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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

PhotobucketI’m headed for San Jose, CA this week for the annual Plug-In show. Like virtually every other event in the green space, these events get bigger and more exciting each year. Now, with the advent of the Nissan Leaf and dozens of other EVs from major manufacturers right on its heels, I expect quite a large and enthusiastic crowd.

I’ve written several articles over the past couple of years on the EV adoption curve as I predict it will happen, and I freely admit that my position is at odds with a great number of other industry observers. Maybe I’m missing something, but I see no major bumps and unaddressable challenges. Here are a few items for your consideration:

Consumer Demand. Will consumers rebuke the change from internal combustion engines (ICEs)? Sure, some will, for a short period of time. There were people who thought horseless carriages were the work of Satan in the early 20th Century. I’m sure there will be holdouts – for any of a dozen reasons. But who cares? Consumer acceptance will far outstrip the gradually increasing supply.

Note the two major pressures that will be exerted on consumers:

Gas prices. There are people, believe it or not, who care not one whit for anyone in the world except themselves and their immediate families. But even Hummer drivers will run to EVs when gas prices spike back up.

Peers. Imagine that you’re a fence sitter, and your next-door neighbor starts zipping around in a cool, high-torque, low-cost, near-zero-maintenance car with no tailpipe whose fuel costs him the equivalent of gasoline at $0.60 per gallon. I predict that simply seeing such a vehicle and talking to its owner will be a powerful motivating force in the direction of an EV.

Infrastructure. Will charging infrastructure be inadequate? This is a more complicated issue, but again, the answer is essentially no. It’s true that early EV adopters will need to plan their trips more carefully than ICE drivers, and that EVs – for the foreseeable future, will not be right for everyone, e.g., those few who rely on one vehicle to make frequent trips out of town. But for most, charging at home is not a problem — and soon charging at the workplace, shopping centers, and movie theaters will be ubiquitous.

So what about EVs on long trips? That will have to wait. But we’re replacing 230 million cars on US roads; that won’t happen overnight either.

Readiness of the Utilities. Will power utilities we able to cope with the increased demand for electricity? Yes. Most EVs will be charged at night with off-peak power that is of no value anyway. The increase in daytime power consumption will be very slow.

Shortages. Will there be shortages of lithium and other elements critical to the EV supply chain? I predict not. We haven’t really started looking for lithium. We didn’t think there was oil in the Earth’s crust either – until we started to look for it. Unfortunately, we found it, extracted it, and burned it. And now far better informed people than I are worried about uranium shortages because our civilization is concerned that we won’t be able to build enough nuclear reactors.  Wow. 

Cavalier Dismissal? Am I just trivializing important issues? Could be. But I’m betting I’m right.

In any case, I’ll hope to see you at the show — check it out here.  As always, if you happen to be there and would like to say hello, please let me know; just hit contact.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Science

A reader named Mark writes on my piece about nuclear power, in which I favor solar thermal and point out the dangers of further nuclear development:

Energy and power sources/systems are complex topics. They encompass national and international political factors, human health factors, economic considerations, fuel source/feedstock considerations, and more.

I believe a diverse portfolio is desirable. As a human diet that is diverse (balanced) contributes to human health, a diverse portfolio of energy and power sources reduces overall risks greatly, from a number of perspectives. Problem is, most individuals or groups are motivated by some form of self-interest. Yours happens to be solar. Others favor nuclear and so on. ….. Until the power of special interests is reduced substantially, we likely will continue to land on the wrong squares. Unfortunately each human mind is its own “special interest”.

This is a terrifically astute comment.  I particularly love: Unfortunately each human mind is its own “special interest.”   You’ve touched not only on the energy industry but on the human condition itself; thanks so much for writing.

And you are so correct. We spend most of our mental lives trying to confirm our hypotheses about ourselves and the world around us — and almost no time looking for clues that may disconfirm these beliefs — a pursuit that would have been so much more productive. And I’m a living laboratory; I think of myself as a person strong enough to accept even the harshest criticism, but I have to admit that everytime I open an email from a stranger I hope it expressed approval of my ideas.

Having said all this, I’m not convinced that your analogy is perfectly valid. The idea that a balanced human diet leads to health does not imply that a balance of energy generation technology leads to sustainability. You wouldn’t suggest that a human diet that should include even trace amounts of cyanide. Likewise, I submit there are modes of energy generation that are simply unhealthy for humans and other living things.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

This is our 500th post.  I wanted to use it to thank our clients, our guest bloggers, and our many thousands of subscribers — a large percentage of whom add fantastic and insightful comments and help make this a lively and interesting conversation.   Special thanks to our business manager George Alger, financial guru Bill Paul, and to each of the 2GreenEnergy Associates for their extraordinary talents and support of the renewables industry.  A world of appreciation from me to you, for the outstanding contributions you make every day.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Biomass

Ever hear of a “Croton?” You know, the oil-bearing tree, indigenous to Tanzania? How familiar are you with babassu?

Don’t be ashamed if you’ve never heard of either. Besides the two people who brought me business plans that promote biomass-to-energy projects using the fruits of these two exotic trees, I’ve yet to run into a single person who’s ever heard of either one.

The former bears nuts about the size of walnuts; the latter, found primarily in another but equally wild part of the world (northeastern Brazil), provides something akin to a small coconut. Harvesting neither affects the world food supply, and both have characteristics that make them very attractive for biomass feedstock. Suffice it to say that 2GreenEnergy is a great place to work if you want to learn about life forms that you would have been extremely unlikely to come across in any other way.

More to the point, the people forwarding these two business plans are both fantastic human beings — engaged on incredible missions. Want a great experience? Talk to Joe Scali of African Biofuels and ask him about his plans for the Croton — actually Croton megalocarpus (locally called muhihi). This tree grows robustly in semi-arid climates on marginal lands, produces 25-50 kg seeds annually with 32% oil content. In a few minutes, you’ll get a background on a magnificent project — one that actually will, I’m completely convinced, provide a positive (if perhaps a bit longer-term than some) return on investors’ money. And you’ll be more than a little bit tuned into the what’s happening in Tanzania with respect to renewable energy.

The people of Third World countries contribute far less per capita to the production of greenhouse gases and other pollutants than those in developed nations. But they contribute far more per Watt-hour of energy consumed, since their access to energy tends to be rather low-tech, e.g., cooking over open wood fires.

So, for anyone wishing to make a difference, let me ask you, does it make more sense to improve the MPG rating of the cars we Americans drive a few percent, or eliminate 90+% of noxious emissions that come from the way of life of an equal number of Africans? If you’re interested, go to the African Biofuels website, and talk to Joe. Tell him Craig sent you.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

Below is a link to a piece I wrote recently for Renewable Energy World in which I attempt to explain President Obama’s falling approval ratings. In it, I point out that, although his administration has been hamstrung with compromises from Congress whose end products are garbled, wrong-headed trash that wind up pleasing no one, he has been far more effective than its predecessors in supporting the development of clean energy. (more…)

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

There’s a lot to like about GE’s design (announced just the other day) for their electric vehicle charging station. It looks cools, offers “Level 2” (240 Volt) charging, and provides its customers with “future-proofing,” easily swapping in new technology when it becomes available.

But the most important feature GE’s product is that it exists at all. As I reported in my piece Tough Realities for Renewable Energy Businesses, I urge people to look at the actions of Fortune 25 companies as indications of the underlying truth in the world – and this is a fabulous example. A company with revenues of $157 billion is extremely unlikely to make a commitment to a product space whose revenues will come from a small minority of tree-huggers. This announcement is further evidence that the public and private sectors and moving very quickly – in lock-step with one another – to move electric transportation ahead.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Science

Perhaps foolishly, I try to keep an open mind about “inventions” that are tantamount to perpetual motion machines.  Having said that, when I run across people who claim to have invented one — and who want to show it to me — (which happens every few weeks), I tell them in advance that they need to show me a working model, and solid proof that what I’m seeing is real. 

Yesterday’s encounter was a classic example of how these turn out.  I set up a meeting (which wasn’t inconvenient, as it was on my way to the beach with the kids) on the basis that I could be shown clearly that the device (which I can’t describe because I signed a non-disclosure agreement) generates more power than it consumes.  Instead, I saw a device consuming power, and generating some — the comparison between the two quantities entirely lacking. 

“This doesn’t demonstrate what you claimed,” I told the guy. 

“Oh don’t worry about that,” he replied, “That will be clear in what we’re working on now.  All we need is a couple of million dollars from our investors, and we’ll have it within a few weeks.” 

“Sorry.  I won’t be participating.  Best of luck.”

I think we need to be open to ideas that lie outside of our paradigms.  I also think that we need to the hold the bar quite high re: credibility.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Science

I love to be productive on the weekends.  And so, when I was invited to see a demonstation of a new energy-related invention today, I jumped at the chance. 

Making the whole experience more interesting: from its description, it sounds like a perpetual motion machine.  A friend of the inventor said he could explain it to me over the phone.  “Oh no,” I responded.  “I don’t want to hear about it; I want to see it.  If the guy’s defied the laws of physics, that’s worth a trip across town to see any day.” 

So who knows?  I’ll check in with you later.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEbVFbose1g&w=445&h=364]

Lance Miller, president of clean diesel start-up DieselTek discusses the harmony between the company’s managers and its investors. In my experience, this is commonly a sticking point for fledgling organizations, where investors want to make a quick filling, drive to a liquidity event, e.g., an IPO or a merger with a publicly traded organization, and get out. This often contrasts with the intention of managers who may a deep and abiding passion for the subject, and may wish to make it their life’s work.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

Here’s another interesting article on liquid ammonia as fuel. The author, Dr. Paul A. Curto, a retired NASA scientist residing in Potomac, MD, has a wonderfully lucid writing style. Give me a Ph.D. who writes like a real person any day!

My only issue here — and it’s a criticism of myself as well, as I’ve done this many times personally — is the statement that liquid ammonia will create 30 million jobs. That’s not incorrect, per se, but it fails to address the question: Who’s going to hire these people? The government? Some blend of the public and private sectors? Why? By what mechanism can we create an environment in which there will be sufficient incentive for the private sector to embrace ammonia with a full-on commitment?

The answer, of course, goes back to the old “internalizing the externalities” argument. Until we, as a civilization, pay the full and true costs of the carbon-based energy we’re producing and consuming, there is no reason on Earth to considering any other solution. But making that happen is a political impossibility. How far we are away from looking at this issue fairly? The EPA and the DoE don’t even list ammonia as a fuel — that’s should give you some idea.

Having said all this, I think we need to agree that the Obama administration has really opened things un in terms of renewable energy. Obama’s popularity is falling — due, I believe,  to the horrible compromises that have left no one happy: shoddy, half-way healthcare reform, ineffective financial reform, and a foreign policy that no one could possibly like. But a great number of new conversations — and even investments — are happening in the energy space that never, ever would have taken place a few years ago.

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