Jeremy Grantham and the Coming Global Food Shortage
I recommend that everyone track with the wisdom of Jeremy Grantham, chief investment strategist of Boston-based institutional money manager GMO LLC. I’ve written about Grantham many times, because I think his viewpoints on global warming are so insightful. He has $1.3 billion under management, and, with that type of loot on the table, he can’t afford to be wrong about the over-arching trends that shape our future, for better or for worse.
Here’s an article on his forecasts of a very serious global food shortage, brought about largely by climate change, that he believes will expand until long after the world’s population peaks at 9 billion around 2050.
Obviously, that’s not good news. But “forewarned is forearmed” as the old cliché goes. That’s why I spend so many cycles advancing the cause of Tower Harvest, a company on the cutting edge of bioaeroponics. I spent the better part of the day on Monday in meetings with the company’s top management, including its CEO, Rafael Quezada, developing a business plan that I think cleantech investors will find attractive.
Here’s a technology that offers the opportunity to grow lush, organic produce on a small fraction of the land traditionally required, with a relatively tiny amount of water. If Grantham is right, which his track record of success would certainly suggest, this is going to be of fantastic interest to the business (not to mention the humanitarian) community.
Couldn’t agree more and I’ve said as much in my past comments. The whole notion of “technology will provide for us” is magical thinking. Arable land and potable water are on the decrease. GM has pushed plant DNA pretty far down the road and we are starting to get into the asymptotic portion of the productivity curve. We can make plants a bit more insect resistant (and certainly more tasteless, but the fertilizers and continuous plantings take their toll.There are certainly no more 50 to 100% gains in productivity left. Much like new wells vs oil depletion, we are simply struggling to keep up the current yields, let alone increase them. Yes, we can make water and we can grow plants in artificial environments. All doable, and all energy intensive if you look at the entire life cycle including the embedded energy of the components.
Arable land loss will accelerate with climate change and associated sea level rise. Nothing to be done about it, so invest wisely.
The world has grown too much. Something has to give. Scarcity will create price increases. Price increases increase the divide between haves and have-nots. Have-nots get unhappy and try to change things.
Good, concise summary, Arlene. Thanks. Btw, I think I saw you in the audience at Amory Lovins’ talk down your way a few months ago. He was good, wasn’t he? I wrote that he “rocked the house.” http://2greenenergy.com/amory-lovins-rocks-the-house/21349/