I’m headed for San Jose, CA this week for the annual Plug-In show. Like virtually every other event in the green space, these events get bigger and more exciting each year. Now, with the advent of the Nissan Leaf and dozens of other EVs from major manufacturers right on its heels, I expect quite a large and enthusiastic crowd.
I’ve written several articles over the past couple of years on the EV adoption curve as I predict it will happen, and I freely admit that my position is at odds with a great number of other industry observers. Maybe I’m missing something, but I see no major bumps and unaddressable challenges. Here are a few items for your consideration:
Consumer Demand. Will consumers rebuke the change from internal combustion engines (ICEs)? Sure, some will, for a short period of time. There were people who thought horseless carriages were the work of Satan in the early 20th Century. I’m sure there will be holdouts – for any of a dozen reasons. But who cares? Consumer acceptance will far outstrip the gradually increasing supply.
Note the two major pressures that will be exerted on consumers:
Gas prices. There are people, believe it or not, who care not one whit for anyone in the world except themselves and their immediate families. But even Hummer drivers will run to EVs when gas prices spike back up.
Peers. Imagine that you’re a fence sitter, and your next-door neighbor starts zipping around in a cool, high-torque, low-cost, near-zero-maintenance car with no tailpipe whose fuel costs him the equivalent of gasoline at $0.60 per gallon. I predict that simply seeing such a vehicle and talking to its owner will be a powerful motivating force in the direction of an EV.
Infrastructure. Will charging infrastructure be inadequate? This is a more complicated issue, but again, the answer is essentially no. It’s true that early EV adopters will need to plan their trips more carefully than ICE drivers, and that EVs – for the foreseeable future, will not be right for everyone, e.g., those few who rely on one vehicle to make frequent trips out of town. But for most, charging at home is not a problem — and soon charging at the workplace, shopping centers, and movie theaters will be ubiquitous.
So what about EVs on long trips? That will have to wait. But we’re replacing 230 million cars on US roads; that won’t happen overnight either.
Readiness of the Utilities. Will power utilities we able to cope with the increased demand for electricity? Yes. Most EVs will be charged at night with off-peak power that is of no value anyway. The increase in daytime power consumption will be very slow.
Shortages. Will there be shortages of lithium and other elements critical to the EV supply chain? I predict not. We haven’t really started looking for lithium. We didn’t think there was oil in the Earth’s crust either – until we started to look for it. Unfortunately, we found it, extracted it, and burned it. And now far better informed people than I are worried about uranium shortages because our civilization is concerned that we won’t be able to build enough nuclear reactors. Wow.
Cavalier Dismissal? Am I just trivializing important issues? Could be. But I’m betting I’m right.
In any case, I’ll hope to see you at the show — check it out here. As always, if you happen to be there and would like to say hello, please let me know; just hit contact.
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