Electric Vehicles Will Hit Hard, Fast and Expectedly. Who Predicted 10 Years Ago that 5 Billion Of Us Would Have Cell Phones?

I’m always interested in articles that speculate on the “electric vehicle adoption curve,” i.e., the pace at which EVs will be integrated into our transportation mix. Here’s a piece by Steven Cohen, Executive Director, Columbia University’s Earth Institute, that concludes with roughly my own belief: “I suspect that the transition to electric vehicles will happen suddenly and unpredictably; perhaps sooner than we think.”

The author comes at his conclusion by going in a few directions that I don’t feel have too much relevance: the driving habits of lifestyles of those living around New York City (where public transportation is excellent and the cost of car ownership is off the charts) and the impact of Shai Agassi’s Better Place battery swapping model (which, in the US, I think is negligible).  Having said that, there are some terrific observations:

The issue is how long will it take to overcome the momentum of sunk costs and old habits. Perhaps the cell phone provides a good model. Ask young people if they ever plan to own a landline phone. Look at the declining price per minute of phone time, and the increased use of phones, text messages and e-mail. These changes have been quite rapid and were not predicted by anyone. While an auto is far more expensive than a phone, and represents a major household investment, people seem open to new thinking about cars.

Exactly. Once this migration begins, and the common American starts talking to his neighbor and understanding how “unscary” electric transportation really is, I predict that it will be a matter of just a decade or so until we’ll find it hard to remember what all the shouting was about.