Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy Sources – Some Business Considerations
I often think about how the energy industry’s financial analysts view the fundamentals that apply to market valuations. Just now, I was reading some of the discussion at SeekingAlpha.com on ExxonMobil that attempts to get to the underlying buy/sell recommendations, and I note that the conversation is fairly bullish across the board.
In particular, though there is widespread agreement that the “easy oil is gone,” there is almost no recognition of a concerted move to get off of oil as a civilization. Moreover, the concept of “peak oil” (i.e., that the supply of oil will soon start to diminish) means that the price will soar, and that only companies with the scale of ExxonMobil (vs. the wildcatters of yore) will have the capability to play effectively. But there is precious little talk of the impact of electric transportation, or renewable energy in any of its forms.
I’m trying to figure out what that means. Here are a few points of speculation: (more…)