise would be, but neither party will be able to stimulate “growth” as we have known it in the past.
If the european financial woes become severe, this will trigger a world financial meltdown similar to 07-08, and there is significant chance of a black swan event in the financial markets (mainly derivatives) since no meaningful regulations have been put in place to prevent it.
Under the GOP, there will be less incentive for efficiency and alternatives, and this will lead to less resilience in our economy.
Battery technology will continue to improve, but at disappointing rates, although perhaps by ’17 it may be just sufficient to win almost mainstream acceptance of EV’s of various sorts.
Under either party there will be no response to climate change, except to try and endure the increasing rate of natural disasters, and perhaps one of them will overwhelm our response capability similar to the Katrina response.
After about 8 years, we will decide that it would have been nice to have more electrified transport, but there will be no money available to do it.
I believe that the ignorance and intransigence of American voters and the idiots we put in office will make it impossible to mount any serious efforts to deal with limiting the use of fossil fuels and dealing with other looming problems like a warming planet, greater pollution, and coming shortages in global supplies of food, water and medical care. I don’t see good times ahead in the next five years. Asba people, we deal only with short term, ineffevtive solutions to long term problems.
Within the decade, the Middle East OPEC countries (with their abundant solar resources) will implement and prove out disruptive renewables based, 24/7 electric generation technologies, that will jolt the conventional US fossil based electric production model. The Middel East countries (in concert with the Chinese, Japanese and Indians) will soon thereafter start exporting affordable non-fossil, off-the shelf, renewables based electric power technologies for off grid use by individual homes, and thus strand US existing utility companies!! The handwriting is on the wall!!
There will be great advances in battery/condenser electricity storage to make solar more practical and allow the better use of the grid. As well electric transport will take over-perhaps with hydrogen producing electric for long ranges.
Solar will become more affordable so that individuals may produce and store their energy needs.Go tech go.
I have already seen some pretty significant (about double the kw/hr) battery improvements in technical papers so I see that as being soon to come but other than the increase in battery life and cheaper solar panels, I don’t really see any near future improvements going green globally.
Although, I don’t consider nuclear power to be the root of all evil, I just feel it needs to be handled more like the military handles nuclear power and less like politicians handle nuclear power. It is dangerous to the extreme, but it has the ability to work, and work well, in places where most other sources of power won’t due to environmental issues.
I also think that large scale solar farms, around ranches or in cities should be built to help reduce the burden on existing power production. If you replaced every rooftop in suburbia with solar panels you could produce all of the power needed by the cities they surround. But, the problem then becomes where do you store the power?
That, in a nutshell, is the biggest problem with solar and wind power. How do you store what you have produced. You can only transfer power around so long before you finally need to store it. Especially in any country that doesn’t cover 11 time zones, which would be all of them with the collapse of the USSR several years ago. I don’t see giant buildings filled with batteries, or basements filled with batteries, as being any safer than nuclear reactors.
There will not be enough money or technology for there to be huge change in the next 5 years. Change is happening but it will be much slower than many wish or believe. Being overly optimistic risks additional failures similar to Solyndra that result in scandal and may cause the loss of legitimacy to green efforts. A realistic, phased approach in many areas is what has the best chance of success. Pushing too hard to shut down things like coal too soon without a rational transition could drive costs of energy for individuals and industry out of sight. This would have dire effects on the already weak economy and drive higher unemployment and poverty. If successful, progress will be slower than many want but it can be achieved if people and leaders are patient, rational and determined. The alternative is a bigger mess, no progress and more polarized factions spending all of their effort drawing battle lines and assigning blame instead of getting things done.
Oil, coal, and gas will steadily become more expensive at a mean rate of ~20%/year. EVs will have negligible impact on oil usage – for decades.
Global economic growth will still continue at a rate of ~2%/yr, and inflation in the U.S. will remain low.
The gap between the rich and the poor will continue to widen. It will take 10-12 more years of this before something close to revolution (major rioting) comes to the U.S. We will not see another period of sustained strong growth in the U.S. until several years after that happens.
We will not see serious and effective commitment to reduced CO2 emissions until after we’ve seen several years of strong economic growth.
Without a social revolution of some considerable scale, the planetary ecological destruction will continue and it will be realized that we have reached certain global warming tipping points and that without a world-wide urgent effort, our species is on track for extinction. Without action, within 5 years, we will be able to predict our fate. With serious urgent action at war-time speed across the planet with youth and elders alike working on assembly lines to meet our survival needs, we would have a chance at survival with no guarantee. We are in trouble folks. We must wake up quickly. The history of our future must be made NOW. We can’t be bothered with political elections and pondering what will happen in the next election. We need decisions now, made by people willing to sacrifice their elected position on behalf of the citizens they serve, however unlikely this scenario may come into play.
I think it will take more than five years for people in the U.S. to see the error of their ways. I think methane-powered fuel cells will be the battery choice of the future because (a) we need to use methane to avoid getting it into the atmosphere and (b) the technology of fuel cells has shown good promise for powering everything that needs power. It can be scaled up, and it can be scaled down. Another choice would be used oil in diesel engines. If we put the right types of materials into the plastics in vehicles, they can use the oil without any further modification…they don’t need only diesel! In fact, the first diesel engine burned peanut oil. There’s a lot more we can do but that’s enough for now I guess.
Since the climate has been “squealing” for several years already, an abrupt warming is imminent, very likely within the next five years. While this will cause catastrophic droughts and floods in the U.S. Leadership will do nothing while saying all the right words. Both parties are elitist and consequently don’t think systems. They imagine that they will mechanistically “control” what’s about to happen; more to the point, that they will remain in control of society. They regard the greater population of Americans as expendable. All of this will take place in the context of a deep depression in the developed countries because the financial elites will continue to consolidate wealth rather than invest in a sustainable economic system. I could go on but it just gets blacker.
There is far too much infrastructure that depends on cheap fossil energy and that great effort will be given towards maintaining the status quo. This means that the outlying regions and members in the lower economic circles will be increasingly abandoned, while wealth and power attempt to protect their own intrests.
I suspect that demand destruction will act against investment in needed infrastructure, which will lead to wild oscillations in fossil energy prices and supply.
Leadership is needed to guide civilization to a new future and I do not see that happening much anywhere as of yet.
“…convincing even the global climate change deniers/skeptics that the theory is essentially correct…” Only when big oil manuvers themselves into equivalent monopoly (and profitability) positions with renewables will we find their resistance to renewables changing to some shade of enthusiasm. And of course it is they who are behind the so called climate deniers. Cheap storage will be one of the most disruptive technologies in this regard. We have come to think that 2-3% growth every quarter is normal, but how can this be sustainable indefinately? Kindness does exist in the world however, and the power of love is ultimately stronger than the dark side.
A flaw in your very pertinent questions was that you failed to include timeframes as some had a positve and negative answer over short and long term. The questions also should have had a gloobal aspect. Increasingly the USA is having a less dominant impact on global economies. 20 years ago the USA comprised 50% of the GDP of the top 10 countries. Now the USA comprises only 33% of the GDP of the top 10. (Please exclude the EU as a single unit. The USA needs to look over the fence more often. It only shows that growth and environmental issues are arising in less focused upon economies.
We are headed to environmental disasters in the next few years that will force most people to make changes. Changes in their lives that they hope will save them from the worst affects of climate change. After Pearl Harbor, the American people did an about face in a very short period of time. We can and must do it again.
We will bumble along with too many people on the planet and temporarily save ourselves when we unlock new energy sources as yet just a dream. But the dream will be short-lived if we do not address overpopulation and the consequent food and water shortages that will simply not go away with 7 billion mouths to feed. Unpalatable as it may seem, we have to start reducing our numbers through education and a responsible attitude to the breeding cycle of ‘homo erectus’. A solution to our energy needs is not a solution at all. When we get past 10 billion of us it will be game over anyway. And that assumes we don’t destroy the habitat to the extent that even the bees disappear in the meantime. We are so stuck in the ‘more energy’ mode, that we fail to see that we are breeding ourselves into oblivion.
Reg Wessels
Earth Corporation
Solar Energy will be the total source of Power i all forms Solar PV, CPV, Wind Power, wave Energy And all renewables with good storage at low cost
Within two to five years, home owners should be able to walk into local hardware stores like Home Depot and purchase modular solar panels with micro converters which can be installed by local electricians in less than half a day. Solar energy installation cost can be recovered in less than 5-7 years.
This is true today. Check out Westinghouse’s kits at Lowes that can be installed in less than one-half day. See the “Become a Dealer” video on theit website – “one-half hour to install a 2kW system”.
I believe that global warming and climate change is real and therefore, new energy technologies and their research would continue to gain momentum in 5-10 year and then 10-20 years in multiple stages, in spite of global energy, food and water crisis caused perhaps partly by climate change and over growing population. These stages would see global energy situation improving in all countries. However it could be a very hard road ahead. Efficient solar energy collectors and storage would be ideal solutions in the next 5-10 years. Energy, Food and water crisis, if not addressed and addressed soon, would put us in a very precarious situation in the future.
Solar will drop below $0.04/kWh within 5 years and below $0.03/kWh within 10 years. Electric busses will prove out Qualcomm’s wireless charging and induction rails will be added to the carpool lanes in San Diego and L.A.
My view is less apocolyptic than some expressed here, but I do think there will be more wars about energy, however the US seems to have discovered many more energy resources (Gas) and so I think the problems will be elsewhere.
Because of %70 of world reseve of Boron is in Turkey ,Boron will be used as storage of renewable energy beside of ammonia. There will be cascade system for long term energy storage middle and short term storage will be possible by using batteries
I’m not American however I believe the US public are about to have a major wake up call regarding a number of US policies, both domestic and foreign, particularly when it comes to energy. Being a world super power only to back out of or simply ignore international needs regarding energy, is simply a double standard. The US administration has and continues to betray the American people with its lack of foresight and responsibility regarding is approach to sustainability. In short, your survey by definition is the tip of the ice berg. The US is like a parent that says to their children, “do as I say not as I do”
When the human race can finally agree that it’s not clever to s**t in your backyard,then maybe some kind of new dawn of understanding will revolutionize societies need for oil based products.With the population of he planet ever expanding, it’s increasingly harder to feed its greed for the planets mineral wealth.
While I understand the concerns and agree on some, I am much more optimistic that renewables are reaching a tipping point on purely economic terms. We are in the early days still, and there is a lot of room to improve costs to the point where people widely adopt renewable energy and move toward more electric driven cars and the like.
The US has a chance to be one of the leaders in the green energy sector – but only if we stop making it about climate change or being green. For most people, paying less to drive your car and run your home / business will be the main drivers. Being less dependant upon oil will have the added benefit of allowing us to drop our huge military spending. That is money that can be put to much better use.
within your five year perspective I wouldn’t expect more than business as usual. In the US, the drag on political, economic and technical change from anti-science, evangelical movements and big business interests will continue to constrain essential moves to a more sustainable (survivable?) future. Structural and economic implosion in Europe will have shock waves lasting longer than 5years, inhibiting the generally positive actions started there. the Middle East will continue to be volatile, unpredictable and introspective, where concern for Climate stability will come low on their list of priorities. Let’s hope China, without the time constraint of achieving a democratic consensus, gets the message, sees the economic benefits of global domination in ‘green’ technologies, and cleans up its industrial legacy.
There will be a massive earth quake resulting to some of the cavities created through mining and drilling in parts of the world to collapse causing a very big hollow that will swallow vast area of civilization.
I’m not sure how important oil will be in the future. I wish I knew more, but surely the major growth areas in the global economy are less oil-dependant then the US, or?
I’d bet my money for a continued surge of solar energy (PV, CSP, solar heating), making electricity a cheaper and cleaner option for more and more appications. The challenge for the power sector will be to transform from a producer of kilowatthours, to a supplier of kilowatts when they are needed for balancing supply of intermittent sources and hopefully a more flexible demand side. Concepts such as energy storage, improved transmission capacity and DSM will be crucial.
Calderon technology will begin producing energy for both transportation and electricity.
Communities will look within at their resources to produce energy for transportation and electricity – The three rules for production of sustainable energy is develop locally,produce locally and consume locally.
Rural communities will become grid neutral by turning to local resources and solar-hydrogen-fuel cells.
We like to call it holistic sustainable energy systems.
Thomas Edison’s vision was local, local, local.
With Respect to Russ, Thomas A Edison was an idea thief who believed in local, local, local (to borrow your phrase) because DC electricity doesn’t travel long ranges to save your life. We are fortunate, indeed, that Tesla’s vision of electric power transmission and generation won out over Edison’s or you would have little Natural gas power plants every few blocks and in every large building.
As for the other, solar/hydrogen fuel cells will only work when it takes less energy to generate the hydrogen than you get by using it. But, at least you recognize a problem many people haven’t even addressed. How do you store your electric power? I did a little research online tonight and it looks like you would need a bank of about 18-24 12v batteries in your house to store the energy necessary to carry you through the night when solar power isn’t available. Especially if you expect to charge your electric car overnight in your garage. So I guess the modern house of the future comes equipped with a battery room that is equipped with negative ventilation to ensure that no toxic or explosive gasses are released while the batteries cycle.
5 years is not much of time for big changes.
Solar PV will improve and be competitive is some place with high electricity prices and lost of sunshine, but not everywhere in 5 years time.
Also battery improvements will be made, but they will not yet be competitive in 5 years time. We need batteries to last at least 10 years (3500 cycles) and be cheap enough (compared to other car fuels) to make EV’s attractive. We could then see a family with 2 cars having 1 EV and 1 fossil fuel car. The EV will be driven most of the time and make the most yearly distance, but the fossil one will be used for the long distance trips.
Nuclear is to pricey in the western world and is not competitive against gas or coal. Even wind is cheaper on a price/kWh base. Only developing countries like China, India, Russia, Korea and the Middle East will install nuclear. I suspect they are less regulated and therefore cheaper. In the US and UK, nuclear has financing problems.
The oil price can not go up anymore unless people use oil more efficiently. If the average car does 50 miles/gallon (4l/100km) we can pay oil at 200$.
Follow the Andrea Rossi low energy nuclear device. It should be available within a year. The initial device will be for heating(10KW)only with a fuel cost of less than $40/year plus cost of 1.67KW electricity from local power company.
This will be followed by electric power generation along with heating resulting in approximately 3KW electric and 7KW heat per unit.
Investment cost for initial (boiler-heater) is estimated to be under $1,000 for 10KW.
Crisis here in Europe creates opportunity. A destroyed Europe impossibly burdened with debt was revived after 1945 by the U.S. vision of a brighter future – known as the Marshall Plan. By creating long-term guaranteed demand, the Marshall Plan gave Europeans the confidence to rebuild. Germans call what followed ‘the economic miracle’.
Now Europe needs to coordinate and deliver its own Marshall Plan – The prize is not just revitalised economies and the rapid adoption of disruptive innovations. It is also energy security, clean energy and the efficiencies and savings that a single European electricity grid can deliver.
Though it is most desirable that green energy gets prominence in the next five years, the track record so far does not give any optomistic out look across the world…mainly due to self centered lobby’s that rule the nations!..otherwise we would have seen the greener world by now…talks are loud but actions are slow!…be that as it may I am still an optimist and look forward to greater use of green energy in the next five years!
5 years isn’t much time, and I saw no mention of natural gas as the “next” best substitute for electric power plants. In the U.S. the head-in-the-sand climate change nay-sayers will continue to enjoy support from too many tea party extremists (and the all-powerful oil lobby). It will take many more than 5 years to fix what’s wrong with congress.
Terrible survey – Vote on EVERY question?
Allow duplicate votes?
Please get some competent tech’s.
I’ll look into this; we’re having trouble finding the functionality we want, but I agree that this is clumsy.
Five years is a short horizon. Longer term, hyrogen is the fuel of the future. It will be a commodity the existing energy companies can produce, market and sell. We will not see it, however, until these existing companies can extract as much fossil-fuel based energy as they reasonably can and market within the existing infrastrucutre.
Solar, wind, tidal, etc. could possibly become competitive with other energy sources but they have no financial backing from the existing energy companies. I believe a major reason why there is no financial support is that these alternative energy sources involve only an initial capital investment profit with limited O&M revenue down the line. There are no profits to be made on fuel commodity unless these companies can find a way to monopolize the sun, wind and oceans.
As history has taught us we should enter into inflationary times sooner than later, which will stall the clean-tech industry even more. What little investment dollars are available now will move to more secure higher return securities. Longer range outlook (10 to 15yrs), I feel we have a better chance of moving things like waste to energy and cost effective alternative fuels and yes even the battery will become mainstream.
I see the states continuing to take the steps to promote clean energy with the lack of Federal guidance. The electric vehicle will not be a major player in the transportation arena for many more years. Goods transport will continue to become more dominated with natural gas vehicles.
Hopefully the Feds will get there act together to a point that the electric grid will get enough direction so that the pieces will fit together in some manner.
In brief, we will continue to muddle through for the next decade before any federal plan will emerge.
The biggest impact to date has been in the form of fuel switching – coal to natural gas. The only downside of this trend (cheap NG)has been that it has greatly hindered new (but more expensive) green power technologies. Given the ineptitude of the Federal Mess, the US will have to look at more populated, progressive States for our continued ad-hoc energy policy. Sad but true. The energy incumbents (Oil Co, & most others) will benefit and do very little unless they are forced to…………….Is this the best we can do?
It seems that new oil costs $105-$110 per barrel to develop. The world economy uses less oil above $104. Oil has now dropped to $90 and excess refineries are shutting down. There is only a true gamblers incentive to dig for more oil.
Solar and wind plants already are cheaper than new coal plants. Solar and Wind and geothermal plants have to be payed for every thirty years where coal and oil have to be payed for at fluctuating prices continuously. Coal is already being competitively priced out of business.
Continual advances and cost reductions in solar, wind, geothermal, battery and hydrogen technology will continue to erode fossil energy use.
The big push is the automakers drive for hydrogen fuel cell cars 2013-2016. Even improved batteries take too long to charge and the car companies want to sell fast filling, long range, pollution free cars. After all they are in the car business and want to sell cars.
The future is actually bright as fossil is depleting and fading away and the alternatives are growing and getting less expensive. A solar hydrogen economy is the end game and the world will be well on its way by 2035.
Economics (including short sighted self interest and greed) will continue to trump Science, technology, the environment and any sense of needing to do the right thing until enough shocks are felt by the world that we change our ways… for a time. This is the lesson of history and what we will see in the near term going forward with isolated pockets of a different attitude. The counter to this: Leadership is not evident as economic interests also see leadership as a populist phenomena working against economic goals.
Near term is hybrid drive systems with gasoline or diesel engines, transitioning to Compressed Natural Gas hybrids and increasing all electric ranges as battery technology advances.
Push for all domestic fuel sources over imports oil will stabilize economy and enable us to be a net exporter of goods.
Based on my thirty years in the energy business, the “innovation” we might see (i.e., that will register in the professional or public consciousness) in the next five years might include evolutionary improvements in gas turbine/generators and wind turbine/generators, and perhaps minor gains from some of the smart grid deployments in the way of efficiency and demand management based on price signals. But that’s about it. The business models for the electricity industry do not reward innovation and the business models for the energy industries as a whole reward economic productivity on extraction and delivery. And since financial speculation has been injected on top of energy commodities, price volatility prevents everyone from serious long-term planning around new, more environmentally sound objectives.
Whether one calls it peak oil or not, oil will continue to be more expensive year over year – no going backwards. Like a leaky faucet, this continuous increase in the extraction of what would otherwise be discretionary capital will make the other important issues of the day even more financially difficult.
Energy policy will likely muddle along in Obama 2nd term, and after that we will see a republican administration do even less. There will be no help coming from the regulatory side of the house.
Not even the best climatologists have a sense of when and how much a ‘tipping point’ might be. If one occurs in a manner that is generally apparent, it will be an all bets off scenario.
Humans have extremely short term memory – witness current USA politics. It is likely we will forget the lessons of Fukushima, et al. That, plus newer technologies, plus the extreme pressure for non-fossil fuel sources, might push us back into the nuclear option.
Utility scale energy storage will be a serious game changer, but again, it is nearly impossible to predict when those technologies will be recognized and adopted.
If there is a change in the administration and that new administration starts reducing the size and scope of government we will see an increase in renewable energy development just because the cost and depth of regulation may change for the better.
Right now its hard to justify investment when the cost of permitting and licensing a project takes so long and requires so much money. If the service agencies are taken down a notch and reduce their demands for mitigation we will see the increase in development.
An example is licensing an existing dam for hydro; the cost of integrating requirements demanded by US Fish and Wildlife Service, Army Corp, NOAA etc is killing projects that otherwise could increase firm base energy, provide storage and reduce the need for transmission build out. I don’t think a conservative administration will change clean air and water regulation but rather reduce the red tape.
Global recesion is when the majority of people who work, can’t make an income. We are close. Energy is key, in a sane scenario. But, I fear world leaders will choose war as an easy way to recover, plus print lots of money and get rid of a few unemployed. The changes in our future is tied to Thorium based power plants, wind, photovoltaics and kinetics,
While aome significant events that affect energy can happen in the next 5 years, the responsive substantative change in the energy infrastructures and institutions is likely to take much longer. There is so much uncertainty in energy that scenario planning might perhaps be the better approach, rather than deterministic forecasting.
I’m still fairly optimistic that our civilization will be sustained, at least for the next 5 years.
I believe that solar will prosper in spite of incoming tide. Cannot stop the attractiveness of having one’s own power source on your own property. Gives one a sense of satisfaction in doing something that is good for all.
Forrest Gump said, “Stupid is as stupid does” Fiat currency will destroy America soon. Riot and socialism will lead to civilization collapsing. Solar and batteries will be our power supplies. Change without hope is coming as the one world progressives seek to destroy all.
Hopefully, We will increase the viability of batteries, and thier cost will become affordable……There must be a realization that we need to be more independently sustainable……
As an owner of an electric vehicle, I have found that the vehicle serves 95% of my needs and costs 1/10th of what it was costing me in fuel and maintenance. Unfortunately adoption of EVs in the U.S. will be slow even if the gas prices steadily rise. People in this country ignore a problem and hope that it just goes away. The average person doesn’t want to know how much of their income is “burned” up on gas! The problem isn’t a “technical” one! It is a “mindset”!
There will a slow but growing trend toward use of alternate energy – wind, solar, natural gas – but no major revoltions. Electric drives will become more popular in transportation – both commercial and personal with the major growth in the plug-in hybrid area. Unfortunately, nuclear will decline until someone clearly defines its benefits with reasonable control of safety and waste and the public understands its potential to solve both eviromental and sustainable energy issues. Evolution but not revolution with a gglobal flavor – hopefully with USA playing a major technological role but probably with the social and economic push coming from abroad.
Energy and Clean Water are the two critical factors or environmental issue for the short and mid-term.
The political instability, and difficulty in predicting what will happen in the middle east surely do not bode well for a consistent supply of oil which will put pressure on increasing our domestic supply perhaps tapping our Strategic Oil Reserves, more exploration offshore which is dangerous,
and further support energy alternatives and importantly, I believe that energy efficiency will rise in importance.
I believe that we will see PV and Wind grow, but unsteadily due to continued short term incentive and policy changes. Electric cars will slowly gain market share, but if gas prices drop much more it will definitely slow that down. If western countries abandon Nuclear as Germany, Japan, and Italy have so far, then we will see all the gains from the expansion in renewables wiped out, as they have yet to achieve large scale in most of these countries, and Germany is starting to hit the operating limits of wind and solar without massive upgrades to the grid and added storage capacity. Im afraid that is likely, due to the common irrational fear of radiation, as in Scott Browns comment. The particulate pollution coming over from China is far more of a hazard than the infinitessimal amount of radiation reaching our shores.