Good Ideas in Clean Energy Are Actually Quite Rare
A reader commented on my post “The Hedge Connection” – Bringing Together Investors (“Allocators”) with Hedge Fund Managers: “ideas are a dime a dozen.”
It is true that ideas are a dime a dozen. The same can’t be said about “good ideas,” however–and especially in the clean energy space. That’s simply because there are so many concepts that either don’t work at all, or, more commonly, don’t work cost-effectively in a world in which solar PV and wind are so mature and the levelized cost of energy from these technologies is falling every single day.
Even in the few (five) years that 2GreenEnergy has been here, there has been huge consolidation in this space. Windows of opportunity that were once wide open have been shutting quickly. That’s why, for instance, the “Ocean Energy” show that I used to enjoy so much no longer exists. People got tired of hearing presenters dodge questions from people like me: “So, George, when is this thing you’re talking about going to be commercializable?” The honest answer, i.e., “just this side of never,” isn’t something of which great trade shows are made (though the ocean makes for some fabulous photography, as demonstrated above).
Having said all this, I think it’s a solid bet that there is at least one good idea in ocean energy, and, if I had to pick one, it would be this one, from our “clean energy investors” page. But again, one good idea, surrounded by a few dozen weak ones, doesn’t make for a good trade show either.
With any luck there WILL be some great new ideas for green energy but, in the meantime, conservation seems to hold the most promise. Without being “weird”, our house uses about 20% of the electricity of the average house in the neighbourhood.
The biggest motivator for meaningful conservation will be a major increase in the price of oil – since so many commercial power generators have a huge carbon footprint. The key will be to convince a large chunk of the population that the “mature” technologies (solar, wind, improved insulation, etc.) are easy to do, affordable, and won’t mess up their lifestyle too much.
Pushing the altruistic reasons – good for the planet, think of your grandchildren, etc. – while “nice”, will not have the impact that $80/bbl oil does. Or $200/bbl.
If a changing climate leads to more severe weather events, hence more, longer power outages, that will also push people to look to alternatives. And if someone installs PV on the roof in case of emergency, then the temptation to use it all the time will be obvious.
The area I think we’re weakest in is energy storage. PV is cheap, conservation is effective but I still want to watch Hockey at 9pm in December. So, batteries – or, if not what we generally recognize as a “battery”, some effective, cost-efficient form of storage. If I had money, that’s where I would invest. (But please don’t contact me with a “great investment opportunity” – I’m retired and everything’s tied up in my house… )
10 years ago, lead acid was the most cost effective, assuming you had a suitable ventilated space. Heavy, awkward but a nice mature technology (Thank you Sr. Volta) made from plentiful materials. I’ll need to replace them once before I die – after that, it’ll be the kids’ problem. But I would like to see a better alternative…
Good ideas in Clean Energy are rare because very few people in this field can understand what is a REALLY GOOD IDEA and what is just mere make-up to an existing system. So, nothing unusual about about it.
I am not sure it is “good ideas” that are rare. For someone with a home there are many “good ideas” that can take a lifetime to implement.
But we seem to expect renewable resources to be a plug and play replacement for fossil fuels. On the contrary, renewable energy gathers energy from and depends upon the local environment and our current age. It is fossil fuels that are an ancient concentrated source of energy that is simply imported and made to work in almost any environment. That was part of their attraction and they have made us lazy so that we no longer wish to look at the local situation. Too often we are simply away from the practice of actually seeing our environment. We hope for a “global” or “cookie cutter” solution. There are hundreds of “good ideas” but they tend to be local. Perhaps what you are looking for is a “big” idea.
Tesla was working on a not only good but “big” idea when trying to tap into the Earth’s ionosphere for energy. Unfortunately thinking on this scale is too often relegated to the area of crackpot science.