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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

For those who missed April’s webinar on electric vehicles, here’s a press release that hits a few of the highlights.

In a webinar attended by interested participants all over the world, Craig Shields presented his views on the business aspects of electric transportation. Shields began by noting the importance of the transition from a purely practical standpoint. “Energy consumption is closely tied to GDP,” he told listeners. “So, as long as we’re concerned about economic growth and stability – as long as we’re not returning to our roots as an agrarian or hunter/gatherer society, we’ll need to generate and consume more energy. This creates the imperative to do so wisely, and EVs will play a huge role here.”

Shields went on to discuss the other aspects of electric transportation that make it so attractive, especially national security and health issues.

Of course, consumers normally make purchases for selfish reasons, and so predicting a bullish EV adoption curve means believing that the EV industry will develop an attractive value proposition. Craig sees that as a reality. “I predict 10% penetration by 2020 – a $250 billion market. I know there are people who disagree. But 78% of Americans commute less than 40 miles a day. As oil prices rise – and remain obscenely high — the common man is going to be highly motivated to own a car that will never take a drop of gas.”

Craig acknowledged that predictions in this area are all over the map, but he pointed out that shifts like this happen very quickly in our society nowadays. “When was the last time you rented a video? Bought a CD? Technology has almost completely obsoleted these industries that were huge just a few years ago.”

When the audience was asked to submit questions, they came in torrents. Shields addressed as many as he could squeeze into the hour-long session.

Shields admits that there are a few interesting open issues that remain. Sure, we’re witnessing a huge, messy divorce between Big Auto and Big Oil, but don’t think that ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron, and so forth are going down without a fight. They’ll be around for many decades regardless of what happens. But they’re fighting hard to forestall the advent of EVs – and the renewable energy that will fuel them — to an ever-growing extent. “California’s Prop 23, which was funded almost exclusively by a few big oil companies, would have set the environmental movement back 30 years. Big Oil spent tens of millions of dollars promoting it, and it got about 47% of the popular vote. We came very close to extinguishing the entire push for clean air in this all-important state,” Shields said.

A key take-away from the webinar was the myriad types of businesses that will flourish as a result of the migration to electric transportation, including clean power generation, “telematics” (information services), smart-grid components, and billing services.

Of course, batteries are critically important. Shields continued: “As we achieve scale here, as we experience ongoing technology innovation, establish design standards, and remove cost from the supply chain, we’ll have battery costs at $300/kWh, which will enable EVs to be offered at terrifically attractive prices. Consumers will also see that corporate America is deploying EVs in bulk; I have to think people will be pretty impressed when they see large fleets owned by FedEx, Verizon, and Frito Lay and a dozen or so others. Sure, there are just so many early adopters. But soon you’ll see the pragmatists getting onboard.”

Craig closed with a few remarks about American Interest in Renewable Energy. “We feign concern about the national debt we’re leaving to our children, while borrowing an incremental $1 billion per day to buy foreign oil and sending it to regimes that are openly hostile of the US and its interests. We act like we’re concerned about unemployment, while ignoring the fact that the migration to clean energy will create three new jobs for every one that is lost. Expect to see this as a huge factor in the 2012 presidential election; Every credible candidate will have well-articulated (even if disingenuous) positions on the subject.”

Those wishing to view the archived webinar can do so here.  　

　

— Craig Shields is editor of 2GreenEnergy.com, and author of Renewable Energy – Facts and Fantasies (published by Clean Energy Press, 2010)

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Science

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released a FACT SHEET on March 30th in concert with the President’s speech.

First, the good news (in my opinion.) I tend to agree with the statements of the FACT SHEET in the section entitled “Innovating our way to a Clean Energy Future:”

Creating Markets for Clean Energy. The FACT SHEET concludes that in order to move capital off the sidelines and into the clean energy industry (which creates jobs), we need to give businesses and entrepreneurs certainty and a clear signal. The Clean Energy Standard (CES) aims to achieve 80% of our electricity from clean sources by 2034.  Bravo. Recognizing that businesses will not act in uncertainty, and setting a clear goal is commendable.

Cutting Energy Bills through Efficiency. Increasing efficiency is a given – conserve and use wisely what you do have.

Staying on the Cutting Edge through Clean Energy Research & Development.  The Department of Energy tells us that (more…)

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Sustainability

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoS8oCMeNMs&w=480&h=390]

In this episode of the 2GreenEnergy Video Report, I discuss a unique business opportunity: paper made not from trees, but from sugarcane waste. I’m referring, of course, about our relationship with our client Canefields USA, based in upstate NY.

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

I just got off the phone with John Aker, CEO of Aker-Wade Inc. in Charlottesville, VA, a leader in Level Three (fast-charging) solutions for electric vehicles. Obviously, the establishment of a solution for charging away from the home and workplace is a necessary condition to the widespread adoption of EVs. Until we can get a charge in about 15 minutes (preferably 10) that provides a range of a couple of hundred miles, there will always be a need for gas and diesel.

John’s solution, fast-charging (400 volts and 125 amps, or about 50 kilowatts) enables a Nissan Leaf owner to go from 20% state of charge to 80% in about 20 minutes. This is good, but he sees a day in the not-too-distant future in which batteries will improve and become larger, eliminating any need for gasoline-powered passenger cars.

From your lips to God’s ears, my friend.

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

No one believes that we’ll be driving Hummers in 100 years. Without a doubt, the world will eventually electrify transportation and replace gas and diesel as its fuel source. But exactly how will this process unfold?

By the way, this is not an academic question. Along the way, there are going to be plenty of hot business opportunities. But where exactly do they lie?

Each week we see the product announcements, the wild claims, and the editorials. We read the speculation on the EV adoption curve, a lot of which directly contradicts itself; some reports are euphoric, some cautious, others dismal. At the same time, we hear the rumors. Warren Buffet is heavily involved. And Bill Gates….

So what does all this mean? And again, even more important, where are the profit opportunities for people like you and me?

Let me call your attention to a special 68-page report that the editor-in-chief of EVWorld.com, Bill Moore just wrote. For the first time in the 13 years he’s been covering the industry, he’s offering bold predictions about specifically what will happen during the rest of 2011 and beyond from a financial perspective.

Bill traverses the globe, going to conferences, interviewing the top players in the industry. From his travels, he’s been able to piece together the most likely, critically important events that will shape the immediate EV future – and pave the way for you, if you’re interested, to profit handsomely from involvement with the right parties and the right times.

Bill’s report “The Top Trends Shaping The World Of Electric Vehicles in 2011 and Beyond” normally costs $395.00. But if you buy it before May 10, 2011, it’s yours for only $195 – a savings of more than 50%. And, if you’re not 100% satisfied with the level of scope and insight, we’ll provide you a complete, no-questions-asked refund. Click here to get the report:

The Top Trends Shaping The World Of Electric Vehicles in 2011 and Beyond

In “Top Trends Shaping The World Of Electric Vehicles in 2011 and Beyond,” Bill presents his take on the most probable winners (and losers). He does what he can to separate the truth from the fiction, and points to the few meaningful facts in a sea of trivialities and outright bull.

Here’s that link again:

The Top Trends Shaping The World Of Electric Vehicles in 2011 and Beyond

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Solar Thermal

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VY4p4x34Br4]

In this segment of the 2GreenEnergy Video Report, I cover concentrated solar power (CSP), aka solar thermal. It appears that one of our clients has made a real breakthrough in lowering costs and improving efficiencies.

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

If you’re involved in clean energy as a business, if you’d like to be a part of the multi-trillion dollar renewables industry, let me ask you this:  Do you ever wish you could establish win-win relationships with key business partners?  Your venture does not exist in a vacuum.  Wouldn’t it be great to develop the basic relationships you’ll ultimately need to succeed, teaming up with those who can provide a more complete, market-ready solution, product distribution — and perhaps additional investment capital?

Introducing Lindsay Oliver

Lindsay Oliver, a gentleman I came across late last year, has recently come onboard as a 2GreenEnergy associate.  Here’s a guy who’s made his life’s work establishing strategic business partnerships and joint ventures.  In his long and well-decorated career (more…)

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Biomass

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2S-lpnZVi4&w=480&h=390]

Here, I discuss a unique renewable energy business concept in the biomass to energy arena, involving construction and demolition waste.

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmWqERLtNYU]
For those who might have missed it, here is April’s webinar, in which I present some of my perceptions about the electric transportation industry, including my take on the most probably EV adoption curve.

Our energy consumption is closely tied to GDP. If we’re not going agrarian, if we’re concerned about shortages in energy, food, and water, EVs are 100% necessary.

National security requires energy security, and that requires weaning ourselves off oil. And there are other imperatives: health, peak oil, urban congestion, global climate change, and ocean acidification

Electric vehicles use electric motors, and batteries, capacitors, and fuel-cells.

They encompass all vehicle form-factors.

There are 230 million cars on US roads. Trucks contribute even more GHGs and other forms of pollution. Nay-sayers point to drivers’ demand for absolute freedom, risk aversion, the unwillingness to pay extra, and confusion and apathy about true ecological benefits. Global climate change deniers represent a PR miracle.

There is a huge market for EVs. The management form PRTM and I predict 10% penetration by 2020 — a $250 billion market.

There are 25 million multi-car households in single-family dwellings, with at least one car used for local commuting.
There is lots of low-hanging fruit.

There are natural limits to the adoption of EVs, e.g., Class 8 trucks, and aircraft. This
provides a large market for things like synthetic fuels for the foreseeable future.

The EV adoption curve is complicated, as supply affects demand, and demand affects supply.

There is a huge divorce between Big Auto and Big Oil. How happy is Big Auto? Ultimately, it doesn’t matter.

EV adoption faces many challenges, primarily offering the consumer an effective value proposition.

Regarding consumer adoption, here are the results of a consumer survey. The #1 reason for consumers to buy EVs is to save on gas. To what degree is consumer behavior affected by concerns for the environment?

Are EVs only applicable to a certain lifestyle? Are electric vehicles not for everyone?

I’m not sure. What happened to video rentals and CD sales?

Another point to be considered re: consumer adoption is patriotism.

If you’re concerns by things like terrorism, war, nations debt, the loss of international respect, admiration, and most of all, leadership, the replacement of internal combustion engines with EVs may be an important step in the right direction.
Do you remember what George C. Scott as General Patton said? America loves a winner and will not tolerate a loser.

Regarding the adoption of EVs, infrastructure is an issue. We need to be prepared to expect bottlenecks. There will be 400 EVs sold in San Diego in April, all with 220V charging systems, and all requiring SDG&E inspection. Customers are expecting 3 – 5 business day turn-around – all of whom will be disappointed.

Let’s explore the shifting total cost of ownership. In the old model, we had gasoline, and heavy maintenance. In the new world, we have electricity and services.

Telematics includes green routing, realtime traffic, battery monitoring, charge locations, interior preconditioning, and V2G information.

Let’s talk about business strategy – including the notion of a few tough realities. Is Carlos Ghosn for real?
No one on the “hardware” side has an incentive to push for the migration to EVs.
The OEMs and the dealers wish it were 1955.

OEMs of specialty EVs (e.g., tractors) wanting to sell through traditional dealers should think twice.

Here are a few other notes re: EV business strategy — a few more tough realities. Only niche-market strategies offer protection for start-ups. Some examples include Tomberlin, Emcycle, and EcoVElectric.
Other include e-scooters, enclosed e-bikes, and tandems.

I’ve reviewed many incredible business plans from entrepreneurs in this space. Do you want to get involved?
If so, there are numerous peripheral markets, including electricity generation, Smart-grid components, two-way communication between energy source and consumer, efficiency of consumption, demand response, and V2G.

Other opportunities lie in services, e.g., telematics, and billing.

Regaring billing services, note that this subject is totally up in the air. Suppose I live in France but I work in Germany or Belgium. Or suppose I live in Santa Barbara but I’m visiting a friend in Los Angeles. How do I pay for my charge?

Other issues in billing services include the idea of pre-paying. This does not enable CRM, which is awkward and time-consuming for the customer,

You can opt for post-pay, which enables CRM, but there are credit risks, and the expenses incurred in billing and customer service.

In either case, an issue is integration. An example of this is Easy Pass.

The charger lies between the grid and the EV. There are half a dozen or so charger manufacturers that perform grid connect. load balancing, smart charge, and certified/authenticated charge.

More chargers mean happier drivers. But how much are they used?

Batteries are improving steadily. There is no magic bullet, but with scale, technology innovation, design standards, vertical integration (BYD), and the steady removal of cost from the supply chain, we should achieve $300/kWh.

Other charging solutions include
Better Place and fast-charging.

Charging, done at home and in semi-private locations (e.g., workplace) will account for 70%+ for at least the next 10 years.

What I see in the years 2011 – 2015 includes EV sales to early adopters, and to fleets, like FedEx, Verizon, Frito Lay. This will show the world that EVs are ready to go.

What I see I the years 2016 – 2020 include the pragmatists getting onboard, and real evidence of hockey-stick growth curve.

What I see in the years 2021 – 2030 is rapid and smooth EV adoption. This is because EV powertrains are pure technology. To what degree does Moore’s Law apply?

I think we need to keep our eyes on France because of their:

Clean power (so EVs make a real difference)
Top-down public sector backing in all aspects (especially charging infrastructure)
Aggressive investments from the private sector
Active solicitation of business relationships with partners worldwide
Sophisticated/enlightened citizenry that prides itself in leadership
Smaller footprint (less than 1/10th the size of the continental US)

We should expect s surprise announcement from Toyota because:

They will cease resting on the laurels of the Prius
Toyota’s current plans for the plug-in Prius are a yawn
Their drive train is the worst of all worlds

I expect to see a heightened interest in renewable energy because of the:

Gulf spill, Japan, and gas prices

People are waking up, realizing that we in the US :

Have no energy policy, much less a federal RPS (renewable portfolio standard).

Offer only lip service in COP meetings like Copenhagen and Cancun.

Subsidize oil and coal at 12 times the rate we do renewables.

Heightened Interest in Renewable Energy

Scrupulously ignore the numerous externalities of fossil fuels

Feign concern about the national debt we’re leaving to our children

Act like we’re concerned about unemployment

Warmly embrace the behavior of an oil industry that employs 7000 lobbyists whose job is to extract favors

In the 2012 presidential election, every credible candidate will have a sane and workable position on the subject. Most will be disingenuous.

We won’t have a true democracy as long as Citizen’s United vs. FEC is in place
See www.MoveToAmend.org

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by craigshieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

I haven’t spent too much time covering the many progressive/activist groups in the renewable energy space. But it’s worth noting that Power Shift 2011 was successful in organizing more than 10,000 people who converged in Washington, DC, this past week. As reporter Amy Goodman noted, environmentalist and author Bill McKibben told his audience in a rallying speech:

“This city is as polluted as Beijing. But instead of coal smoke, it’s polluted by money. Money warps our political life, it obscures our vision […] We know now what we need to do, and the first thing we need to do is build a movement. We will never have as much money as the oil companies, so we need a different currency to work in, we need bodies, we need creativity, we need spirit.”

We tend to look at folks who are bold enough to take to the streets like this as the “fringe,” and discount their effect. But I’m reminded of what Henry Kissinger said recently (which I paraphrase):

“We got to the point that the protesters had convinced the common American that the Vietnam war was wrong. And that is what ended the war. If that hadn’t happened, we’d still be there.”

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