[The Vector] European Commission Has Ambitious (Radical?) Transport Plan, Including Elimination of Gasoline Cars by 2050

Europe has had a much higher cost of fuel for decades.  After the oil shocks of the 1970’s, many of the countries took action. Europe is far ahead of the U.S. in moving to smaller and more fuel-efficient cars, hybrids, EVs and Europe has adopted a greener outlook than the U.S.  Yet, even so, the EU still depends on oil and oil products for energy and transport needs.

Now the European Commission has a new aim, outlined in a recent White Paper. It aims to phase out and eliminate gasoline and diesel-powered cars in cities by 2050 among other things.

Transport is fundamental to economy and society, mobility is vital for quality of life, and transport is global. “Oil will become scarcer in future decades, sourced increasingly from uncertain supplies,” states the report. “As the IEA has recently pointed out, the less successful the world is in decarbonizing, the greater will be the oil price increase. In 2010, the oil import bill was around 210 Billion Euros for the EU. If we do not address this oil dependence, people’s ability to travel – and our economic security – could be severely impacted with dire consequences on inflation, trade balance and the overall competitiveness for the EU economy.” (page 3; “Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area: Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system”, European Commission COM 2011, 144 final)

Though implementation and improvements since the 2001 white paper on transport have occurred, the Commission says that the current system is not sustainable. “Looking 40 years ahead, it is clear that transport cannot develop along the same path. If we stick to the business as usual approach,” the report continues, “the oil dependence of transport might still be little below 90%…” (page 4.)  The key challenge is to break the system’s dependence on oil without sacrificing efficiency or compromising mobility. Neither can action be delayed, emphasized the Commission. “Growing out of oil” will not be possible by relying on just one type of technology, but an array of technologies and applications.

Infrastruction takes many years to plan, build and equity, and choices made today will determine results in 2050. There are challenges large and small to tackle. For instance, many know that there are extensive and efficient rail systems in many EU countries, but some countries have put down different sized rails, which has hampered some cross-EU high-speed rail systems.

So what are some of the suggestions and benchmark plans? 

1)     Halve the use of “conventionally-fueled” cars in urban areas by 2030, and phase them out in cities by 2050.

2)     Develop low-carbon sustainable fuels for aviation to reach 40% by 2050.

3)     30% of road freight should shift to rail and waterborne transport by 2030, and more than 50% by 2050, helped by developing more “green corridors” with new infrastructure.

4)     By 2050, complete a European high-speed rail network, triple the length of existing networks by 2030 and maintain a dense railway network in all EU member states. The majority of medium distance passenger transport should be by rail by 2050.

5)     All core network airports should be connected to rail networks; all core seaports should be connected to rail freight and/or inland waterway systems.

6)     Move towards full application of “user pays” and “polluter pays” principals.

The report also adds that commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions comes into play with the plan.

In the many urban clusters, the Commission recommends a strategy of land-use planning, pricing schemes, efficient public transport and infrastructure, and charging/refueling stations for electric and clean vehicles, with the goal to reduce congestion, reduce carbon emissions and noise, and make cities even more livable and accessible.

The European Commission does not make law – the report and recommendations inform the European Parliament (elected by the public in the 27 member countries.)

There has been mixed reviews to the plan, some calling it too ambitious or radical, and others bristling over the move away from cars in cities or loss of freedoms. However, there has been some support, too. The European Two-Wheel Retailers Association welcomes the plan, and even opined in “The Independent” that there should have been more call to use low carbon electric bicycles, electric scooters and such. AA president Edmund King said, “the reality is that by 2050, fossil fuels will be so expensive that a new approach to personal mobility will be inevitable.” (Geoff Meade. The Independent. March 28, 2011 “Radical EU Transport Plan Unveiled.)

Some worries have been expressed over government spending in an economic downturn that exists now. In fact, the EU Transport commissioner, Silm Kallas, said the investment in electric vehicles / electric transportation could run about 1.5 trillion Euros. We will stay tuned to see if the benchmarks will be reached and EU members can come together on this plan.