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Craig,
I just read ‘The Three Brass Tacks’.
There are always unforeseen changes that make a difference in markets. We see that environmental consciousness has made a huge difference in the hybrid car market.
I agree that there is a coming rise in gasoline prices that will help push the EV market.
I believe that two potential technologies may help make EV’s improve their marketability.
All the big car companies have been working on carbon fiber technologies that will drastically lower the weight of vehicles. When this technology becomes cost competitive with steel (which may well be accelerated by the coming rise in steel prices which were at a record high before the recession) the fuel economy of every vehicle will rise. Especially for EV’s this lowering in weight will greatly extend the range making them more attractive.
As thin film PV’s get lower in price and the technology for painted PV coatings comes closer to production, the potential for adding a coating of PV to EV’s will help on the range issue during daylight (when most driving gets done). Imagine your car charging itself while you are at work.
The fact that smaller manufacturers can think outside the box and improvise quicker gives them a big advantage in capturing a rapidly changing market.
There are also amazing advances in capacitor storage of electricity that may surpass batteries as the preferred storage medium for electricity.
The key is to challenge engineers to innovate and then watch what happens.
Dependence on cheap oil caused engineers and chemists to create solutions using petroleum as a starting point. Once they got out of that mindset, more sustainable options were found.
I like the Apollo Alliance as an organization that asks us to make a national agenda that is based on sustainability. They use the Apollo program as an example of how much we can achieve when we set an ambitious national agenda. Kennedy aimed for us to get to the moon in ten years and we got there in nine! A national agenda of achieving a sustainable energy future will produce innovation we can not imagine.
Test
It is said that investors are unwilling to mass produce the lifepo4 battery (the best EV battery to date) because a newer tech might make it obsolete. I disagree because the led acid (even though almost useless as an EV battery) is still heavily invested in.
We don’t have time to look for something better. Therefore, if a corporation can figure out a way to make this newer version of the li-ion battery as cheap or cheaper than led acid, it will “always be a hit”!
I highly doubt that there are not sufficient quantities of the element needed in the Earth’s crust to make this so on an ever exponentiating level…
This, then would give RE the ability of exponentiation and even “powering” a V2G setup.
We were contemplating obtaining some solar panels for our residence recently. The only problem was the price. The least expensive system we identified was around ten thousand bucks. It would have taken us decades to make back that amount. At any rate, we happened across these recommendations for making your own solar panels. We ended up going that way. It saved us quite a bit of money, and the totally free, environmentally friendly power is great!
We operate several of our appliances off this grid.
Speaking of environment friendly energy, my son and I built a free power power generator last month going off of this design. It was actually quite simple to make, despite the fact that I’m hardly a mechanically inclined person. It is really cool. We bring it camping and utilize it to run our compact devices. As opposed to solar power systems, this thing appears to function cloudy or shine.