Automotive Engineering and the Electric Vehicle Adoption Curve

I wrote a piece on France and renewable energy just now that reminded me of the first French-American EV conference (Long Beach, CA, in December, 2010); it was such a riveting event that I thought it would be followed by many more in quick succession.  But I was wrong; in fact, the second such meeting didn’t occur until just a few months ago, and, as it wasn’t local, I skipped it.

I’m always interested in the astounding rate at which automotive engineering is advancing.  Like most people, I realized many years ago that I have no idea what’s going on underneath the hood of my car, but I wrongly assumed that all this computerized magic had brought us to a static state; nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, the real push is yet to come, making use of a combination of materials science and mechanical/electronic engineering that will push fleet-average MPG levels to 54.5 by 2025.

Perhaps the most interesting issue is what all this means to the consumer.  Since only a relatively small percentage of drivers will pay more for an environmentally friendly car, the real issue becomes driving down the combined cost of the product and the fuel it uses, while making it appealing/sexy to the consumer.  What does this mean for the adoption of electric vehicles?  It’s hard to tell, and there are so many factors at play:

• The price of gasoline versus electricity

• The range that a certain EV provides and the lack of convenience and freedom that this implies

• The fuel-efficiency of  the gas-powered car in question.  If your car gets 54 MPG, the fuel cost argument is far weaker than it is at 25 MPG

Perhaps the most interesting thing in the presentation is the way the very technology that improves the range and overall functionality in electric vehicles is simultaneously improving hybrids, mild hybrids, and internal combustion engines.  It’s complicated out there.

On a related note, I announced happily a couple of months ago that a deal on our list of renewable energy investment opportunities closed, and it happens to involve an electric truck, the development of which continues to evolve nicely.