Here’s a post I wrote on Renewable Energy World on president Obama’s State of the Union address the other night.
I like to support Obama for his efforts along a number of lines, especially a progressive energy policy. But to me, all the pandering to the masses in that address served more to confuse people than to enlighten and motivate them.
I recently had the pleasure of speaking with Dr. Amir Mikhail, Senior Vice President of Engineering for Clipper Windpower, in an effort to develop my chapter on wind for my upcoming book on renewable energy. This talk was full of interesting nuances about the physics and engineering aspects of cutting-edge the technology for extracting energy from the wind and converting it to mechanical – and ultimately to electrical energy. And, as suggested by today’s photo, we began with some fascinating history on the subject.
But Dr. Mikhail raised a few basic points about the renewables industry in general that I thought I would share in this post:
The issue of energy storage is – for the US at this point at least – something of a red herring. With 2% overall penetration of clean energy (across all forms of renewables) the fluctuation associated with the intensity of the wind – even locally — is of essentially no consequence to overall energy availability levels whatsoever. Moreover, by the time the penetration rate increases to anywhere resembling that of Europe, we will have developed smart grid technologies that will enable far better real-time control of large sections of the grid. E.g., if the wind is not blowing strong in area A, let’s see what it’s doing in area B, C, or D.
We also discussed the tough choices forced upon us a we migration to renewables. The wind industry takes seriously the issue of environmental damage associated with its farms, and conducts ongoing research to ensure that the size of turbine rotors and the hours of operation are creating a minimum of negative impact. In the early days of commercial wind, the primary issue was large raptors; now, decades later, the focus is on bats, whose tiny lungs cannot handle the differential in air pressure around the turbines. The industry also is making an effort to build farms in areas that already have a significant human footprint, recognizing the imperative to preserve the true wilderness wherever possible.
However, Dr. Mikhail points out that there are no existing clean energy technologies that come with zero environmental impact. We do have to make choices, and each of these choices will represent some level of sacrifice. “The people in a coal mining state back east were offered a choice of either putting wind turbines on a local mountain, or chopping off the top of the mountain, pulling the coal out of it, and burning it. Craig, do you realize that they chose the latter? There are choices. We simply have to make the best ones.”
Again, Dr. Mikhail, thanks for the insights.
My colleague Bill Moore of EV World wrote an excellent article on the likely trajectory for the price of cars and trucks. In it, he speculated that the prices of electric vehicles (once they are introduced in production quantities) may actually fall steadily, much like the price of consumer electronics — and that this will represent a first-ever event in automotive history.
I agree. In fact, I’m quite certain that we’ll see this effect, as it’s essentially guaranteed by Moore’s Law – (named for Intel co-founder Gordon Moore — no relation to Bill — the idea that the sophistication of technology rises and its price falls exponentially over time).
I’m also sure we’ll see this same phenomenon at work driving down in the price of renewable energy. The cost of energy from the burning of fossil fuels is rooted in its ever-shrinking supply, producing prices increases. On the other hand, the price of renewables is all about technology: semiconductors, advanced materials science, nanotechnology, etc. — all areas that can only improve as the years go by.
All we have to do is get over the hump associated with ushering oil and coal off the stage. What do you think it will take to accomplish that, do you suppose?
What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object? This paradox is most often discussed in the context of God’s omnipotence (“Can God create a stone so heavy it cannot be lifted, not even by God Himself?”).
I’m reminded of this ancient philosophic conundrum when I contemplate the future of the energy industry. The “Conference of Parties” (COP-15) summit is now only a little more than a month away. . . and world-renowned economists are calling for it to create a market worth $1 trillion. . . per year. . . for decades. And to me, trillion dollar markets call to mind the notion of an force that is certainly very large indeed, if not irresistible.
Yet if there were ever an immovable object, it would be the traditional energy industry, dominated as it is by oil and coal.
I presume there are at least a few truly progressive, independent and honest people in Washington who are trying to stand up on our behalf against the force of the fossil fuel industries. Yet they are utterly powerless to defend us from the atrocities of these corporate giants. Want proof? We just came through eight years of an administration that consistently voted against funding of the development of lithium-ion batteries, against fuel efficiency standards, against mandates on renewable portfolios, against enhanced geothermal, and against the extension of tax credits for renewables. Looking for an immovable object? You just found one.
I know that sounds pessimistic, though my aim is not to depress readers. I don’t think of myself as a cynic; I think of myself as a pragmatist. And it’s that spirit of pragmatism that provides the motivation by which I write on this blog every day and spend a few hours on my book on renewables; it’s really all I can do to inform and, I hope, to inspire readers to get involved themselves.
In any case, I suppose we’re all about to see what happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object.
One hears a great deal about the cyclical rebound in many of the phenomena we come across in our lives – especially political and financial. I’m always amused by the consultants who urge us to invest in blue chip stocks like General Electric and so forth, on the basis that they’ve taken a momentary downturn, but they always come back. Hey, don’t panic, kid — it’s business as usual — it’s feast and famine. But stop and think. Do you know the normal consequence of famine in nature? It’s Death. It’s Extinction.
My point is not to depress you. I don’t think of myself as a cynic; I think of myself as a pragmatist. I’m here to point to what’s real. And that reality is that we are all directly and systematically oppressed. We are all being deliberately lied to and confused by the energy industry.
OK, but what’s new here? Hasn’t the common man been on the receiving end of the deceit of the super-rich pretty much throughout recorded history? As far as I can tell, the answer is yes. But a hundred years ago when we suffered under the exploitation of the great robber barons, the consequences of those lies by the powerful and ruthless people of the day were monopolies and economic depressions. But now, the consequences are the ruination of our oceans, our atmosphere, and the generally hospitable climate on the only planet we have.
So here’s my point. Don’t expect a miracle. In fact, I have a prediction: There will be no miracle. If there is a chance for us, it will come from you and me with our sleeves rolled up, working hard to expose the facts, and make big changes — fast. We live under tyranny – a tyranny of corporatocracy and corruption, where the huge interests of the energy industry are determined to do everything they can to defeat renewables. Why? Why are money and power so alluring to some people who live on the same dying planet with you and me? I don’t know. That’s beyond me. Ask them if you get a chance and let me know. All I’m trying to say that this: if you and I don’t create a huge impact on our way of life right now, we will not get another chance.
Henry Kissinger said not too long ago that if it weren’t for the opposition of the common American to the war in Vietnam, we’d still be there. That’s amazing, isn’t it? An admission of the truth: By the early 1970s, the war had become so unpopular that our leaders in Washington were forced to take a different course.
The situation now is the same. The great oil, coal, and nuclear energy companies and the lobbies that own the congressmen who create the policy at their behest will turn this planet into a wasteland in which only the super rich will have any real quality of life – unless we do something.
Over the coming weeks, you’ll see more functionality here on 2GreenEnergy that will enable us all to become more vocal and more active in making a real change in world energy policy. Let’s hope there’s still time.
Martin van Wunnik of Belgium writes:
….And as for all those guys & gals of the coal, oil, nuclear and auto industries who have been delaying it all for years/decades, I wonder if they can look proudly into the eyes of their innocent kids…
First, thanks for writing, and let me say that I love Belgium. I used to consult to Philips in Eindhoven; I’d fly into Brussels and drive out that incredible road past the fields and beautiful little towns.
This also reminds me to note that we sent “Brass Tack #1″ to people in 22 different countries. My sincere thanks to everyone internationally for their interest.
To your point, as I have written elsewhere, I agree with you 100%. There are thousands of people who will have to explain to Saint Peter at the Pearly Gates that their life’s work consisted to befouling a planet and damaging the health and safety of 6.8 billion innocent people. I’m certainly glad I’m not one of them.
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