One of my golden rules of alternative-energy investing is that, if you want to make money, you’ve to think globally, especially since the US is still out to lunch in formulating policy for a clean-tech energy economy. In two months in Brazil, the government will award contracts for 339 new wind-power farms and 79 other renewable energy projects that will generate a whopping 14,529 MW of electricity. The winning bidders will make a lot of money.
Curt writes:
… Though I have my political opinions, which (thankfully) have evolved over the years – I’m more interested in not knowing the political opinions of people as it can create tension in progressing together towards a common cause of better energy technology making it to the market place. …. Is personal politics going to be a unpleasant but necessary ‘evil’ we must be prepared to deal with? …. I’m here to learn and reply to others opinions on this and future topics.
Thanks so much for writing, Curt. You bring up some really neat points in your much longer and wonderfully astute comments to my piece on John Paul Stevens that I’ve excerpted above.
First, let me point out that I think long and hard before entering my personal politics into the discussion — and for the exact reason you mentioned. Also, I’m completely through bashing the (GW) Bush administration. My rancor on this subject was enhanced by my interviewing 25 people for my book on renewables, most of whom were themselves pretty rancorous about the effects of those years. But carrying on like this is hitting a man when he’s down, and tacitly embracing one form of unseemly power politics while condemning another.
However, I want to point out that it’s impossible to add insight into the migration to renewables while ignoring the politics surrounding the energy industry. Government plays an enormously important role in our energy policy – even it’s just to maintain the status quo, by offering up countless billions of dollars in subsidies to the oil, gas, and coal companies. I know that my own politics – or anyone’s politics for that matter – are going to rankle some people — but I’m afraid there’s nothing I can do about that. I’ll just try to be fair-minded, call ‘em like I see ‘em, and, as always, vigorously and honestly encourage divergent points of view. I’ve never censored a comment regardless of hard its author slapped me, and I don’t plan to make any changes in that policy.
Thanks again for writing. I’m glad you’re here.
New report from Ernst & Young’s Global Automotive Center finds that 60% of Chinese consumers say they would consider buying a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. That’s a much bigger percentage than in the US, and is further evidence that China, not the US, will lead the plug-in revolution. That’s bad news for US car- and car-battery makers, and great news for their Chinese counterparts. Warren Buffett’s investment in BYD is looking better and better.
Brokerage RJ Energy Group out with a new report this morning. Its conclusion: North Sea oil production “has peaked for good.” This fits into the bigger picture of declining non-OPEC oil production. Our world has two choices: depend even more on OPEC or develop alternative energy sources. Which do you think we should choose?
If you have even the remotest level of interest in investing in the trillion dollar renewable energy market – now, or any time in the future – don’t miss this 60-minute session, Tuesday, May 11th, 10 AM PDT (1 PM EDT).
Often referred to as “The Indiana Jones of Alternative Energy Investing,” Bill Paul’s 20 years as staff writing covering the energy industry for the Wall Street Journal uniquely positions him to comment on the details of this fast-moving industry.
If these ideas mean anything to you – or to your friends and family, don’t miss this 60-minute discussion as we provide critical insight into the independent investigations that Bill has conducted over the past few months — including insight into the following:
♦ Why clean tech will be the third largest industry on Earth by 2020, with revenues of over $2.3 trillion.
♦ The true underlying factors that drive growth in alternative energy.
♦ The types of alternative energy companies that are most likely to be acquired in the coming 12 months.
♦ The type of companies that are too small to be acquired by the Fortune 50, but that are set for share-price growth of a minimum of 100% in the next 6 months.
♦ How the rapid migration to alternative energy affects the value of companies outside of the traditional energy sector: transportation, AEC (architecture, engineering and construction), chemicals, etc.
If there is time (or if you email in your questions during the webinar), we will also cover the following:
♦ How post-Kyoto-Treaty carbon-trading in Europe; the Obama Administration in the US; the explosive growth of India and China; and world’s reactions to global climate change are affecting the growth of alternative energy.
♦ How the adoption of renewable energy is causing huge changes in the value of dozens of different previously overlooked items: waste wood, garbage, etc.
♦ Exactly why is Warren Buffett investing so aggressively in alternative energy? Where precisely is he going with this?
Bill told me when they first met at a meeting over lunch. “I review 75-100 different streams of information from all over the world – seven days a week.”
I knew this guy wasn’t just anybody before the waiter had brought the iced tea. And by the time I had located by salad fork, I had heard about the most likely M&A targets, the companies whose stock value was most likely to double, and how what Bill calls ‘new energy’ was causing volatility in stock markets in some pretty far-flung places around the globe. I was blown away. You will be too. Don’t miss it. Here’s that link again. Talk to you then.
Frequent guest blogger Arlene Allen notes that there are demographic groups that will embrace sustainability differently. She points out…
There are financially secure people who can afford anything, and will simply buy an electric car when they want one, …. vs. the 30-40% of the total population and has been getting worse as the distribution of wealth continues its modern adjustment upward.
I’m not a social scientist, and thus I don’t know exactly how to weigh in on this. Having said that, I’m not sure it breaks down along the lines of affluence. In fact, I see all kinds of factors pointing in various different directions, for example:
Wealthy people don’t generally lead the adoption curve for altruistic behavior, and
The underclass often purchases things they can’t afford, like expensive gym shoes
I believe sustainable solutions will come into place when the cost-benefit becomes obvious to everyone at all levels of the socio-economic spectrum. And fortunately, this seems to be right around the corner. The key elements of this cost-benefit calculus appear to be
I was out with my kids just now, and my teenage son asked me: “Dad, who are your competitors in the 2GreenEnergy stuff you’re doing?” That’s an interesting question – certainly a natural one when wanting to know more about a business. And there certainly are a great number of players in this space — just Google phrases with words like “clean, green, alternative, business, biz, sustainable renewable energy …” — and stand back.
But strangely, I don’t think any of us consider the others to be “competitors” in any meaningful way. To me, the existence of myriad websites in this space — each with its own focus and slant — supports the notion that this is an enormous playing field with unlimited room for new other ideas — and new places for people to share good ideas.
I’ve noticed that discussions of sustainability generally boil down to cost, e.g.:
1) Do the additional costs of green products pass muster with consumers?
2) Should the government take us further into debt to fund green R&D and to create incentives?
3) Can we “internalize the externalities,” i.e., get people to pay the true costs of the what they’re doing?
I would suggest a different approach — one taken by people like the Biomimicry Institute, who point out that learning from nature actually decreases costs — even if you don’t look at the long-term. Teaming with Ethical Impact, we at 2GreenEnergy are putting together as series of webinars for corporate sustainability folks that will lay out the net business advantages of learning from nature — a system that has been solving design problems quite effectively and efficiently — and incorporates a vision of what the environment needs to be like 10,000 generations hence.
The series will lay out:
• What business leaders can learn from natural systems and processes — as well as how they can do that
• The process by which business leaders can extract themselves from old-line thinking, and begin to think like the planet
• A set of paradigm-breaking exercises that stimulate new visions for business products, services, and processes — each inspired by 3.7 billion years of evolution
How does that sound?
Here’s the continuation of my article yesterday on China’s energy picture.
One African official said back in 2006 that negotiating with the Chinese may take longer, but they can pressure China more because they are desperate for resources. Another official said, “The U.S. will talk to you about governance, about efficiency, about security, about the environment. The Chinese just ask ‘How do we procure this license?’”. (CNN Money, “China’s appetite for African oil grows”, by Vivienne Walt (Fortune). Feb 15, 2006).
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Here are a few shots of Sam Smith and me during a recent interview for cable TV.
