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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

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What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?  This paradox is most often discussed in the context of God’s omnipotence (“Can God create a stone so heavy it cannot be lifted, not even by God Himself?”).

I’m reminded of this ancient philosophic conundrum when I contemplate the future of the energy industry. The “Conference of Parties” (COP-15) summit is now only a  little more than a month away. . . and world-renowned economists are calling for it to create a market worth $1 trillion. . . per year. . . for decades. And to me, trillion dollar markets call to mind the notion of an force that is certainly very large indeed, if not irresistible.

Yet if there were ever an immovable object, it would be the traditional energy industry, dominated as it is by oil and coal.

I presume there are at least a few truly progressive, independent and honest people in Washington who are trying to stand up on our behalf against the force of the fossil fuel industries. Yet they are utterly powerless to defend us from the atrocities of these corporate giants. Want proof? We just came through eight years of an administration that consistently voted against funding of the development of lithium-ion batteries, against fuel efficiency standards, against mandates on renewable portfolios, against enhanced geothermal, and against the extension of tax credits for renewables. Looking for an immovable object? You just found one.

I know that sounds pessimistic, though my aim is not to depress readers. I don’t think of myself as a cynic; I think of myself as a pragmatist. And it’s that spirit of pragmatism that provides the motivation by which I write on this blog every day and spend a few hours on my book on renewables; it’s really all I can do to inform and, I hope, to inspire readers to get involved themselves.

In any case, I suppose we’re all about to see what happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

Here is guest blogger Mike Brace’s letter to his representative Geoff Davis (R-KY) on the Obama Administration’s choice of projects that received funding in this round under ARPA-E.  You’ll notice that he shares the many of the same sentiments that I wrote about yesterday.

 

 

Hon. Geoff Davis,

Geoff, I don’t know if you were aware of it but the DoE, ARPA-E has selected their grant recipients for this last round of funding and (to put it bluntly) you, I, the state of Kentucky and almost every American taxpayer got screwed.

If you recall, you wrote a well-versed letter on our behalf to ARPA-E expressing support for our hydrokinetic project, one of which is specifically designed to generate literally millions and millions of kilowatts based on the run-of-river current flow in the Ohio River. We all thought our technology to be a good fit for this ARPA-E grant of which I speak (DE-FOA-0000065) as it was specifically set up to do three things:

•           Reduce GHG and Carbon emissions

•           Enhance energy security

•           Restore science and technology leadership to the private sectors of America.

More specifically, none of this was to be done within the halls of our national federally funded laboratories, it was supposed to wean us off burning fossil fuels over due time, and (most importantly) it was to support technology that creates a lot of jobs and in a timely manner (24 to 36 months). This was spelled out in black and white so to that end we spent a great deal of personal time and money to apply for this grant.

With the exception of about $30M, none of this ARPA-E grant neither funded technology that is even remotely aligned with these goals, or (for the small share that they did fund) they gave the lion’s share to universities, gas/oil/car companies (or to national laboratories) all of which are already very well funded and shouldn’t have to ask for this kind of funding in the first place. It begs to be asked: what have they been doing for the last 20 years if not this?

I have attached the published list of recipients for the $151M that was given out for your review, and you can map out the distributions any number of ways, but I can break it out as follows:

Directly (or indirectly) a lot of the funded was divided up as follows:

•           $43M directly to universities (none in KY; and if you think that this amount will create in-so-much-as one additional job in this country think again)

•           $27.3M to Gas, Oil or Automotive companies (none in KY)

•           $15M to national DoE funded labs (none in KY)

Then, contrary to what they said they wanted to fund, most of the dollars were allocated to the following technologies:

•           $41.4M to Biomass fuels/technologies (which has no hope of displacing oil on a national level, still propagates internal combustion engines AND does not burn GHG or Carbon free)

•           $33.3M to Advance Battery Technology/Energy Storage (even if it offers any hope of being “transformational” none of them has a prayer of getting out of the lab in 36 months, not a one. And, aren’t we funding these already through other means?)

•           $15M to Building Efficiency/Technologies (I can’t help but ask “what’s transformational about that?” And who benefits? The power companies? The consumers? Public rates have never gone down despite the incredible amount of conserving already being done. Who are we helping?)

•           $11M to 5 different Carbon Capture projects (not a penny to KY or W VA, and [worst yet] this does nothing to reduce GHG or Carbon emissions, it only makes it worse. In the end it only stashes this problem away for our grandkids to figure out a way to deal with it.)

•           $10.2M to Gas/Oil/Automotive companies and their affiliates (didn’t the US Government already give them funds to help them become more ‘transformational’? How did these even get in there?)

Of the $151M handed out, only about $9.0M went to truly transformational technology, through private companies and towards technology that can possibly be mainstreamed in less than 36 months. Sadly, only $21M went to Wind, Solar and Geothermal energy technologies. Besides geothermal energy (which is spotty at best and not very scalable) none of these others can claim the peak performance power generation 24/7/365 that hydropower can. But here is the part I don’t understand: Not a dime went to hydropower or hydrokinetic technologies. Not one dime. (And I know that, besides ours, there were several others on the table worth considering.) We were very dissapointed in that fact.

Geoff, ARPA-E did announce that they will come out with another round of requests for funding proposals and [rest assured] that if we qualify for what they are asking for, we will pursue them as well, so please let this letter serve as a heads-up as a request for further support (if we need it). But, as someone desperately trying to believe in our government, and the choices that it makes for the welfare of its citizens, our group feigns to find anything good to say about this gross misuse of trust in those trying to make America a world leader in clean energy and advanced ‘transformative’ technology. We had so hoped it wasn’t going to turn out as it had. We are upset; you should be too.

A friend,

Mike Brace
Partner, EV World & Assoc, LLC
techeditor@evworld.com

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

I must say that I’m disappointed in this list of clean energy projects that the Obama Administration is funding with its stimulus money under ARPA-E. I use the word disappointed, a considerable understatement, insofar as I promised some of my colleagues that I wouldn’t make a big scene on this issue.

The list seems to contain very little that we were hoping for, and were told that it would feature, i.e., transformative technologies in replacing fossil fuels that would offer near-term results in the real world.

What we see in huge supply are:

Biofuels. This is a poor idea that doesn’t scale well. Even if it were a good way to go, there is no way to create biofuels in sufficient volume to make a meaningful difference in replacing oil. And, as I’ve often asked, why continue to burn hydrocarbons? If we’re going to clean up our processes of generating and consuming energy, why not choose processes that don’t release CO2 and other noxious compounds?

Clean Coal. The processes of sequestering the offending outputs of burning coal are expensive, and riddled with technical issues. Can’t someone stand up to the coal industry and say no to this incredible waste of money and time?

Projects given to government laboratories and universities. Both are known for glacier-like progress through intractable bureaucracies.

What we see little of are the technologies that actually replace fossil fuels and offer the promise of clean energy, like hydrokinetics, solar thermal, geothermal, etc. As I point out in my upcoming book on renewables, there are many fantastic ideas that are already proven within these arenas, the progress of which could be greatly accelerated with funding.

Those of you with naughty kids know what I mean with the term disappointed. Sometimes the best response to misbehavior is not anger; it’s an appeal to a sense of shame. Of course, that implies the possibility of a sense of shame; there are those who say that the corruption in the process is so complete that the perpetrators are incapable of that emotion. I won’t take a stand on that; I simply repeat: Guys, I’m really disappointed in you.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Science

PhotobucketOccasionally readers take me to task for glossing over the important concepts of the day, leaving people to research for themselves the terms that I bandy about as if they were household words. Ocean acidification is a good example. Yet I am by no means an expert on this, and so I can do little more than to point readers to any of the hundreds of articles that have been written on the subject. Here, e.g., is the Wikipedia treatment.

In essence, rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere causes more CO2 to be absorbed into the oceans, which in turn causes a complicated set of (mostly) unwanted chemical reactions, most directly the formation of carbonic acid. This affects the survival of calcifying organisms, damaging corals, shellfish, and many other lifeforms that maintain the delicate balance that is the ocean ecosystem.

What makes this phenomenon of particular importance is the fact that it is not disputed. As discussed in my upcoming book on renewables, Big Oil is working hard to obfuscate the global warming issue. However, there is no doubt whatsoever that rising levels of CO2 in our atmosphere are causing long-term environmental damage. Thus ocean acidification renders moot any controversy that the oil companies are working so hard to generate about global warming.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

PhotobucketThe 2009 “Business of Plugging In” conference also featured a great deal of discussion on the readiness of the utilities to support EVs. Although some people were horribly cautionary and indicated that this was a major impediment, a few key speakers cleared the matter up nicely:

EV’s are generally charged at off-peak periods when the power is usually discarded anyway. (Approximately half the electrical energy generated each day is wasted because it is not used and cannot be stored cost-effectively.) The opportunity to sell power that is otherwise thrown away provides additional revenue for the utilities at very little cost, which is, of course, a help rather than a hindrance.

Most people initially will charge at 110 volts and 15 amps.  This is the power of a hair dryer, and will put very little strain on the grid.  Only over time will a sizeable percentage of people upgrade to more robust chargers that will shorten the time necessary to charge their cars.  But one astute person asked, “If you start charging your car at 11 PM, how important is it to you that’s it’s fully charged by 1 AM?”  This slow migration to fast charging will provide ample time for the utilities to prepare.

Most of the audience came away with the (fortunately correct) idea that there is a natural fit between the development of the EV, the grid, and the increasing adoption/demand rate of EVs that we see from the consumer.  None can proceed without the other two.  Yet there seems to be a unforced harmony between the growth of each one. 

And here’s another piece of good news from the conference.  One elderly corporate speaker said to a standing-room-only break-out session of about 400 people, “We had EV conferences like this one a few years ago, and we were lucky to have 10 people in the room.  Take a second and look around.”

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

PhotobucketConsidering all the writing I’ve done on the EV adoption curve over the past 18 months or so, I was interested in the immense amount of discussion on the subject at the “Business of Plugging In” conference in Detroit earlier this week. Here are a few comments, for what they’re worth.

I noted a great deal of speculation about “range anxiety,” i.e., dread of running out of charge away from home or a charging station. There is no doubt in my mind that, until opportunity charging can be made fast, convenient and ubiquitous — a process that will certainly require many decades — there will be some people who will cling fast to their gasoline-powered cars (at least until the demand for gas goes so low that it is no longer supplied).  Having said that, the EV owners I’ve spoken with say that they got over this anxiety fairly quickly. You simply have to take a moment and plan ahead to ensure you’re not taking a chance of running out of charge. They say that it’s not altogether different than driving with gasoline; you need to be aware of what that needle reads and plan accordingly.

Another point that I found valuable was the reminder that the communications industry had estimated an approximate 2% penetration of cell phones. They had somehow missed the fact that once people have them, use them, and tell their friends about them, there is a very direct route to everyone’s wanting one.

The case here, I believe, will closely parallel cell phones.  EV technology costs are falling, performance is improving, wars in the Middle East are raging, and CO2 levels are rising.  I really don’t know what could happen to make this migration happen any faster.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

PhotobucketAnother benefit of attending the “Business of Plugging In” conference was the opportunity to reconnct with old friends, and to conduct interviews so as to keep my book on renewables moving forward.  Brian Wynne, president of the Electric Drive Transportation Association (EDTA) in Washington DC was good enough to spend an hour with me after his excellent job in moderating a panel discussion on EV migration.  

In the interview, he helped me to understand many of the complications that our democracy adds to the puzzle of renewables and electric transportation, mainly, the need for politicians to show short terms results (according to election cycles) — in an environment that needs sustained, long-term commitments.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

I marvel at how different the 2009 “Business of Plugging In” conference was in comparison to a number of the other shows I’ve attended recently on renewable energy and electric transportation. Perhaps most obvious was the attention on job creation and a return to prosperity, and how economic issues far outweighed discussion about the environment. There was virtually no mention of global warming, and remarkably little discussion of the consequences of US dependency on foreign oil. Of course, to be fair, the show was about (as its name suggests) the business side of the equation. And it’s hard to lose track of the idea that we were in Michigan, the state with the nation’s highest unemployment rate.

What we did hear a lot over the past few days are what I would call “disingenous self-serving platitudes,” which I refer to as DSPs. One that came up a great deal was the idea that the OEMs, policy makers, utilities, and small businesses are collaborating to make the world a better place for car consumers. Oh please. I find that truly nauseating — not because I wouldn’t dearly like to see it, but because the precise opposite is true. Most of these people are busily but quietly building proprietary standards to lock out competitors and lock in profits — at the expense of what might have otherwise been a smooth and robust adoption curve. A frank admission of this obvious fact would have been really refreshing.

There were dozens of other minor examples that I won’t bore you with; as I mentioned yesterday, almost every speaker had some sort of private business agenda that he/she aggressively pressed down upon the audience. But there were real real doozies as well, a short list of which includes:

DSP #1: Toyota said it will bring along plug-in hybrid technology “soon,” a move that is hailed immediately by the moderator as “bold and courageous.”

The Truth: That company could have, and most people would say should have introduced this technology years and years ago. But, already perceived as being green, the company was under no pressure to do so, and chose to milk the profits out of its current technology platform until it was forced to move along.

DSP #2: GM represented itself as strong, focused, and committed to the plug-in market.

The Truth: Every man, woman, and child in the US was forced to buy GM stock at dozens of times its actual fair market value, because of the company’s astonishing lack of focus and commitment to building cars people wanted.  Here’s an article on AutoBlogGreen that goes into more detail.

DSP #3: The governor of the State of Michigan, Jennifer Granholm, proudly announced that Michigan has received about 60% of the total DoE stimulus money aimed at advanced car batteries, explaining that Michigan had effectively made the case that it was committed to a green automotive future.

The Truth: Could she possibly have been serious in this totally outrageous statement? Isn’t this the home of the most vigorous opposition to CAFE standards? Aren’t two of the three Michigan-based OEMs bankrupt precisely because they refused to build environmentally friendly cars that Americans wanted? This was so offensive that I found myself chuckling — softly but audibly. (You should have seen the glares from a few of those within earshot.)

PhotobucketAt a certain point, it looked as if it was going to be a solid three days of misleading self-congratulations, arrogance, and gleeful ignorance. But then Ray Lane of venture capital giant Kleiner Perkins took the stage with an approach that was honest, and diametrically opposed to most of those who had come before, or who would follow. I had the opportunity to thank him for his candor after his talk.

He told the audience that investment in innovation in the renewables space is an absolute imperative, and that, despite the rhetoric, he sees little sincere commitment. He pointed out that the US has made such investment in Internet technology, and has seen the results in terms of dominating that industry with Google, Mircosoft, Oracle, Cisco, etc. However, he showed us that we’ve done very little in renewable energy, and that almost all the top players in solar, wind, geothermal, hydrokinetics, etc., are outside the US.

He’s certainly right: the time for politics and glib language is over. We need to look the issue honestly in the face, knock off the deceit, and deliver technology that people honestly want. There is a ready and willing customer base who can’t wait to start buying, I can assure you.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

As the name suggests, “The Business of Plugging In” conference in Detroit this week was about business — the profit motive — and there is nothing wrong with that. Yet, though there is widespread agreement that the world should migrate to electric vehicles, there is considerable disagreement as to exactly how this should happen and who should profit as a result. There are a great number of directly competitive strategies in terms of products, business models, and charging infrastructures…..and guess what happens when you put their representatives on a stage in the hopes of calmly and dispassionately discussing these issues? Can you say “rabid dogs?”

I’m kidding; it’s all been fairly professional here, but generally, this is a forum for the presentation of ideas that serve the speaker’s ultimate profit-making agenda, so one hears some pretty wild, and, in my way of thinking, unsubstantiated ideas.

George Patacki, Governor of New York from 1995 – 2006, moderated the opening panel, and made what I thought was the single most important point of the day on Tuesday: we live in a country that has wind energy in the plains, solar energy in the southwest, and geothermal in the mountains — but no infrastructure — physical or regulative — to enable our nation to provide all this wonderful capacity to consumers. He’s supporting legislature that will bypass the boundaries of the literally 2000 local and regional utilities and upgrade the grid at a national level and make possible the sharing of renewable energy.

More on this soon.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

PhotobucketMy partner at EV World and good friend Bill Moore and I convene in Detroit this week for the “Business of Plugging In” show, which  runs through Wednesday. Upon my return, I’ll deliver a full report on who’s doing what. For now, I can tell you that the show has been sold out for quite a while, and that the interest in this subject is at an all-time high.

Driven by technology breakthroughs in batteries and ultracapacitors, aggressive policy-making at the federal and state levels, and, of course, the formation for capital enabling thousands of businesses to enter the supply chain at all levels, there is no doubt that electric transportation is coming in a big way, and that it will not be derailed this time.

It won’t be long until consumers all over the world join the early adopters in saying, “No plug? No deal.”

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