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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

As we all well know, China is front and center on the world stage when it comes to energy. The “awakening giant” is simultaneously the world’s biggest polluter and most aggressive clean energy investor, with bold, fully committed plans to deploy massive amounts of solar, wind, and other technologies over the coming decade. Indeed, it’s hard to open an article on the subject of renewables and not find some mention of the pace at which China is investing in clean energy.

But let’s explore this further, and look behind some of the headlines. Why exactly is this happening? In this month’s 2GreenEnergy survey, we ask you to rate your level of agreement with a half-dozen or so different propositions on the subject. Please click here to participate. Thanks very much!

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

Representatives from thirteen African nations joined together between June 30th and July 1st at a conference called “Power Kick for Africa”. 

Held in Nigeria, the two key themes of the conference were: 
1) How to gain access to cleaner, more affordable energy for African nations, and
2) that women should be strong participants to help quality of life and acceptance in the family and community. 

(more…)

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

Here’s a piece I just wrote for a client: “EV Profiler.”  Hope you enjoy. If you’re interested, please let me know.

It would certainly be foolish to underestimate the challenge the world faces in migrating to electric transportation. Just like any paradigm shift, pulling people away from their gasoline and diesel-fuelled vehicles requires that we dislodge habits that have become part of the fabric of the way our modern civilization lives.

Of course, the died-in-the-wool environmentalists (“tree-huggers,” as it were) will buy electric vehicles, regardless of the fact that they cost a bit more, and limit the driver’s freedom. Now, we know that certain people will make sacrifices for the common good, and some actually pride themselves on this point. Rightly, they see that weaning our nation off oil is indeed a common good – for a great number of different reasons. But what percentage of the population does this represent? No one knows; let’s be generous and say it’s 10%.

Conversely, there is another sector of the population that wouldn’t take an EV if it were given to them. I’m not sure I understand the mentality of these people quite as well, but rest assured, they’re out there. Let’s say that is another 10%.

But what about everybody else? After all, that’s a whopping 80% — an enormous number of pragmatists, with real-world concerns about things like fuel savings, total cost of ownership, and range anxiety. A huge segment of Americans will find themselves sitting on the fence. Isn’t there something that can be done to assuage their concerns?

I’m not sure how I would have answered that question last week, but this is now. I just ran across a device called the EV Profiler, a tool that addresses a core question that most consumers have about the emerging electric vehicle market: “Will it work for me?”

Imagine a conversation at the Nissan LEAF dealership that goes something like this:

Customer: You say I’ll get 100 miles in range. But I drive in hilly terrain, and I’m not exactly a little old lady behind the wheel. I do 75 miles per hour on the freeways – and more when I think I can get away with it. Somebody told me that, mile per mile, I’ll use twice as much charge at 75 as I would at 40. This sounds like a non-starter to me.

Salesman: I hear ya – and there’s an easy way to find out. Put this in your car for a week, and drive normally. It transmits your exact real-time energy use to a computer; tracks your speed, acceleration, climbing and descending hills, and so forth – all with amazing accuracy. At the end of the week, we’ll look at the report, and see exactly how far you could have gone in the LEAF.

Kind of takes the guesswork out of the equation, doesn’t it?

So what is the EV Profiler? Here’s a device that evaluates your driving conditions and style as they currently exist in the driver’s gasoline-powered car, and shows the battery requirements for the same travel in different models of electric vehicles: the Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, Ford Focus and Transit Connect van and the Tesla Model S.

In summary, the EV Profiler:

  • Turns a person’s existing vehicle into a virtual EV
  • Records and analyzes customers’ real world driving conditions, and simulates those same conditions in different EVs
  • Is quick and easy to use: mount it onto the windshield, plug it into the cigarette lighter, and drive as usual
  • Records your vehicle’s exact motion, speed, acceleration, and altitude — every second
  • Sends your vehicle’s motion data via cellular to EV Profiler’s computers which emails a daily report simulating different EVs
  • Responsibly and accurately alleviates range anxiety for thousands of fleet managers and potential EV consumers
  • Works totally automatically in any existing vehicle
  • Is rented for a week or two for a few dollars a day
  • Allows consumers to test drive an EV without ever being in one

If you’re interested in an EV and you’d like to know: “Will it work for me?” here’s a way to answer the question without any doubt.

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Science

I’m happy to report that Orion Walker, a professor at Mendocino College in Northern California, has decided to include “Renewable Energy — Facts and Fantasies” as part of the required reading for his course “Introduction to Cleantech” this fall.  I spoke with him on the phone just now, and volunteered to come up and speak to the class; we’ll try to make that happen.

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Energy Storage

One of the great things about our country is its tolerance of a diversity of opinion.  On top of that, we have the freedom to up the ante on those opinions and convert them into real commitments.  Any of us can, at any moment, decide to stand behind an idea, and give it all we have, even in the face of extreme risk.

This idea is not lost of John Gotthold of start-up venture HySolGenics, Inc., who writes:

Craig:  Loved your “Tough Realities” piece. But your approach is all big government and utility scale, yet your doubts are correct. Politicians don’t lead; they look for a parade already marching and try to get in front of it.  But what you did not mention is solar hydrogen, which provides for distributed power and storage that is independent of government and oil companies, an important social structure if we want to eat in the future.

Thanks, John. You convey such insight and spirit in so few words. I aspire to the same brevity.

I loved your comment about politicians and parades.  Is it original?  It’s really great.  And you’re not the first to point out that I favor big solutions, which do, in fact, call for government involvement, while downplaying the idea of distributed generation.

It’s what I believe.  But I’ve been wrong before.  Just ask my wife!

Kidding aside, you’re living the American Dream: the right to put your heart – and I presume your wallet – behind your belief.  Best of luck to you.

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

I’ve begun delivering a consulting action for my client, the “EV Profiler.” Imagine, if you will, a device placed in your current car that provides a super-accurate report on the amount of energy you consume in your day-to-day driving.  Based on where you’re going, how you accelerate, the way you take the hills you encounter, etc., you wind up with a near-exact calculation of the kilowatt-hours of energy you consumed – and thus the knowledge of how you would have fared in a LEAF, a Tesla, a Ford Focus Electric, or any of the dozens of other pure EVs coming online in the next year or two.

As the marketing guy, my job is to help introduce the EV Profiler to the world. I’ll be showing it to the Nissans of the world, getting them to deploy it through each one of their LEAF dealerships.

I believe this will be a powerful sales tool, since, with respect to electric transportation, I believe there is a certain percentage of fence sitters – people whose principal concern is range anxiety. A prospective customer might ask, “Does this EV offer enough range to support the way I really drive?” I don’t know. Throw this in your current car for a week, and let’s find out.

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

 Here’s an article on electric transportation I just put on Clean Energy Wonk, in which I express my continuing bullishness on the subject.

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

I’d like to re-extend an offer I made a year or so ago: If you’re trying to raise capital for a cleantech business from angel investors, venture capitalists, or private equity, and want objective feedback on your business plan (in any stage of formality), please send it to me. I’ll get right back to you with my honest opinion of your project – along with constructive suggestions for improvement you may want to consider.

Now in truth, I don’t want to see just any business plan. I would prefer that, in addition to its merely pertaining to cleantech, that it meet as many of the following features as possible:

1) Try to make it a game-changer. Is this an idea that has a very large available market? Does it offer a unique and obvious advantage over current solutions?

2) Demonstrate a market position that offers an opportunity for domination – or at least stability. Have you put yourself in a position where you’re likely to be usurped by large, powerful competitors? Perhaps you could own a market niche that is very unlikely to be challenged – at least for the foreseeable future.

3) Showcase the strength/quality of the team. At the end of the day, an investor has to walk away believing that you’re smarter than the other people who may be having similar ideas.

4) Present a solid marketing strategy. A good business plan contains a good marketing plan; “Build it and they will come” is fallacious business thinking.  How are you going to identify customer segments, and tell them your story in a clear, compelling way?

5) Understand what to expect from government. Most of the boom and bust cycles we’ve seen in cleantech to date have been driven by the rise and fall of incentives, subsidies, tax equity, loan guarantees, etc.   Where is the wind blowing in government?  How does that affect your trajectory for success – and your strategy for dealing with the uncertainties that come from each new election cycle? Can you succeed internationally, even if the US continues to drag its heels?

Again, I look forward to reviewing your ideas, and adding any value I feel I can.

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

…..continued from earlier post

These same wind turbines have been chosen for the world’s largest wind farm, the 845MW Shepherd’s Flat project in north central Oregon. 338 turbines will be installed; GE says that this turbine yields the highest energy production in its class, building upon its earlier successful 1.5MW turbines (more than 16,000 installed worldwide.) Owned and managed by Caithness Energy, it is estimated that the Shepherd’s Flat farm will power 235,000 average U.S. homes. Operations begin in 2012. GE is a partial financier of the project, along with Google, Sumitoma Corp. and others.  Key components of the new 2.5MW turbines will be manufactured at GE’s plan in Pensacola, Florida.

GE has forged a relationship in China over the years, having previously supplied gas turbines, steam turbines, hydro and wind turbines. Last year, the company announced a new joint venture in China. GE holds 49% and a subsidiary of Harbin Power Equipment holds 51%, and the new company will manufacture GE designed wind turbines for both offshore and near-shore installations in China.

Jack Wen, president of GE Energy China, was quoted as saying. “This is an important investment in China for GE and one that will enable us to participate in the tremendous growth potential of the Chinese wind turbine segment.”  Why would mega-force China, that already has the world’s largest wind turbine sales territory, enter into this arrangement? For one reason, it is anticipated that its market will surge by 500%, with installed capacity soaring from 25 GW in 2009 to 150 GW by 2020. This is thanks to a strong renewable energy plan.

What about solar?

While far behind its wind activity, GE is stepping in to solar. CEO Jeff Immelt identified solar as a key growth platform for the company, saying it could generate $3B in sales by 2015, as reported in the Financial Times (April 7, 2011.) GE announced it will build a 400 MW manufacturing facility in the US by 2013 to produce thin film solar panels. Most current solar modules are made with silicon wafers, but thin film solar panels use different materials that are less expensive and more flexible though not yet quite as efficient as silicon. Researchers are working at thin film technology every day.

GE researchers actually set a world record of 12.8% efficiency for thin film solar panels recently. GE invested in small thin film solar startup company, Primestar Solar, back in 2007. By 2010, the research activities were in full swing with a global team in the U.S., Germany, China and India researching and testing. GE fully expects to exceed the 12.8% mark when its commercial-scale factory opens in 2013. “14% to 15% is in the cards,” said Victor Abate at GE, who oversees solar, wind and renewable energy at the Fairfield, CT base.  Abate said that GE is confident that thin film solar has long-term advantages over other solar technologies.

GE is licensing the company eSolar’s technology using flat mirrors to concentrate sunlight to heat up water in a tank on a tower for steam; the steam runs a turbine and to generate electricity, with the design configuration such that each tower has 4MW capacity (at about 12% efficiency.) GE is using the technology in concert with natural gas for a hybrid power solution. The license is exclusive worldwide (except India and China) which also allows the construction of stand-alone thermal power plants. Solar plants cannot produce energy at night so using this technology allows power plants to cut the use of natural gas. “It’s critical for natural gas to pair well with renewable sources,” said Paul Browning, CEO of thermal products at GE Energy.

A few other projects to mention

This year, GE joined an alliance with other companies to develop the U.K. smart meter market, to help meet a government goal to install 53 million smart meters in homes and businesses by 2020. Last March, the U.K. government announced this plan to help cut electricity use and lower greenhouse emissions, which can ultimately save money. This may end up being a $6.2B market, reported Bloomberg news (June 22, 2011.)

LED lights are another interesting story at GE. Walmart engaged GE around the world for LED lighting systems inside and out. “The normally high costs of outdoor lighting can be turned into an energy efficiency bellwether for the company and the industry as a whole,” said Charles Zimmerman, VP at Walmart (GE website.) Lighting can take nearly one-third of a Walmart store’s energy consumption.  To start the project, Walmart made a 22 store in Puerto Rico – all stores now use GE’s LED lights for parking lots, which is expected to save up to 48% of the electricity use previously in place, less maintenance costs and bring a 10 year life, much longer than the traditional lighting that was used before. LED lights are also transforming the retailer’s displays indoors, and is expected to eventually transform the retail industry.

In an open letter to all on the GE website, Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Immelt and Mark Vachon, VP of ecoimagination, write that ecoimagination is working. It is, they say, GE’s business strategy to create new value by solving energy, efficiency and water problems through innovation.

In 2010, it has met each of the goals set including $5B of clean tech research investment, $85B in revenue from ecoimagination products, 30% reduction in water use and $130M in energy efficiency savings.  The company helped drive adoption of electric cars by purchasing 25,000 EVs and launching the WattStation chargers; and of course, it held the ecoimagination Challenge and helped launch 22 new ecoimagination products in 2010.

What are the GE ecoimagination goals set for the next five years?

According to Vachon and Immelt:

  • Double green-tech R&D investment to $10B
  • Grow ecoimagination revenue at twice the rate of GE revenues
  • Reduce energy intensity by 50% and greenhouse gas emissions by 25%
  • Reduce water use by 25%

What else does GE’s Immelt see on the horizon?

In a speech in Washington D.C. earlier this year, CEO Immelt weighed in on energy policy and business. He said, “Energy policy is controversial and it’s unlikely that the U.S. will lead. But how many times do we have to watch massive energy price volatility before we do something. I truly believe that the U.S. can achieve energy security through investment in energy infrastructure and R&D, and I also know we can create jobs through energy efficiency retrofit programs and other programs…”

We need, he continued, to “…improve the collaboration between government and business. History I think has proved the superiority of market economies where private initiative and individual choice are the great engines of progress. But business and government can work together to improve our competitiveness. Government should encourage business as it seeks to revitalize our manufacturing competitiveness with incentives for investing in R&D, opening new markets to our goods and trade agreements, and changing tax policies that discourage business from investing over-seas earnings back in the U.S.”

 All eyes will continue to follow GE.

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Q7prldEBpo&w=425&h=349]

Here’s the presentation — including the audio track — that I made to the Electric Vehicle Summit at the Biltmore Hotel in downtown Los Angeles last week.

In essence, my point is that, though I’m bullish on the EV adoption curve, and I’m excited that for once, the good guys have a chance to win big, there are several open questions. In particular, there are so many variables here that have the potential to turn the world upside down, that it seems a bit foolish to me to think that predictions that go out 40 years have any real meaning.

Having said that, EVs are vitally necessary to the well being of all of us. Sustainability (generally) can only come from national security, which requires energy security, which in turn requires weaning ourselves off of oil. And there are other imperatives as well:

Health: We spend $250 billion a year dealing with the lung damage caused by the inhalation of the aromatics of fossil fuels.

Peak oil. We’re running out of oil.

Long-term environmental damage: Global climate change and ocean acidification.

Yet I grant that EV naysayers have some good points:

Drivers demand absolute freedom, and will not deal well with range anxiety.

Consumers are risk-averse; no one wants to invest $30,000 in the automotive equivalent of the Betamax.

Most (though not all) consumers refuse to pay extra for a benefit that accrues to everyone (eco-friendliness).

Even if this weren’t the case, there is widespread confusion and apathy about the true ecological benefits. I’m astonished by the effectiveness of the PR team that has convinced a significant number of Americans that global climate change does not represent an important problem. Morally, they’re certainly not very upright people, but I have to respect their effectiveness.

So, how to promote EVs in the US? I would consider appealing to a sense of patriotism, as there is nothing one can do that is better for the strength of our country as a whole than ceasing our reliance on oil. Simultaneously, this would:

Reduce the power, and thus the threat, of terrorism,

Remove a great deal of the motivation for war, and

Stop the outflow of US cash to the tune of $1 billion per day.

In any case, I hope you’ll enjoy the presentation.

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